UFC 264 Betting Guide
The rubber match between Conor McGregor and Dustin Poirier goes down July 10th as the light weights put an end to their rivalry. These two faught just 6 months ago and it saw Conor McGregor get knocked out for the first time in his career.
Here are some specifics.The early prelims start at 6pm and then the prelims kick off at 8pm. The main card starts at 10pm and will cost you $70 via ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $600
142-100-1 so far this year ( 45-27-1 on locks)
(8-4 last fight card. 4-0 on locks)
PRELIMS
Alen Amedovski -125
Zhalgas Zhumagulov -350
Omari Akhmedov (lock) +140
Jennifer Maia (lock) -190
Dricus Du Plessis -120
Ryan Hall +195
Michel Periera (lock) -165
Carlos Condit+165
MAIN EVENT TIME
Sean O’Malley VS Kris Moutinho
This should be a slaughter. Originally scheduled to be O’Malley VS Louis Smolka (which I thought was an easy matchup for O’Malley) the UFC decided to protect their investment by giving him Kris Moutinho….exactly. Tons of fighters asked to replace Smolka. Fighters with name pedigree. But the UFC went with CFFC’s Moutinho. This should be a one way road that ends with another highlight reel knockout by “Suga.” The only reason I am not making this a lock is we have now seen O’Malley deal with drop foot twice in his short career. The right leg kick from anyone, and we will see it again. But take O’Malley by KO
Sean O’Malley -900
Irene Aldana VS Yana Kunitskaya
This fight was a toss up before the weigh ins. But then Aldana came in 3.5 pounds over. And most fighters say the last 4 pounds is the actual cut. This is not to say that Aldana didnt attempt to cut weight, but I do wonder how HARD she tried. She didnt look great on the scale. But that is the big question going into this one. How much did the cut effect her. Pure gut pick here, Im going to go Yana Kunitskaya. Aldana on the scale looked bad and Yana looked good her last two fights. Although they were close decisions and she did face adversity. But PURE GUT PICK
Yana Kunitskaya +100
Greg “Ultimate Scumbag” Hardy VS Tai Tuivasa
I hate this matchup, because I think it actually favors Hardy. I talked about the UFC “protecting their investment” earlier with O’Malley, and I feel like theyre doing the same with this one, giving Hardy the guy he called out in Tuivasa. In his last fight Hardy faced a legit mixed martial artist. Not a tomato can, or a guy whos just going to stand and trade. But a legit mixed martial artist. And it was so beautiful. Enjoy the clip below, especially if you’re a woman
Enjoy this clip of Greg Hardy getting pounded out by Marcin Tybura at #UFCVegas17 pic.twitter.com/Z2u2RqGcbI
— MMA Mania (@mmamania) December 20, 2020
But in Tuivasa, hes a guy who doesn’t have many layers to him. Quite simply, this is going to come down to who hits more accurately. Because one of these guys is going to sleep. So while the UFC is giving Hardy another fighter that fits his style, I will still go with Tuivasa, based on experience, level of competition, and the fact that winning money off a guy like Greg Hardy is gross.
Tai Tuivasa -145
Stephen Thompson VS Gilbert Burns
In his first fight since getting knocked out by champion Kamaru Usman, Burns looks to get back in the win column against Wonderboy Thompson. Burns earned his title shot after going through an absolute tear of the welterweight division. But in front of him is a guy whos been here for a while, and has been fighting at a top level in the division.
Stephen Thompson has a special ability. And that ability is to make a lot of guys look REALLY bad. Hes tough to figure out. And with his long limbs, hes tough to close the distance on. I thought he beat Darren Till. He was piecing up Anthony Pettis until Pettis landed a superman shot from hell. And while this is all “coulda woulda shoulda” Thompson should be heading into this fight on a 5 fight win streak.
Burns is a beast, and he can put you to sleep with one good shot. He was close to doing that to Usman. But I think Thompson symies his offense and gets the win, and likely the winner of Usman VS Covington
Stephen Thompson (lock) -160
Conor McGregor VS Dustin Poirier
In their last fight, it just looked like McGregor was waiting for Poirier to fall. And who could blame him? He was coming off a TKO win at 170. But Dustin took his shots, fired back, and stuck to his gameplan. A game plan that included chewing up Conor’s lead leg. You can see it in their fight 6 months ago. Conor goes to turn and his leg is dead. His back up to the cage. Dustin eventually put McGregor to sleep.
What scares me for McGregor is the fact that all we heard leading up to their last fight was how “dialed in” Conor was. How he was taking the fight extremely seriously. And yet he failed to check leg kicks. Because I truly believe his own bravado got in the way. He was more focused on playing offense that he completely ignored defense.
If McGregor wants to win he has to go back to the old Conor. He needs to get back to the fighter that constantly switched his stances and flowed. The one who let the KO shot come to him, and not the fighter hes evolved into. A fighter who is looking to add to his legacy by KO’ing an opponent quicker than he KO’d Aldo.
In some ways McGregor is back. He certainly sounded like the old Conor at the press conference on Thursday. Although that was kind of pathetic and Dustin played it perfectly. He looked like a guy who was not fazed at all by McGregor’s repeated insults. Why would he be though? He put McGregor to sleep.
I don’t see much changing. I think Conor is going to come out super aggressive. Fail to knock out Poirier. Empty his gas tank by throwing a ton of power shots. and lose in a 5 round decision.
Dustin Poirier -125
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- f you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $133,442 (+133342)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $12,150 (+12050)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $1,098 (+998)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $956 (+856)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
