Could Juan Soto Actually Sign With The Phillies?

Juan Soto is the prize gem of the free agent class in the MLB this off-season. If it was not for his teammate Aaron Judge, there would be a very strong case that Juan Soto should be the AL MVP. He is 2nd in OPS, 3rd in HRs, 3rd in SLG, and 2nd in OBP.

Those stats are nothing new. He has had an OBP over .400 in every single season of his career. He has hit at least 30 HRs in 3 of his 7 seasons and was on a 30+ HR pace in 2 more. He had a SLG over .500 in 6 of those seasons. The point is that Juan Soto is very good at baseball. So good in fact, if he were on the Phillies, he would be the best player on the team, which is saying a lot considering Bryce Harper is on the Phillies.

But is the an actual possibility? Is there a real chance Juan Soto could be wearing red Pinstripes next year? They have been tied to him via trade in the past, and going back two years some experts were saying to watch out for the Phillies when he hits Free Agency. Now that he is a free agent, could they land him?

It may seem like a pipe dream, but people who are in the know, keep telling us to not rule it out. It may not be likely, but the Phillies are in the mix to land Soto.

Bob Nightengale has reported The Phillies will "strongly pursue" Juan Soto, noting he is a Scott Boras client like Bryce Harper. Dave Dombrowski and John Middleton both happen to have very good relationships with Scott Boras.

Jim Bowden also thinks they have a chance.

"...don’t be surprised if they make a stealth run at Juan Soto. Dave Dombrowski’s calling card has always been to pursue the biggest stars on the market...the Phillies have plenty of future payroll space to shock the world and sign him."

We did not see that play out last off-season, but we did see it happen the year before with Trea Turner, and then he made a few smaller splashes the year before that with names like Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos.

Bowden expanded on his thoughts on MLB Network Radio, noting how much money the Phillies have coming off the books in the next couple of years and how that makes it easier to fit Juan Soto in.

"JT Realmuto and Kyle Schwarber's $38 million comes off the books after '25. Castellanos' $20 million comes off the books in '26... That's $58 million bucks coming off...

"So if I do a 15-year deal... I can show my owner how I'm not increasing payroll. I'm just gonna back load the first couple years a little bit, I'm gonna show him that pathway, on that balance sheet, I'm gonna show him how it absolutely fits."

Jayson Stark said on 97.5 The Fanatic to not rule it out. Pointing out they have an owner who wants to win in John Middleton, and he will spend whatever it takes to do so.

“The owner wants to win and the owner is willing to pay whatever it takes if the player he’s purchasing is the missing piece. I think they would view Juan Soto as a franchise-changing figure. I don’t think that is going to happen. But if the money is there, and the winning part and the connection with the hitting coach is there, why would it be zero?”

That said, while Jon Heyman put them in the mix, he also noted they are long shots.

But there is smoke there, and where there is smoke, there could be fire. I am not saying go out and get a custom made Juan Soto jersey before he signs here, because it is still a long shot. But you can allow yourself to dream a little bit. They are in the mix.

Juan Soto has heavily implied he will go where the most money is. There are a lot of teams with a lot of money pursuing him, notably the Yankees and the Mets. But the Phillies have the money too. As Bowden pointed out, they have a lot of mone coming off the books soon. Stark pointed out they have an owner willing to spend that money.

For a player like Juan Soto, it is worth it. You saw how he transformed that Yankees team. You saw with the Dodgers how adding a big name can take a perennial choker to being a champion. The Phillies should, and likely will, do everything in their power to land Juan Soto.

But for more realistic options, you can read the article attached below.

The Phillies just collapsed epically. Their bats went ice cold, and they let the hated Mets kick them out in 4 games. After 3 straight years of the bats blowing up in an important place, people want to shake things up. And the most obvious place to upgrade is in the outfield.

Much of the team is locked up. 1B and SS are not changing anytime soon. You could feasibly move Trea Turner somewhere else, like 2nd Base. But if that happened, it would just mean they are moving Stott to SS.

They have 1 more year of JT Realmuto and 2 more years of Castellanos. CF could change, Dombrowksi certainly did not make any commitments to Johan Rojas, but they might have that spot earmarked for Justin Crawford.

Left Field is the place to look at. Dombrowski might have said that the team likes Brandon Marsh, but that does not mean they will keep him there. He is a platoon player, who has not even been consistent in his half of the platoon.

