UFC 258 Betting Guide
The UFC returns with its second PPV of 2021 as Welterweight Champion Kamaru Usman takes on Gilbert Burns. Its a $70 PPV and maybe the best advice I can give you is that this card is NOT worth the $70. So get some friends together and split it.
Here are some specifics. The early prelims kick off on ESPN+ at 7pm. With the prelims kicking off on ESPN at 8pm. and the main card starting at 10pm on PPV via ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are curtousey of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan100 and put just $1 on the Sixers Suns game today and you will win $100 in free bets!
30-17 so far this year ( 10-6 on locks)
(7-5 last fight card. 2-1 on locks)
*WARNING* my trend in 2021 is to hit a nice streak in the middle of the card and drop the last 2-3 fights. Not something I’m proud of but I want to warn you.
Gillian Robertson +130
Philip Rowe +110 (lock)
Andre Ewell +125
Mallory Martin -150
Belal Muhammad -500 (lock)
Rodolfo Vieira -450
MAIN EVENT TIME
Ricky Simon VS Brian Kelleher
This has the chance to be the fight of the night. Simon is a wild man. Kelleher was on a great run in 2020 taking out two high level prospects and aserting that they just arent quite “there” yet. But Ricky Simon isnt a prospect. Hes a guy with 20 pro fights. Both fighters are looking to take the NEXT step into true contendership. But this fight isnt happening at their natural weight class (135) something that was the norm for Kelleher in 2020 in order to stay more active. This will be Simon’s first fight at 145 in over 3 years. Even with all of that in mind, I think Simon is the better fighter. His 2 losses in the UFC have come to a Hall of Famer Uriah Faber, and one of the best fighters at 135 in Rob Font. I like Simon
Ricky Simon -250
Julian Marquez VS Maki Pitolo
Pitolo needs a win. hes facing a 1-4 start to his UFC career, and that could mean a pink slip. The UFC did him no favors matching him up against the bigger Julian Marquez. Both are Contender Series finds in the early portion of their careers, but Marquez has tasted more success in the UFC octagon, and hes in a top level gym in Syndicate MMA. But Marquez hasn’t fought in forever (July 2018) and I wonder if that will have an effect. Pitolo has been more active and that could give him the edge. But Im picking Pitolo because of sheer urgency. He knows he needs a win. Although Julian Marquez is going to come out bumping Miley Cyrus and you should be terrified betting against anyone who gets hype to “The Climb”
Maki Pitolo +145
Kelvin Gastelum VS Ian Heinisch
Ian Heinish is 14-3, which is impressive. No doubt. But every time he gets that step up in competition he comes up short. He lacks that one signature win on his resume. In fact, the first 3 fighters Heinish faced (and beat) in his UFC career are no longer fighting for the organization. He then suffered back to back losses against Derek Brunson and Omari Akhmedov until getting back in the win column against Gerald Meerschaert.
Gastelum is on a 3 fight losing streak, but hes losing to killers. He gave champion Israel Adesanya his toughest fight (along with his teammate Marvin Vetori.) he then lost to Darren Till’s 185 debut in a close fight. And then was submitted by Jack Hermansson. There’s a large gap in the loses these two men have. Gastelum should reasert himself Saturday night. I just dont think Heinisch is on his level.
Kelvin Gastelum -225 (lock)
Alexa Grasso VS Macee Barber
If Macee Barber didn’t shred her knee up in the first round of her fight with Roxanne Modafferi then she would have dismantled her and be 9-0 heading into this fight. There was a reason she was a -850 favorite in that fight. But this is her first fight back after that injury and I feel like the UFC is treating Barber as if she won that fight, because shes getting a massive step up in competition with Alexa Grasso.
I think Alexa Grasso won her fight against Carla Esparza. That would have her entering this fight at 13-2 instead of her 12-3 record. But that loss might’ve been a blessing in disguise because she decided to move up to 125 after that fight and is 1-0 at her new weight class. Not cutting that extra 10 pounds could be huge for Grasso. This one is really tough to call.
Barber is going to want to run through Grasso and remind the world why her nickname is “The Future.” But theres just no way to know how she responds post injury. Thats the big question. IF it goes to a decision than it should be Grasso who gets her hand raised but if its finished than it should be Barber. I wouldn’t bet the fight (who am I kidding, ill bet it but be warned because its super tough to call) but I will go with Barber getting back in the win column.
Macee Barber +100
Kamaru Usman VS Gilbert Burns
Until I see it, Im not going to think anyone can handle Kamaru Usman. Kamaru Usman is like Ben Simmons. He shuts people down. Is defense exciting? No, not really. But its effective. Is Usman’s fighting style exciting? I like it, but Id be foolish to think that he doesnt have his detractors. When he did stand and trade he had one of the best fights in the division when he finished Colby Covington. No one was calling him “Snoozeman” after that fight. But his last fight against Masvidal was a lose lose in a way. Because he wasnt going to stand and trade with Masvidal. Thats stupid. How the Masvidal fight played out was what EVERYONE should have exepcted. Hes out here to win fights, not trade for the sake of trading.
Ok, ill hop off my Kamaru Usman defense soapbox. The smaller cage should help Burns who is going to want to touch Usman’s chin. And Usman has a chin. But these two know each other very well. They’re former teammates, training down with Henri Hooft in Florida. Once the fight was originally scheduled Usman relocated to Colorado for his camp and is now training with one of the best in the business Trevor Whitman. So I think Usman has the advantage in terms of training camps because he’s trained with Hooft his entire career and is now entering his second fight with Whitman in his corner.
You also cant forget about the fact that Burns is in a new weight division. He moved up to welterweight from 155 in 2019 for a short notice fight and he just kept winning. But hes smaller than Usman. I expect Usman to do to Burns what he did to Masvidal. It isnt going to be on the highlight reels, but I expect Usman to retain his title. BUT! If youre just looking for value, Gilbert Burn shouldnt be a +210 underdog. Should be more like +170. So theres good value in Burn! Burns if it ends inside distance. Usman if it goes to a decision.
Kamaru Usman -275 (lock)
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $35,894 (+35794)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $2,656 (+2556)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $1,351 (+1251)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $496 (+396)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
