UFC 269 Betting Guide
The last PPV of the year comes your way this weekend with two title fights on the line. UFC 269 is headlined by lightweight champion Charles Oliveira taking on Dustin Poirier. But you also will see Amanda Nunes taking on Juliana Pena for the 135 point strap.
Here are some specifics. The early-prelims start at 5:30 pm with the prelims starting at 8pm and the main card kicking off at 10pm. everything can be seen on ESPN+ with the PPV costing you $70.
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan and get your first bet RISK FREE up to $1K
244-162-2 so far this year ( 80-49-1 on locks)
(8-5 last fight card. 1-2 on locks)
PRELIMS
Gillian Robertson
Randy Costa (lock)
Ryan Hall
Alex Perez
Miranda Maverick
Andre Muniz (lock)
Jordan Wright
Augusto Sakai
Dominick Cruz
Josh Emmett
MAIN EVENT TIME
Sean O’Malley vs. Raulian Paiva
The “Suga Show” returns to take on Raulian Paiva in his second fight at 135. Paiva kicked off his bantamweight debut by defeating a really good young fighter in Kyler Philips. Dont get fooled by the fact that Paiva did most of his work at 125, hes super legit. Hes a problem. The question will be can he handle the striking ability of O’Malley.
Some of the criticism about O’Malley is the fact that he has been picking easy opponents. In fairness to O’Malley, his last opponent fell through and he got a last minute opponent. But Paiva is O’Malley’s second toughest test since Chito Vera. So dont sleep on Paiva. O’Malley being a -310 favorite is absurd. I think he wins, but sprinkle some money on Paiva. ESPECIALLY with O’Malley’s problems with drop foot. (which is why I will never make him a lock.) Paiva doesnt usually rely on leg kicks and I do think O’Malley’s striking is elite
Sean O’Malley
Cody Garbrandt vs. Kai Kara-France
Cody Garbrandt makes his flyweight debut and isnt getting a gimme fight, as he takes on Kai Kara-France. The question here is how will the weight cut effect Garbrandt? The other question is, how slow will he start? Lately, Garbrandt has been a slow starter and thats an issue in a 3 round fight. Even in his last win against Raphael Assunção I thought he was losing until the buzzer beater at the end of the second round. I do think Garbrandt’s power is going to show up in this fight. I dont think hes better than Moreno and Figueiredo, but I do think hes better than KKF
Cody Garbrandt
Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Geoff Neal
Im very high on Santiago Ponzinibbio. I think hes one of the better welterweights, and one that not a ton of people discuss. Now, Geoff Neal is legit lights out power, but hes on a 2 fight losing streak as he was neutered by Stephen Thompson and Neil Magny. I think the same thing happens in this fight. I think Neal is a good welterweight. I dont think hes a great welterweight. And I think Ponzinibbio is. I think Ponzinibbio dismantles him
Santiago Ponzinibbio (lock)
Amanda Nunes (C) vs. Julianna Pena
….. cmon.
Amanda Nunes (lock)
Charles Oliveira (C) vs. Dustin Poirier
A champion coming in as an underdog. Many MMA fans look at Charles Oliveira as a place holder for the rightful champion Dustin Poirier. And who could blame them? Dustin’s hit list is a who’s who of former champions. Conor McGregor twice. Eddie Alvarez twice. Justin Gaethje, Max Holloway, Anthony Pettis. But Oliveira is a PROBLEM. He showed his skill set by knocking out Michael Chandler to win the title. Most (including me) thought if Oliveira would finish Chandler it would be with his ground game.
But the game plan that ATT/Mike Brown put together for Poirier is always impressive. With McGregor he decided to chop down his lead leg, which would take away McGregor’s power. it worked. But can he game plan for Oliveira’s ground game? Poirier has fought mostly strikers. He fought a wrestler in Khabib and he got mauled, but everyone gets mauled by Khabib. I think Oliveira is able to get Poirier down and control him. I think Poirier will win the stand up battle but the clinch is all Charlie Olives.
Charles Oliveira
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- f you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $223,898 (+223798)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $23,536 (+23436)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $951 (+851)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $486 (+386)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
