Analyzing Phillies Chase Rate Issue During Classic NLDS Battle
A heated National League Division Series is keeping fans on the edge of their seats, but skeptics of the Philadelphia Phillies can’t forget that brutal chase rate that made parts of the opening weekend to Red October seem like déjà vu.
The Phillies struck out 19 times in the first two NLDS games against New York Mets pitchers. They showed a troubling tendency to chase pitches well below the strike zone.
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The flaw has become a hot topic of conversation not only on the airwaves at 97.5 The Fanatic but also inside the clubhouse at Citizens Bank Park.
Nick Castellanos provided the heroics in a walk-off Game 2 victory after the first five innings looked downright ugly for the Phillies offensively. They exploded for seven runs in the final four innings.
Did the pendulum swing back in Philadelphia’s favor that quickly? Is poor plate discipline a non-issue after the wild rally?
Phillies Burned by Chase Rate
The Arizona Diamondbacks threw 45 strikeouts in four NLCS victories to stun the Phillies in 2023. The unlikely NL champs threw only 11 strikeouts in their three losses.
Off-speed pitches below the zone looked like the Achilles heel for a lineup full of accomplished Philadelphia sluggers.
The Phillies succeeded offensively in 2024 finishing fifth in runs scored, fifth in batting average, tied for fourth in OPS, and seventh in home runs. They had their fair share of punchouts, finishing 16th in the majors.
However, their chase rate ranked 25th despite an organizational emphasis on improvement beginning all the way back in spring training. Phillies hitters swung at 30.3% of pitches outside the automated strike zone, according to Baseball Savant.
While three other American League playoff teams also finished in the bottom seven in chase rate, all of them ranked solidly below the Phillies in most major statistical offensive categories.
The Phillies slumped offensively in the weeks following the MLB All-Star Break. They hit another offensive skid with a concerning lack of contact in the final weeks of the season.
Ruben Amaro Jr. discussed a weakness of the 2010 and 2011 Phillies teams that lost playoff series to teams with less talented rosters.
He believes the added opportunity for opponents to scout the Phillies heavily during their long stretch as World Series contenders helped write a more legitimate book on ways to attack their best hitters in a significantly parallel circumstance to 2024.
Nervous Phillies fans prepared for the MLB Postseason with plate discipline concerns weighing on their minds.
NLDS Games 1 & 2
The problem reared its ugly head early in the NLDS. The Phillies couldn’t follow up a leadoff home run by Kyle Schwarber in Game 1 with enough productive at-bats. They failed to capitalize on a fatigued Mets pitching staff in the middle of an exhausting stretch.
Bryce Harper put together a solid day at the plate overall. His fifth inning strikeout, however, exemplified his team’s problem too perfectly. He whiffed on three pitches substantially outside the strike zone.
Castellanos fell into bad tendencies chasing pitches below the zone with two strikeouts. The Phillies finished with eight strikeouts, and their chase rate played right into New York’s game plan.
“They’re going to bury stuff and try to get us to chase as much as possible. Obviously, they’ve got really good pitching, but we’ve got really good hitters in here. We’ve just got to bear down and understand that we can do it.” –Bryce Harper
The pitch selection issue heightened the first time through the order in Game 2. Harper and Bryson Stott struck out looking at borderline strikes while J.T. Realmuto and Edmundo Sosa fanned on pitches below the zone before a few long walks back to the dugout.
Castellanos provided the most obvious example of chasing you’ll see from the Phillies in his at-bat in the fourth inning. He may or may not have used some explicit language after the crowd gave him the Bronx cheer for laying off one pitch.
Game 2 Thriller at Citizens Bank Park
The Phillies turned the momentum in Game 2 just as quickly as the Mets stole Game 1. Trea Turner singled off Luis Severino in the sixth to set up Harper for a dramatic home run.
Castellanos followed with a game-tying dinger that sent Citizens Bank Park wild.
“I thought our at-bats were similar to last night (in Game 1) up until that point (the Harper home run), and then I thought our at-bats got a lot better. We started getting guys back into the zone, and attacking, and using the field.” -Rob Thomson
The Phillies also tagged Edwin Diaz for three in the eighth and finished off the Mets with another run off Tylor Megill in the bottom of the ninth.
Will Chase Rate Plague Phillies?
Did the Phillies eliminate their chase rate issue by leaving pitches below the zone, drawing deep counts, and earning walks? It was more about capitalizing on mistakes by the Mets.
Trea Turner talked about Luis Severino leaving pitches over the plate in the sixth inning.
“I feel like the first good pitch I’ve gotten to hit all series was that third at-bat, the slider with two strikes.” -Trea Turner
Harper and Castellanos drove pitches in the middle of the zone for the back-to-back home runs.
Bryson Stott showed better plate discipline before a clutch RBI triple in the eighth. The Mets pitched around Harper for two walks in the late innings.
“There’s been a lot of talk – not only publicly but in our clubhouse – about getting back in the strike zone (and) controlling the strike zone on both sides of the ball. If you do that, you’re going to win games. I think they’re making a conscious effort for sure.” -Rob Thomson
Pitch selection and chase rate don’t tell the whole story of why the Phillies rallied for seven runs in a thrilling comeback.
Kyle Schwarber’s pregame explanation provided a little more context to an issue that’s come up repeatedly throughout the season.
“Nobody’s going and talking in the room saying, ‘Don’t chase. Don’t chase. Don’t chase.’ We’re talking about where we want to be in the zone.” -Kyle Schwarber
The simple matter of swinging at strikes and looking at balls goes a long way in baseball, but it doesn’t encompass exactly what the Phillies need to do to sustain offensive success during the MLB Postseason.
Castellanos, Phillies poster boy (fairly or unfairly) for the discussion, finished in the bottom 5% of MLB hitters in chase rate in 2024. He is an aggressive swinger who chased two pitches outside the strike zone in the final at-bat before driving home the winning run.
An expensive, talented lineup will continue to hear internal and external scrutiny of their pitch selection. Opposing pitchers will continue to attack with breaking pitches below the zone.
The Phillies will conversely continue to pursue the right level of aggressive swings on pitches in the right locations, power swings to take advantage of opposing pitchers’ mistakes, and proper discipline to avoid contact droughts that could sink their World Series dreams.
“Pressure and momentum helps kind of create those (mistakes by the opposing pitchers). We’ve kind of got to create our own momentum and our own pressure to reward ourselves with those pitches.” -Trea Turner
