2020 NBA playoffs: Predictions for Sixers vs. Celtics series
With Ben Simmons sidelined by a left knee injury, do the Sixers have a chance to beat the Celtics in their first-round playoff series?
NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Paul Hudrick, Danny Pommells and Noah Levick make their predictions, and NBC Sports Philadelphia’s Serena Winters shares some big-picture thoughts on the series, which begins Monday night at 6:30 p.m. on NBCSP.
Hudrick
We all saw a motivated Joel Embiid walk into TD Garden in December and hand the Celtics 38 points. On that night, Embiid was spectacular, also posting 13 rebounds and six assists with just two turnovers. He gave the Sixers an elusive road win in a tough environment against a tough opponent.
Can he do that for four games and lead the Sixers to an upset over Boston? That’s a question that I don’t know the answer to. For that reason, I like the Celtics. Make no mistake, the games will be close and even without Simmons, I think the Sixers have a chance.
It’s just all going to come down to Embiid. He has the potential to be one of the most dominant two-way forces in the NBA when he’s healthy and focused. Health will be a question as he nurses a sore left ankle and sore right shooting hand. Hopefully focus will not be.
Embiid will have to cover up a lot of warts as the Sixers just have more questions than answers right now. Will Shake Milton be ready for the moment? Will the Al Horford-Embiid pairing come together? Can Josh Richardson produce offensively? Can youngsters Matisse Thybulle and Furkan Korkmaz provide strong bench minutes? Will Alec Burks keep up his torrid play?
Because of that uncertainty, Celtics in six.
Pommells
They say money will only make you more of what you already are. If you were a jerk before, you’re just a jerk with money. The same can be said for the NBA playoffs. The pressure cooker that is the NBA’s postseason exacerbates your deficiencies. We’ve seen the Sixers exposed this way in the second season, specifically by the Celtics. Brad Stevens daring Simmons to shoot by packing the paint. The C’s attacking weak perimeter defenders off the dribble like Marco Belinelli and JJ Redick in 2018.
This current Sixers team was supposed to be built for such an occasion. Injuries have morphed the Sixers into a shell of themselves with Simmons, their best defender, rehabbing his knee in Philadelphia instead of being the head of the team’s defensive juggernaut in Orlando.
The Sixers have the best player in the series in Embiid, but “The Process” did recently have injuries to his left ankle and right hand. Plus, Embiid successfully passing out of double teams is still a work in progress.
Think about this: The Sixers’ bench rotation is so fluid that Burks went on a tear in the Bubble and is now most likely the team’s sixth man. It’s a blessing and a curse. Good to great teams aren’t making these types of adjustments or dealing with catastrophic injuries on the doorstep of the postseason. The Sixers are what they look like, a sixth seed.
The truth hurts and is often inconvenient. The Celtics have won four straight playoff series over the Sixers and by the end of the month, it’ll be five. Celtics in six.
Levick
Jayson Tatum made his first All-Star appearance and Jaylen Brown had a good case for doing the same. Kemba Walker has fit well in Boston and his left knee issue is seemingly not much of a concern. Gordon Hayward averaged 17.5 points, 6.7 rebounds and 4.1 assists this season.
The Sixers have an excellent rim protector in Embiid, and Richardson and Thybulle have been effective against Walker. They are not, however, equipped to stop the Celtics as a team.
“The Ben demise and the Glenn Robinson lack of availability is punishing,” Brett Brown said Sunday.
There are a few categories where I think the Sixers could do well in the series, including rebounding and limiting Boston’s three-point opportunities. Still, the extent to which they’ll depend on Embiid is not encouraging, and they’ll need plenty from Richardson, Tobias Harris and Horford, too. Boston should put pressure on Horford to defend in the pick-and-roll, and the 34-year-old will inevitably have to venture out to the perimeter to guard smaller, quicker players. Thybulle, Milton and Korkmaz are all 23 years old and expected to assume key playoff roles for the first time.
Since the Sixers are an odd, unpredictable team and the peak version of Embiid is fantastic, an upset is possible. The odds don’t look very high, though. Celtics in six.
Winters
Is it too dramatic to say this is all going to come down to how Embiid performs in this series?
I’m not in a position to make predictions, but I can tell you what I see as the biggest factor to sway this series in the Sixers’ direction, and it’s whether the big fella puts together the best games of his career. (No pressure, right?) The Celtics don’t have anyone that can match up up 1-on-1 with Embiid. They might try for the first few possessions with Daniel Theis or Enes Kanter, but after that, let the double teams commence. It’s on Embiid to make the right decisions, and on his teammates to be properly spaced around him, penetrate and knock down shots. If the Sixers can do that, and Embiid gets to the line, I’m convinced the Sixers will win games.
But I’m not worried about the offense. The bigger question is how the Sixers will match the Celtics’ speed and versatility on the defensive end. And did I mention the Celtics are healthy now? And they are the only team in the top four in both offensive rating and defensive rating? And Tatum no longer has Simmons hounding him on the defensive end? Let me put it this way: The Sixers can’t afford as many mistakes as the Celtics can to come on top.
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