UFC Vegas 22 Betting Guide
The UFC returns for another week of fights in the friendly confines of the UFC Apex! This card will be headlined by Kevin Holland VS Derek Brunson. Lets pray these picks are better than last weeks., and the week before that. Ive been on a bit of a skid these past two cards. So keep that in mind because you may be wise to fade my picks. Minor set back for a major comeback though!
Here are some specifics. The prelims kick off at 7:30pm on ESPN2 and ESPN+. Then the main card kick off at 10pm on ESPN
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are courtesy of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan600 to get a risk free first time bet up to $600!
60-43-3 so far this year ( 20-14-3 on locks)
(7-4-2 last fight card. 1-2-2 on locks)
PRELIMS
JP Buys (lock) -150
Montel Jackson -700
Trevin Giles +110
Leonardo Santos +165
Macy Chiasson (lock) -225
MAIN EVENT TIME
Tai Tuivasa vs. Harry Hunsucker
I think this is a prime example of the UFC throwing a guy a bone. The guy, in this case, is Tai Tuivasa. Tuivasa was originally scheduled to fight Don’tale Mayes, who is a tough fight. But when Mayes pulled out I think this was the UFC not wanting to cost a guy who traveled from New Zealand and has to quarantine for a while when he returns, a shot at a paycheck. So in comes Harry Hunsucker. The Dana White Contender Series alum didn’t exactly impress in his appearance in front of the boss. Getting finished by Jared Vanderaa in the first round. But the UFC needed a heavy weight on short notice so they give Hunsucker a call. I think this is a walk in the park for Tai and hell be doing a “shoey” by the end of the night
Tai Tuivasa (lock) -400
Keenan Song vs. Max Griffin
I really like Max Griffin in this one. Hes used to going to the score cards and Song has shown a propensity to tire out. Griffin’s striking is conducive to the smaller cage that the APEX provides. I think Song waits to long to figure Griffin out and by the time he does were in the 3rd round. Griffin by unanimous decision.
Max Griffin -200
Adrian Yanez vs. Gustavo Lopez
This one is an absolute toss up because both guys like to make quick work of their opponents. Im honestly staying away from this one and just going to enjoy it. But Lopez has good value. This is one of those situations where Im going to stick with the “betting guide” part of the title. If anything, bet the fact that it wont go the distance. Especially in a smaller cage.
Gustavo Lopez (not available for some reason)
Cheyanne Buys vs. Montserrat Ruiz
Not only do I think Ruiz fights at the better gym (Kings MMA) I think shes fought way tougher opponents and more octagon time. Ruiz is coming in from Invicta, and its not like Buys is coming in from the backyard bum fights, but Invicta is better than LFA. I think Buys’ husband gets the win. I dont think she does.
Montserrat Ruiz +260
Gregor Gillespie vs. Brad Ridell
I love this fight so much. Im a huge Gregor Gillespie fan. He hasnt fought in over a year and a half since suffering a devastating head kick KO to Kevin Lee. But make no mistake, Gregor Gillespie IS. A. PROBLEM. He’ll be facing Brad Ridell who fights out of one of the best MMA gyms in the world (City Kick Boxing) and has impressed in his 3 fights in the UFC octagon. But Ridell has never faced a guy like Gillespie. Gillespie rag dolls (most) of his opponents. His smothering attacks on the mat make you tired just watching from home. I dont think itll be easy, but once Gillespie gets Ridell on the ground (and I believe IT WILL happen) he will keep him there. Gillespie by unanimous decision.
Gregor Gillespie -250
Derek Brunson vs. Kevin Holland
The man who was once dubbed “Derek BUMson” by now middleweight champion Israel Adesanya is no bum. But what hes become is a middleweight gatekeeper. Fighting those that the promotion sees as a true contender. And he enters this fight on a 3 fight winning streak among those previously described. His latest victory was a really impressive win against uber prospect Edmen Shahbazyan. He entered as a +300 favorite and was barely featured in the promotion for the fight leading up to it. But he tired Shahbazyan out and finished him. But Kevin Holland is different.
He dominated his Dana White Contender Series fight, but didnt earn a contract because he spent the fight talking to the guy he was beating up. That gives you an idea of the type of fighter he is. I loved watching him without fans because you could hear what he was saying to his opponent. But while he was active in 2020, you cant ignore the level of competition he fought. Brunson is the first TRUE tough test. You might point to a washed up Jacare. But Holland has fought hard hitters like Brunson before (see the Joaquin Buckley fight) and hes done well. I like Holland in this one in a hard fought test that puts him in true contendership.
Kevin Holland -175
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $22,737 (+22637)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $1,531 (+1431)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $1,485 (+1385)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $472 (+372) But UFC fighters have a had a key all year long to my “locks” because they havent been that good…
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
