The UFC returns to the Vegas APEX after a week long break with a deep card. Very deep. Not a good card, but the UFC went quantity over quality. Its headlined by a fight that I dont think anyone was really asking for, but were getting anyway. Rozenstruik VS Sakai. Look, its not a good card but you can still bet on it. I’ll say this, the odds for this card are so lopsided. There arent a lot of fights that are -120 VS +110. But were here to make money. Not overthink it
Here are some specifics.The prelims start at 4pm and then the main card kick off at 4pm on ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan600 and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $600
111-81-4 so far this year ( 35-22-3 on locks)
(6-6 last fight card. 3-1 on locks)
PRELIMS
Jordan Leavitt -200
Sean Woodson -190
Manon Fiorot -550
Mason Jones (lock) -300
Muslim Salikhov -250
Tanner Boser -200
Ariane Lipski +210
Makwan Amirkhani (lock) -200
Tom Breese -250
MAIN EVENT TIME
Duško Todorović VS Gregory Rodrigues
Gregory Rodrigues makes his UFC debut and the UFC gave him no favors. Todorovic is coming off his first loss but other than that blemish on his record hes shown a propensity to put guys away weather its on the feet or making them tap. I dont think Rodrigues has improved his game enough to go in there and fight Todorovic on short notice. This was originally slated to be Todorovic VS Maki Pitolo and that fight is much more even. This….is not.
Dusko Todorovic (lock) -135
Santiago Ponzinibbio VS Miguel Baeza
Man, this one is tough. Because both guys are a problem. This has fight of the night written all over it. But this is a GIANT step up for Baeza. Ponzinibbio is no (washed up) Matt Brown. Or Takashi Sato. Ponzinibbio has beaten some of the best of the best. His big issue was a 2 year layoff from the sport, and when he returned he got knocked out. Baeza is a guy who can knock you out OR submit you. And I think the most impressive thing about Baeza is his patience as he sets up his opponents. But I think Ponzinibbio gets back in the win column. I like the vet over the up and comer based on experience alone.
Santiago Ponzinibbio +100
Roman Dolidze VS Laureano Staropoli
Staropoli took this fight on short notice. Which is bold because hes staring at a 3 fight losing streak. And even thought Dolidze is coming off a loss, I think Dolidze puts it on Staropoli who is moving up in weight to take the fight.
Roman Dolidze -140
Marcin Tybura VS Walt Harris
I will always be appreciative of Marcin Tybura for TKO’ing uber POS Greg Hardy. But lost in Hardy turtling up, and justice being served, was the fact that that win was the 4th in a row for Tybura. I really thought Harris would beat Volkov in his last fight. Losing to Overeem with everything that happened to his step daughter was understandable. But Volkov just put it on him. And Tybura has an incredible ability to get fighters to fight HIS fight. He lulls them into a web. I dont find his fights very entertaining (sans the Hardy fight) but I think he frustrates Harris to a decision win.
Marcin Tybura -175
Jairzinho Rozenstruik VS Augsto Sakai
Sakai has an impressive list of beaten opponents including the guy in the co-main event Marcin Tybura. But Rozenstruik is different. The best way I can describe him is a very poor man’s N’gannou. VERY POOR MAN. This is going to be really simple. Rozenstruik has one punch power. If he connects, you go to sleep. He doesnt have much else. Hes not very versatile. On the flip side, in Sakai’s 15 wins, 11 have come by knock out. This could very well come down to which man hits hardest and I think that answer is Rozenstruik
Jairzinho Rozenstruik -125
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $83,260 (+82260)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $4,932 (+4832)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $1,688 (+1588)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $348 (+248)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!