Phillies MLB Offseason Targets: Anthony Santander
A disappointing loss in the National League Division Series turned up the heat. Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies feel the pressure to alter their roster during a window of World Series contention.
Juan Soto has already signed with the division rival New York Mets. Big-name pitchers Garrett Crochet and Max Fried also came off the board during the MLB Winter Meetings.
Related Content: Phillies MLB Offseason Targets: Alex Bregman
Anthony Santander slugged 44 home runs in a career season with the Baltimore Orioles in 2024. The Phillies have a hole in the outfield. Is it as simple as adding the free agent slugger to an already deep lineup?
Anthony Santander
Santander watched his impending paycheck get bigger and bigger with each ball that sailed over the outfield wall at Camden Yards last season.
The 30-year-old switch hitter set career highs in home runs, walks, RBI, and slugging percentage. He earned his only career MLB All-Star Game selection and his only Silver Slugger Award.
He spoiled the series for the herds of Phillies fans who traveled to the Baltimore Inner Harbor for a weekend set in June. “Tony Taters” hit three home runs and drove in six runs against Phillies pitching to help the Orioles take two of three in a quasi road series in their home park.
Santander played right field almost exclusively in 2024, where he graded poorly in defensive metrics. He’s stolen only 10 career bases in eight seasons, and his sprint speed ranked in the 18th percentile of major leaguers last season.
While Santander boasted the glamorous long ball stat line in 2024, he finished the season with an OPS over .800 for just the second time in his career. The other came in the shortened 2020 season when he played only 37 games. His batting average also dropped 22 points from his 2023 total.
The Orioles signed Tyler O’Neill as an apparent replacement in the outfield. Any team that signs Santander, however, will pay draft pick compensation after he declined Baltimore’s qualifying offer in November.
FanGraphs projects he’ll sign a four-year contract worth $80 million.
Why Dave Dombrowski, Phillies Should Pass
The Phillies will look for a player who brings a different offensive approach after their bats have gone cold to finish three consecutive Red Octobers. Their lineup construction has become a primary focus.
“It just doesn’t seem to work. I remember being around some Phillies people maybe August of this past year, early September. I said ‘What do you think of your chances (to win the World Series)?’ They said, ‘We don’t think we have good chances because we’re way too easy to pitch to.’ So I think that’s where they have to shake (up) that lineup so the opposing pitchers don’t settle in. They’ve been dominated two straight postseasons now.” –Bob Nightengale on 97.5 The Fanatic
Anthony Santander will not provide the alternative approach the Phillies are looking for. He’s built a reputation as a free swinger who’s not afraid to wander outside the zone.
He finished the 16th percentile of major league hitters last season chasing 34.5% of pitches outside the unofficial radar strike zone. The Phillies as a team finished 25th with a 30.3% chase rate, a number that Santander has exceeded in each of his eight MLB seasons.
Dombrowski and Rob Thomson shifted the focus away from simple chase rate statistics after the Phillies went down with a whimper in the NLDS. They will also encourage their hitters to use the opposite field more often, especially on outside pitches.
Santander also contradicts that strategy. His pull rate of 42.9% in 2024 ranked well over the 37.2% league average.
Players who post career numbers entering free agency benefit from human nature. MLB executives under pressure to succeed sometimes spend impulsively instead of properly weighing the chances of natural regression back toward career averages.
The Toronto Blue Jays and the Boston Red Sox will open the checkbooks after missing out on Soto. They could drive a bidding war for a player who is unlikely to replicate his 2024 numbers and provides an unideal fit for the lineup at Citizens Bank Park.
Dave Dombrowski hasn’t taken four MLB franchises to the World Series by making moves for the sake of making moves. He recognizes the urgency of a major market in a window of championship contention, but handing out another lucrative contract to Anthony Santander wouldn’t be a wise allocation of resources.
The Phillies will explore Teoscar Hernandez and Alex Bregman as potentially better fits. They will also look to the trade market to keep up with the arms race of the MLB offseason.
All advanced numbers according of StatCast (unless otherwise noted)
