UFC Vegas 19 Betting Guide
The UFC returns to the UFC Apex with UFC Vegas 19. A card headlined by Curtis Blaydes and Derrick Lewis. Originally scheduled to be feature 15 fights, its down to 14 after local product Pat Sabatini made weight, his opponent however didnt get the memo and came in 11.5 pounds overweight. which would be considered missing weight for the NEXT weight class. That fight was scrapped.
Here are some specifics. The prelims kick off at 5pm. With the main card starting at 8pm. Everything can be seen on ESPN+
I will give you my predictions in the order the fights are to take place. All odds are curtousey of Bet MGM. The King of Sports Books! For new users head on over there and use the promocode PatEgan600 for a risk free bet up to $600. Its literally a no lose situation!
34-23 so far this year ( 13-7 on locks)
(4-6 last fight card. 3-1 on locks)
Sergey Spivak -250 (lock)
Aiemann Zahabi +150
Chas Skelly +195
Shana Dobson +140
Nate Landwehr -135 (lock)
John Castañeda -125
Drakkar Klose -185
Jared Gordon +115
MAIN EVENT TIME
Andrei Arlovski VS Tom Aspinall
Another fight where Arlovski has to fight an impressive prospect to see how legit said prospect is. This stretch of heavyweight gatekeeper started when Arlovski fought Jairzinho Rozenstruik and lost. He then fought former PFL winner Philipe Lins to one incredibly boring fight. He won. Arlovski followed that up by stifling Tanner Boser in November in another forgettable fight. It was a fight that looked like Boser was stunned he was in an octagon with a legend. I dont see that happening to Aspinall.
Aspinall enters this fight on a six fight win streak, all first round finishes. The question then is can Arlovski handle the initial onslaught of Aspinall and stymie his offense and making this a point fight. Frustrating the 27 year old. IF it goes past the first round, then things could get interesting. No one has been able to test Aspinall’s cardio because they’ve either been unconscious or being saved by the ref.
I like Aspinall to push his win streak to 7 and establish himself as a legit problem in the heavy weight division.
Tom Aspinall -275
Nassourdine Imavov VS Phil Hawes
In his last fight I picked against Phil Hawes. It was an error in judgement
PHIL HAWES. 18 SECONDS. #UFC254https://t.co/foK6DrLQr3
— Spinnin Backfist (@SpinninBackfist) October 24, 2020
Im not going to do that again. Nope.
Phil Hawes -125
Aleksei Oleinik VS Chris Daukaus
Philly stand up! Our boy is going into battle! He put the UFC on notice with a short notice debut where he was the underdog. He made some bettors pay for that
Chris Daukaus (-115) with the first KO of UFC 252 😳
— br_betting (@br_betting) August 15, 2020
(via @ufc)pic.twitter.com/Pp74LK0P0U
His second fight was pretty much the same. His boxing is crisp and FAST. Knowing this guy is a Philadelphia police officer makes me feel safer living in the city. But he has 13 fights in his career. (10-3 record). He is fighting Aleksei Oleinik who is as veteran as veteran gets (59-14-1 record). Were talking cage expierience that has to be earned, and cant be taught. Weve got a true prospect VS vet fight here with 74 fights going up against 13. and Oleinik is still fighting at a high level. In his last fight he lost to the guy headlining this card, Derrick Lewis. Before that he Maurice Greene and Fabraicio Werdum. His losses are to the premier fighters in the division. I have to agree with Daukaus when he said “The fact im favored in this fight is a little disrespectful.”
Im picking Daukaus to win. But this is a betting guide. IF Oleinik is going to win I think it comes via submission. Theres a good reason why his nickname is the “Boa Constrictor.” He can find a submission from just about anywhere. Daukaus has to be careful going to the ground with him if he drops him. Its all fun and games until Oleinik grabs a limb.
So once again. Im picking Daukaus to win. But if youre looking to hedge, then hedge with Oleinik getting the win by submission.
Chris Daukaus -200
Charles Rosa VS Darrick Minner
Very “meh” fight. But its on the card! So we break it down! The 8 fights that Charles Rose has had in the UFC octogan have been fun to watch. No matter if he won them, or lost them. And his losses are coming to some of the premier 145 pounders (Bryce Mitchell, Shane Burgos, Yair Rodrgiuez) so hes not losing to me and you.
Minner is a vet as well, with over 35 pro fights. But I havent seen anything from him in his short UFC stint thats been impressive. Hes coming in with a chip on his shoulder after Rosa had some critical things to say about him. And sometimes that chip can help. But I think Rosa is just on a different level than Minner.
Rosa -190 (lock)
Ketlen Vieira VS Yana Kunitskaya
This one is pretty tough. Im high on Kunitskaya. Ever since her days in Invicta ive liked her style. Hell, anyone who willingly steps in to fight Chris Cyborg has my respect. On the other side Vieira is high level. Only losing to Irene Aldana. And I would likely pick Vieira because even though I am high on Kunitskaya I would give Vieira the edge
BUT
Kunitskaya is training with her fiance. “Big deal so wh-” Her fiance is Thiago Santos. I cant get over that. Training with THAT guy has to give you some sort of edge. It certainly cant hurt. Thats a minor detail to this fight. The biggest though is the fact that Vieira missed weight. You wonder how much a bad weight cut could effect her in this fight.
For those reasons I will go with Kunitskaya.
Yana Kunitskaya +225
Derrick Lewis VS Curtis Blaydes
Betting aside. For pure entertainment purposes you should want Derrick Lewis to win. Because anytime this guy wins, and gets on a mic, its pure comedy.
"My balls was hot!" 🔥🤣@Thebeast_ufc's answer, @joerogan's response - one of the great moments inside the Octagon 😂
— UFC on TNT Sports (@ufcontnt) February 15, 2021
Oh it's good to have a Derrick Lewis fight week again...#UFCVegas19 | Saturday | BT Sport 1 HD pic.twitter.com/OPIwoTmXfA
There are many MANY more examples I could give you on why you should want Derrick Lewis to win this fight. But man does he have his hands full. Curtis Blaydes is a man on a mission, and that mission is gold. Blaydes flat out RAG DOLLS his opponents. Taking them down, wearing them down, tiring them out and eventually finishing them. The last time Lewis fought a wrestler the calibur of Blaydes, it was in 2018 when Daniel Cormier submitted him. That was over two and a half years ago. The question is, how much has his take down defense improved?
Blaydes has lost to one man in his UFC career; Francis N’Gannou. Thats it. Every other striker, hes handled. Conventional wisdom tells you to go with Blaydes. But I am not going to, and I will likely regret this come 11:45 tonight. But I am going Lewis to catch Blaydes. The biggest reason why is the small cage. Itll be harder for Blaydes to take Lewis down in a smaller space. Its a bold strategy cotton and I hope it pays off for me!
Derrick Lewis +340
Since BET MGM is the king of parlay’s here is how the parlay odds look!
- If you take every one of my picks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you’d win $2,066,627 (+2066527)
- If you just parlay the prelims, using all my picks and wagering $100 you would walk away with $25,716 (+25616)
- Parlay the main card, taking all my picks and wagering $100 you would cash in $8,036 (+7936)
- And if you just want to take my locks and parlay them on BetMGM, wagering $100 you would win $371 (+271)
Odds subject to change. Good luck!
