We get the return of Darren Till at middleweight as he takes on veteran Derek Brunson in rare DAY MMA. This card doesn’t necessarily have a lot of names that the casual MMA fans will recognize, but its very deep with guys who could be headlining cards very soon.
Here are some specifics.The prelims start at 1:30 pm with the main card starts at 4pm and everything can be seen on ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $1K
184-124-2 so far this year ( 56-38-1 on locks, which I should start calling “Bagsters” because theyre complete trash)
(9-3 last fight card. 3-0 on locks)
Charles Jourdain (lock)
Jack Shore (lock)
MAIN EVENT TIME
Luigi Vendramini vs. Paddy Pimblett
Paddy Pimblett comes into his UFC debut with so much hype. Like Conor McGregor, hes coming from Cage Warriors where he was the featherweight champion (he actually beat another guy on this card, Julian Erosa.) He posts a 16-3 record and his work on the mat is impressive. He can put an opponent to sleep or submit them. And thats whats going to happen. Nothing against Luigi Vendramini but the UFC is going to groom Pimblett the way theyre grooming Sean O’Malley. Giving him favorable opponents and trying to build another star. Pimblett submits him in the second round.
Paddy Pimblett (lock)
Khalil Rountree vs. Modestas Bukauskas
Like Pimblett, Bukauskas was a high profile signing by the UFC from Cage Warriors. He won his debut to improve to 12-3. But then he ran into back to back losses. Getting knocked out by Jimmy Crute (which is nothing to be ashamed of) and then losing a split decision against Michał Oleksiejczuk. So to me, putting him up against Khalil Rountree is a “get right fight.”
Its not like Rountree cant put you to sleep. He certainly can. But Khalil Rountree is what he is. He really hasnt improved since entering the UFC and I think his ceiling is being ranked 15th one day. Because of this, I think the UFC set this up to get Bukauskas BACK in the win column.
Modestas Bukauskas (lock)
David Zawada vs. Alex Morono
This might be the toughest fight to pick on the card. Morono is coming off his best career win as he stepped in late to face Cowboy Cerrone and dismantled him in less than a round. Since training with Fortis MMA he really has improved his game. Zawada is legit. If he takes your back youre in trouble. He doesnt necessarily have the name recognition, but hes had some tough losses. This is a grappler VS striker and I will take Morono but I wont be putting a ton of money on it.
Tom Aspinall vs. Sergey Spivak
I am VERY high on both of these fighters. I hate they are facing each other so soon. Aspinall has legit knock out power, and in his last fight he submitted former champ Andrei Arlovski. On the other side Sergey Spivak is a bit undersized for the heavyweight division but hes insanely skilled. He strangles opponents with his grappling ability and and he tends to maul opponents. He can take a punch but he wears his opponents out. That’s the reasons I am picking Spivak. Aspinall hasnt been out of the 2nd round, as hes just been that dominant. I think Spivak weathers the storm and wears him down. BUT, I do fear with this prediction that Aspinall wins the first 2 rounds convincingly, wears out in the third, and ultimately wins a decision. So I would suggest Aspinall by decision, Spivak by finish. But for the sake of the wins and losses I will go with Spivak
Derek Brunson vs. Darren Till
I was concerned when Darren Till moved up to middleweight. He needed to, he looked emaciated at welterweight, so this is a more natural weight. But the UFC threw him in there against Kelvin Gastelum in a fight I was convinced he would lose. And he didnt. He proved that he belonged in the division. The next welterweight fight was against the former (and next title contender) Robert Whittaker. Till lost a decision in a pretty boring fight, but you saw the respect that guys in the division have for him.
On the other side youve got Derek Brunson who is a gate keeper for the division. Hes riding a 4 fight win streak with his last loss coming against the current champion Israel Adesanya. Brunson’s path to victory is the same as Tyron Woodley’s when he fought Till, its to wrestle and smother. Its not as if Till is a slouch on the mat, but that is how Brunson has won his last 4 fights. In a 5 round fight though, hes going to have to pace himself. And while I think Brunson has early success, I think eventually he gasses out and Till takes it in the championship rounds.
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- f you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $32,898 (+32798)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $1,442 (+1342)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $2,281 (+2181)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $501 (+333)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!