UFC 265 Betting Guide
A “why are we doing this” main event is the headliner on a pretty deep card. UFC 265 isn’t one for the casual MMA fan, but the quality of fights from top to bottom is very strong. I don’t think the card is worth buying OUTRIGHT, but I definitely think its worth splitting with some friends, or hitting up a local establishment thats showing the fights.
Here are some specifics.The early prelims start at 6pm with the prelims kicking off at 8pm and then the the main card starts at 10pm and everything can be seen on ESPN+ for $70
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $600
161-110-2 so far this year ( 50-34-1 on locks, which I should start calling “Bagsters” because theyre complete trash)
(4-4-1 last fight card.1-2 on locks)
PRELIMS
Johnny Munoz Jr. -300 (Lock/Bagster)
Melissa Gato +100
Miles Johns -225 (lock/bagster)
Manel Kape -200
Jessica Penne +115
Alonzo Menefield -250
Vince Morales -105
Rafael Fiziev -300 (lock/bagster)
MAIN EVENT TIME
Casey Kenney vs. Yadong Song
2 of the best bantamweight prospects in the division are getting after it. Song has been fighting high level competition for a while and hes only 23 years old, which is scary. On the other side Casey Kenney got a step up in competition for his last fight and lost to former champion Dominick Cruz. Under the UFC banner though hes only lost to a former champ (Cruz) and a guy no one wants to fight (Merab Dvalishvilli). Song would like to keep this standing up, and Kenney in his recent fights has shown a willingness to do that. But I think Kenney’s path to victory is his wrestling and transition game. We should know pretty early on what kind of fight this is going to be, but I think Kenney gets hit by Song’s power and realizes he should adjust the game plan and then he proceeds to smother Song for 3 rounds.
Casey Kenney. -125 (lock/bagster)
Tecia Torres vs. Angela Hill
Everytime Tecia Torres has had a step up in competition she hasnt been able to deliver. Andrade, Jedrzejczyk, Zhang, Marina Rodriguez. Now, in her defense those are the best of the best. But shes riding a 2 fight win streak and Angela Hill is in the way of making it 3 in a row. Hill is in a similar way. Her opportunities to go from mid level fighter to contender have been stunted by losses. I think Torres continues her win streak. Her level of competition has been tougher than Hill. But this could truly go either way because these two women are evenly matched
Tecia Torres -140
Vicente Luque vs. Michael Chiesa
Since moving to 170, Chiesa is undefeated. Hes a prime example of what a tough weight cut can do to a premier fighter on fight night. He looked emaciated making 155 but looks much healthier fighting at 170 and its resulted in him being 4-0 in the division. But he has yet to face the punching power of Vicente Luque. Luque’s striking is next level, and he punishes his opponents face. Its not like Chiesa has poor striking, but much like the Kenney V Song fight, this should be obvious quickly of how it goes. If Chiesa can get Luque down then he should be able to use his elite grappling. Much like he did with Neil Magny, who was a better striker than Chiesa. Chiesa mauled him for 5 rounds. I think Chiesa is able to stave off Luque’s punching power and get the decision.
Michael Chiesa -110
Jose Aldo vs. Pedro Munhoz
Aldo really looked like the cut to 135 was a tough one, and it might be, but it doesnt really show in the cage. His first fight against Marlon Moraes didnt go his way, but many thought he shouldve gotten a decision win. The UFC, who seems to feel bad that their first featherweight champion got KO’d in 13 seconds by McGregor 6 years ago, once again gave him a title shot. A rare title shot after a loss. It went about as well as Aldo’s last few (FORCED) title shots. He got wrecked in the championship rounds to Petr Yan. But Pedro Munhoz aint Petr Yan.
Pedro Munhoz is a very very good fighter. His win against former champ Cody Garbrandt put him into title contention. But then he lost to Aljamain Sterling (the champion) and Frankie Edgar. He rebounded with his most recent fight against Jimmy Rivera, who is in the same group as Munhoz and Aldo. Three veteran fighters who dont realize theyre now gate keepers. And while I never think Aldo ever holds a title again, I think he chops Munhoz down at the legs, completely taking away Munhoz’ power shots, and winning this one. Knowing the UFC theyll give him a title shot.
Jose Aldo -115
Ciryl Gane vs. Derrick Lewis
This fight is the UFC putting a hallow fake “interim” title belt on the line for a great fight. But it feels gross because Francis Ngannou isnt fighting. So it just feels like youre getting the bait and switch. Its the UFC thinking that they cant have a PPV without a belt on the line. Maybe thats true, but it still feels extremely forced. But to the actual breakdown
Ciryl Gane is the better mixed martial artist in every way. But Derrick Lewis has “shut your lights out power.” So the clear pick is Gane, but if youre going to pick Lewis pick him to finish it via KO. Because there is no way that Derrick Lewis wins a 5 round decision against Ciryl Gane. I think theres a good chance that Gane wins every round on the score cards but Lewis’ big shots take a toll on Gane and he gets finished in the later rounds. Picking Gane, but if you pick Lewis the payout on him to win by KO is the play
Ciryl Gane -350
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- f you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $64,105 (+64005)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $4,527 (+4427)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $1,416 (+1316)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $462 (+362)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
