The UFC returns for their first card post UFC 259 as they return to the friendly confines of the UFC Apex! Lets pray these picks are better than last weeks., and the week before that. Ive been on a bit of a skid these past two cards. So keep that in mind because you may be wise to fade my picks. Minor set back for a major comeback though!
Here are some specifics. The prelims kick off at 5:00pm on ESPN+. Then the main card kick off at 8pm. And this card is….meh. To be kind
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan600 to get a risk free first time bet up to $600!
53-39-1 so far this year ( 19-12-1 on locks)
(3-5-1 last fight card. 1-2-1 on locks)
Jason Witt +100
Jinh Yu Frey +170
Courtney Casey +130
Nasrat Haqparast -450
Rani Yahya -300
Charles Jourdain -250
Angela Hill (lock) -375
MAIN EVENT TIME
Darren Stewart vs. Eryk Anders
Darren Stewart started off his UFC career with 3 straight losses and a no contest. Since then he sports a respectable 5-3 record with 2 of those losses being split decisions. His latest loss to Kevin Holland was one of those split decision losses. Stewart’s striking ability is his go to, so matching him up with Anders could result in a sneaky good back and forth. But Anders is frustrating to watch. Hes a guy who takes 2 steps forward, only to take 5 steps back. I think Stewart gets this done here.
Darren Stewart (lock) -185
Matheus Nicolau vs. Manel Kape
Kape came into the UFC with so much hype. He even was the stand in for the flyweight title fight this past December. He realized however, that the UFC isn’t RIZN. There are levels to this game. The UFC gave him a stiff test in his first fight when they threw him up against the 4th ranked flyweight in the world (Alexandre Pantoja) but Kape held his own. He took the loss but showed he belonged. Now Kape will welcoming back Matheus Nicolau, who was a casualty of the UFC cutting virtually every flyweight on the roster back in 2018. Nicolau performed well in the UFC, going 3-1. But I think Kape goes out and asserts himself as one of the top 5 flyweights in the division, and that the hype he entered the UFC with is real.
Manel Kape (lock) -135
Jonathan Martinez vs. Davey Grant
Jonathan Martinez put on a clinic when he fought Thomas Almeida. His striking was next level. But Davey Grant’s grappling is something that I think Martinez could have a problem with in the smaller cage of the APEX. Its not like Martinez wont have the space to stick and move, but he will have less of it. I think Grant bullies his way into range and just muscles Martinez into the cage, and eventually onto the ground, where he smothers him in a pretty boring affair.
Davey Grant +260
Dan Ige vs. Gavin Tucker
Dan Ige is 14-3 and for whatever reason, I dont view him as a legit threat. And he’s starting to get real tests. The first was Edson Barboza’s featherweight debut which he “won”…..uh huh. He then got pieced up by Calvin Kattar for 5 rounds. And Saturday night he will be smothered for three rounds by Gavin Tucker. Whos a monster on the mat and whose transitions are insane. To be fair to Ige, Ige is a step up in competition for Tucker. Tucker has never fought anyone with his resume before. Ige has definitely had the tougher fights. But I love Tucker to do what he does; Smother his opponent for a unanimous victory, or grind his opponent down until he gets the tap.
Gavin Tucker (lock) +130
Misha Cirkunov vs. Ryan Spann
I can’t believe this is the co-main event but its the card after a PPV so this is what we get. A guy in Cirkunov who hasn’t fought since 2019 taking on the up and coming Ryan Spann. We should know how this one is going to play out pretty early on. If Spann is able to keep his distance and use his striking effectively then he should be able to finish Cirkunov. But if Cirkunov gets the takedown then watch out. You also have to wonder how much the weight cut effected Spann. Even with all that, Ill go with Spann getting back in the win column, catching Cirkunov and finishing with a TKO victory.
Ryan Spann +105
Leon Edwards vs. Belal Muhammad
Credit to Belal Muhammad for taking this fight. Originally it was scheduled to be Leon Edwards VS Khamzat Chimaev. But that fell through…..and then fell through again….and again. Muhammad stepped in after a very impressive victory against Dhiego Lima where he just dominated Lima for 15 minutes. Edwards aint Lima. Thank you Belal Muhammad for taking this fight and getting Leon Edwards back in the octagon. Your sacrifice tonight will not go unnoticed.
Leon Edwards (lock) -250
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $228,728 (+228628)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $3,589 (+3489)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $6,372 (+6272)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $1,093 (+993) But UFC fighters have a had a key all year long to my “locks” because they havent been that good…
Odds subject to change. Good luck!