The farewell tour for Nate Diaz The “Loser Leaves Town match is labeled “UFC 279” but we all know what it is. Not a great PPV card. Definitely not worth the money you would pay to see it. So split it with friends or go to a bar. Thats the biggest lock of the night.

Here are some specifics. The early prelims being at 6pm with the prelims at 8:oo pm and the main card at 10pm . All of it is on ESPN+ and its going to cost $75

I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $1K

156-110-1 this year. 54-27 on locks.

In 2021 I hit on 60% of picks. In 2021 I hit on 61% of “locks” (so a lot of people had keys to that lock.)

(6-5-1 last fight card. 2-2 on locks)

PRELIMS

Darian Weeks

Elise Reed

Heili Alateng

Norma Dumont (lock)

Jake Collier

Jamie Pickett

Jailton Almeida

Hakeem Dawodu

MAIN CARD

• Ion Cutelaba vs. Johnny Walker

  It seems like it wasnt too long ago that Johnny Walker was the future of the division. Then he ran into Corey Anderson and you thought “ah, its a blip on the radar.” But Corey Anderson started off what is now a 1-4 skid for Walker. But there might be some hope. Walker recently stated that he was taking CBD and was unknowingly allergic to it. He was “poisoning” himself for the last 3 years. (his words not mine.)

  You may buy into that. And while I think its an excuse, it may make sense? I also dont think much of Ion Cutelaba. So factor that in, and I think Walker gets back in the win column.

  Johnny Walker

• Irene Aldana vs. Macy Chiasson

  I really like this fight. Im high on both women but the weight is a factor. This fight is being fought at 135 pounds and Chiasson is normally a featherweight. She should come into the fight bigger, much bigger. I think because of that Aldana struggles to get this fight to the ground and Chiasson picks her apart on the feet from the outside. But honestly we should know how this fight will go pretty early on.

  Macy Chiasson

• Li Jingliang vs. Daniel Rodriguez

  Another fight where I really like the matchup. Kevin Holland is such a fun fighter to watch because he doesnt stop talking. Its entertaining to hear a fighter hold a full conversation while getting into a fist fight. But his mouth sometimes makes people forget how good he is. But his calling card is knockouts, and Daniel Rodriguez has never been knocked out. Holland though is finally cutting weight so thats not to say Holland cant knock out a guy whos used to fighting at 170 when he was knocking out guys at 185.But this fight is also at a catch weight. So the weight advantage should still be in Hollands corner but it wont be as pronounced. I also give the edge to Rodriguez for coaching. He has one of the best coaches in all of MMA in James Krause. So in a nutshell, this is a very interesting fight. But Ill take Holland. For no other reason than I liked what I saw from his last fight with his improved wrestling and takedown defense.

  Kevin Holland

  Lets try this again. “The Leech” was originally supposed to fight a much smaller Tony Ferguson. Now hes facing Daniel Rodriguez who weighed in nearly 10 pounds more than him. The size advantage will be VERY real. Its one that I dont think Jingliang will be able to overcome. Hes a good fighter, not a great fighter. I think Rodriguez has just about every advantage in this one.

  Daniel Rodriguez (LOCK)

• Kevin Holland vs. Khamzat Chimaev

  Now we get to the part of the card where the UFC is getting outspoken veteran fighters out of the promotion. Putting Tony Ferguson at 170 should be a crime.

  Li Jingliang (lock)

  Lets try this again. Kevin Holland and Chimaev have bad blood dating back to 2020. Chimaev was (and sort of still is) the “boogey man” of the division. Having had more fights in the UFC than strikes against him. They exchanged words in the hotel in Abu Dhabi and most recently got into a backstage kerfuffle. So when Fat Chimaev showed up nearly  8 pounds over the weight limit, this matchup made a lot of sense. Holland had already made weight at 180.

  I love Kevin Holland. I look forward to him fighting every single time hes matched up. But this….this is a TERRIBLE matchup. 5 rounds with Chimaev who, you could argue, DIDNT cut weight….thats gonna suck for Holland. Holland showed improved takedown defense in his last fight, but there are levels to this game and Holland just isnt there yet. If he catches Chimaev it could get interesting, but I fear that he wont even get the chance. This very well could look a lot like when Holland fought Corey Anderson and just got wrestled to death for 5 rounds. Fat Chimaev to finish

  Khamzat Chimaev (LOCK) 

• Nate Diaz vs. Tony Ferguson

  Nate’s gonna get murked and its gonna be ugly. Chimaev ends this one and with it, Nates UFC run.
  
  Khamzat Chimaev (lock)

  “Loser leaves town!” If this were 2016….or even 2017 then this would be a banger of a fight. Instead its too old, aging legends of the sport who just arent very good anymore. Both of these guys could very well be fighting their last fight in the promotion, with many (myself included) thinking that the promotion was setting them up to fail with the original matchups.

  But Nate has fought at 170. Tony hasnt. This is going to look a lot like when McGregor faught Diaz and while it was at 170, Diaz probably weight 20 pounds more in the octagon. So I think Ferguson is able to bloody Nate up, but eventually Nate’s striking takes over and he puts Ferguson out to pasture.

  Nate Diaz (LOCK)

• Parlays

  Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!

  if you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $286,827 (+286727)
  If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $2,886 (+2786)
  Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $9,937 (+9837)
  And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $183 (-120)

  Odds subject to change. Good luck!

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