The UFC returns with their first PPV in what feels like forever. In reality its only been about 7 weeks. But this card is a good one. Headlined by Alexander Volkanovski taking on Brian Ortega for the featherweight title. There is also the “fight” between Valentina Shevchenko vs Lauren Murphy. More on that later.
Here are some specifics.The early-prelims start at 6:00 pm with the officail prelims kicking off at 8pm and the main card starting at 10pm and everything can be seen on ESPN+ and the PPV will run you $70.
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $1K
195-135-1 so far this year ( 60-41-1 on locks, which I should start calling “Bagsters” because theyre complete trash)
(7-6-1 last fight card. 2-1 on locks)
Nick Maximov (lock)
Taila Santos (lock)
Merab Dvalishvili (lock)
MAIN EVENT TIME
Jessica Andrade vs. Cynthia Calvillo
A former champion who is trying to back to the the belt (albeit, in a new division) taking on a 9-2-1 fighter trying to get her first shot at the belt. Andrade VS Calvillo should be a decent scrap. Andrade DID get a shot at 125 pound champion Valentina Shevchenko. And got worked. Nothing to be embarrased about, it happens to literally everyone the champ fights. Calvillo has been “one fight away” a few times, and has always come up short. That wont change Saturday. In Andrade she is facing an absolute tank that is ALWAYS a threat to put her opponent to sleep. Thats rare in the womens division. She did it to 115 pound champion Rose Namajunas when she won the belt. She believes that if she touches Schevchenko with the right shot, then she will be holding the belt. I dont believe thats the case, but I do believe she will touch Calvillo enough that she will want out of the fight. Andrade by knockout.
Jessica Andrade (lock)
Curtis Blaydes vs. Jairzinho Rozenstruik
Here are the people that Rozenstruik has lost to: Francis Ngannou (the champion) and Ciyrl Gane (the interim champion.) Thats it. On the flip side, Curtis Blaydes has only lost to Ngannou, and Derrick Lewis, who just fought for the interim title. All this is to say that these two fighters could be next in line for a shot at the winner of Gane vs. Ngannou. Rozenstruik has shown an ability to knock his opponents out in epic fashion. His power is legit. And Blaydes, while being knocked out by big punchers like Ngannou and Lewis, usually rag dolls his opponent and Rozenstruik hasnt faces a wrestler of Blaydes’ caliber. If this were 5 rounds I probably would pick Rozenstruik. But in a three round fight I think Blaydes takes Rozenstruik down and keeps him there. Learned from past mistakes of getting caught as he enters.
Nick Diaz vs. Robbie Lawler
The last time Nick Diaz fought was over 6 years ago. The last time he won a fight was almost 10 years ago. Robbie Lawler meanwhile is on a 4 fight losing streak, but hes been active. Lawler has fought 8 times since the last time we saw Diaz in the cage and I think the question is, what exactly are you getting in Diaz? I think Lawler is absolutely cooked. But I also think a 6 year layoff is substantial. I dont think Diaz was sitting at home on the couch, but at 38 years old, and with that long of a layoff, I think Robbie Lawler takes this absolute side show.
Robbie Lawler (lock)
Valentina Shevchenko (C) vs. Lauren “Barb” Murphy
This is the lock of the century. The only way to make money on this is by betting Shevchenko to get the finish. And it should come in less than 3 rounds. No one in that division is on her level.
Valentina Shevchenko (lock)
Alexander Volkanovski (C) vs. Brian Ortega
The fake feud that was formed during the ultimate fighter finally gets settled on Saturday as Volkanovski defends his belt for the 2nd time by taking on T-City Brian Ortega. This is Ortega’s second shot at claiming UFC gold, as he was outclassed by Max Holloway in 2018. But the evolution of Ortega was seen in his fight with the Korean Zombie. He showed improved striking and has Zombie completely guessing. Volkanovski meanwhile beat, in my opinion the best featherweight ever, Max Holloway twice. This is a VERY even fight.
But I like Ortega. I think Ortega has more tools in the tool box. Hes never been knocked out, his fight against Holloway was stopped. Then again, to be fair, he never has faced anyone with the knockout power of Volkanovski. But adding in Ortega’s improved striking with his exceptional submission game, I think he eventually gets ahold of Volkanovski and before the champ realizes whats going on, Ortega has a hold, or a choke on him. Ortega needs to watch out for the lethal kicking game of Volkanovski. His legs are like tree trunks and thats going to make it hard to take the champion down. But I think if Ortega can check the kicks, his striking will set up his takedowns.
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- f you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $22,135 (+22035)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $2,806 (+2706)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $788(+688)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $695 (+595)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!