Looking at the landscape of the Free Agent Market, Left Field is also the easiest place to upgrade. Jayson Stark joined The Best Show Ever this week and talked about some of the places the Phillies could go.

"You've got Anthony Santander, who's a switch hitter with power and is a good outfielder. You're watching Teoscar Hernandez with the Dodgers. He's strikeout-prone, but he's a he's a winning player. Tyler O'Neill is definitely a name to watch. He's hurt a lot, but right-handed hitter with big thump. I know they kick the tires on him at the deadline. Jurickson Profar is to me the profile of the kind of hitter they desperately need." 

Stark also mentioned to not completely rule Juan Soto out. It is not likely, but also not impossible. We talked about that in the below article. But for this list, we are going to keep it to names they have a decent chance at signing.

Related: Juan Soto Unlikely To Come To Phillies, But Dont Rule It Out

So how well do those 4 guys Jayson Stark mentioned fit with this team? Let's take a look at each of them.

Santander has 105 Hrs over the last 3 seasons. He hit 44 last season, with over 100 RBIs. The Phillies need some right-handed pop, they have needed it since they lost Rhys Hoskins. He can certainly provide that. His AVG is a bit low, but he is not a big swing-and-miss guy despite that. His whiff rate of 20% is better than 76% of the league. His K rate of 19.4% is better than 66% of the league. He might be a power guy with a low average, but he does put the ball in play.  

To this point, he has played in Right Field. But you could move him over to Left if needed. He might look too similar to the guys already on this team, but the actual numbers suggest a more careful approach than some of the current Phillies.

Teoscar Hernandez would fit right in with the current lineup. He is a big power guy, 116 Hrs over the past 4 seasons, with a lot of strikeouts, just under 400 over the past 2 seasons. So if you want something different, he is not your guy. Signing him would be doubling down on the current approach of this lineup, which we saw cost them vs the Mets. He is just as much of a swing-and-miss/chase guy as some of the hitters currently on this team.

But as we are seeing this year, he is a big-time playoff performer. He has helped carry the Dodgers while some of their big names put up smaller numbers than you would expect. His OPS was over 1.000 in the Padres series. But he is 0-14 in the NLCS. So you can see the hot and cold he provides. Maybe something the Phillies want to avoid given they already have other guys like that. That said, he will provide you with moments like this.

Tyler O'Neill will remind people of Kyle Schwarber, just from the right side. He hits HRs, he walks, and he strikes out. He hit 31 HRs this year in 113 games. That is some big thump from the right side. He is also a better fielder than Schwarber. O'Neill won two gold gloves in Left field earlier in his career. His overall numbers don't paint the picture of an elite left Fielder though. He has a great arm, but average range. But even if he doesn't win another Gold Glove, he would not be the liability Kyle Schwarber used to be out there. At worst, you are getting average. The Phillies won both their World Series with far worse fielders in Left.

There are some heavy splits there though. His OPS drops from 1.180 against Lefties, to .693 vs Righties. But he did hit 15 HRs vs righties. He is not unplayable vs righties the way Marsh is vs Lefties, but there is a large dropoff that takes him from being a great player on 1 side, to an average player on the other.

Like Jayson Stark said, he is a name they have looked into in the past. They tried to get him at the deadline, but nothing came to be. Now that he is a free agent, he might be the guy Dombrowski looks at. Will it fix the issues they had with not putting the ball in play? No. But he would basically provide what Rhys Hoskins used to provide for this team.

Jurickson Profar might be the guy who excites Phillies fans the most. He has okay pop, but more importantly, he makes contact. His Whiff Rate, K Rate, Chase Rate, and Walk Rate are all in the top 10% of the league. He would bring a different element to this Phillies lineup.

Jayson Stark talked about how the Phillies need a different kind of hitter.

"They need somebody in that lineup who will make contact in a big spot and understand that's enough. Too many big swings in that lineup where only contact was needed. You watch the Mets play and you see how they take what the defense gives them in big moments in the postseason. Who's the Philly who does that? I'm sure that they will be shopping for that kind of guy."

Profar is that different kind of hitter. Stark described exactly what Profar did for the Padres. He might also provide a shakeup to the culture of the team, that desperately needs a change. For me, this is the guy. The other 3 would be good options, but Profar feels like the exact kind of player they need to fix the problems that cost them in each of the past 3 seasons.