The UFC returns for UFC 259. A packed card, featuring three title fights, headlined by Middleweight champion Israel Adesanya going up in weight to challenge for the light weight championship against Jan Błachowicz Its a 15 fight card featuring a local guy! Lets pray these picks are better than last weeks. You were a winner if you faded my trash. Minor set back for a major comeback though!
Here are some specifics. The early prelims kick off at 5:15pm on ESPN+ and ESPN2. Then the prelims kick off at 8pm, With the main card starting at 10pm on PPV. Everything can be seen on ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan100 and bet $1 on on Izzy to beat Jan and if you win your wager you’ll win $100 in free bets!
46-31-1 so far this year ( 15-11-1 on locks)
(3-5-1 last fight card. 1-2-1 on locks)
Mario Bautista -250
Uros Medic -185
Amanda Lemos -250
Sean Brady (lock) -225
Carlos Ulberg -250
Tim Elliot -120
Kai Kara-France (lock) -140
Joseph Benavidez +110
Song Yadong (lock) -160
Casey Kenney -140
MAIN EVENT TIME
Thiago Santos vs. Alexsandar Rakic
THIS. IS. A. SCRAP. These two guys can throw bombs….which means itll go to a three round decision because MMA doesnt make sense. You could make the case Thiago Santos beat Jon Jones on shredded knees. The man with a sledgehammer tattoo on his chest made Jones feel every one of those shots he threw in his five round title fight that he ultimately lost on the judges score cards. On the other side Alexsandar Rakic enters this fight with a 13-2 record. His most recent loss was against Volkan Oezdemir in a split decision loss that I personally had Rakic winning. This is a fight of a guy riding a streak, and another guy trying to get in the win column again. But I like Santos to get back into the win column in what you figure will be a primarily stand up striking battle. The small octagon should help this be a barn burner.
Thiago Santos +140
Islam Makhachev vs. Drew Dober
Drew Dober enters this fight on a nice three fight win streak. He trains at one of the best camps for fighters (Team Elevation.) His striking is impressive and he has an ability to tag his opponents face and tag it often. It still wont be enough. Islam Makhachev trains with former champion Khabib Nurmagomedov, and when you watch Makhachev you can see the comparison. He just mauls opponts. I see him pushing Dober against the cage and instilling his will against him for 15 minutes.
Islam Makhachev (lock) -450
Petr Yan (C) vs. Aljamain Sterling
This is a real tough one. Petr Yan is impressive, hes the champion. He dominated Jose Aldo in his first title defense, but questions still remain because Aldo got the fight coming off a loss. Sterling on the other hand is finally getting his title fight 7 years after entering the UFC and he has never looked better. He entered his fight against Cory Sandhagen and dominated him in 90 seconds. Taking Sandhagen’s back and submitting him. His grappling game is next level. He strangles his opponents. Which makes this fight so intriguing because its a striker VS grappler fight. And in a small octagon I would think it would favor Sterling. But Im going Yan. I think Yan is going to piece up Sterling on the feet, frustrating Sterling by stuffing takedowns, and winning in a decision. I could completely see one round where Sterling does get Yan down and take his back and get close to a submission but ultimately Yan is saved by the bell. I like Yan to hear “And Still”
Petr Yan -120
Amanda Nunes (C) vs. Megan Anderson
This is how dominant Amanda Nunes is. In her last two fights (Felicia Spencer and Germaine de Randamie) she went the full five rounds, getting the decision win. She chose to do that. No seriously. She said in each time “I wanted to prove I could go 5 rounds after hearing some people say I couldnt.” Thats insane. And watching both fights, thats exactly what it looked like. A cat toying with a mouse. She is the most dominant woman weve ever seen in an octogan and the person to beat her isnt Megan Anderson. Its not often I say the value is with the -900 favorite, but the value is with the -900 favorite.
Amanda Nunes (lock) -900
Jan Blachowicz (C) vs. Israel Adesanya
Izzy has dismantled every fighter in his path. So much so that there’s no one really left for him at 185 who deserves a shot. So while Izzy waits for that division to sort it self out, and a contender to emerge, you might as well go up in weight and challenge for the light weight championship. Many thought this day would come, but we would be seeing Izzy go against Jon Jones. Jones is heading to heavyweight which left a vacated title that Blachowicz won in a knockout, flawless performance against Dominic Reyes.
This isn’t a normal Izzy fight. He enters this fight under weight, and under sized. Blachowicz is clearly the bigger fighter. Hell, Izzy weight in at 200 for the 205 limit. This is also a counter puncher going against a counter puncher. But logic would tell you that the natural light weight (Jan) hits harder. Izzy has dealt with some hard punchers before (his last fight against Costa comes to mind right away) but hes found a way. Izzy, along with his coach Eugene Bareman have had great gameplans for each fight Izzy has had in the UFC octagon. And truthfully I have picked against Jan in three of his last four fights.
The smaller octagon SHOULD benefit Blachowicz. But Izzy’s ability to stick and move. His ability to use his range effectively, and his ability to counter is just on another level. I think hes the best pound for pound male fighter in the sport, and i’m going Izzy to win by TKO stoppage in the championship rounds (4th or 5th)
Israel Adesanya -250
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $93,913 (+93813)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $11,226 (+11126)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $836 (+736)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $546 (+446) But UFC fighters have a had a key all year long to my “locks” because they havent been that good…
Odds subject to change. Good luck!