Evaluating 3 Phillies Rumored in MLB Trade Market: Nick Castellanos
The trade rumors started swirling almost immediately after the MLB offseason began. Bob Nightengale of USA Today listed Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh as potential candidates from the Philadelphia Phillies who could be on the move this winter.
“Simply, scouts say, they’re (the Phillies are) just too easy to pitch to come crunchtime with their big swingers and contact-challenged hitters. If someone needs a slugger like Nick Castellanos, or outfield help in Brandon Marsh, or third baseman Alec Bohm, the Phillies are listening.” -Bob Nightengale
What kind of trade value do the three players have? How should other MLB teams view them? How do Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies evaluate them internally?
- Evaluating 3 Phillies Rumored in MLB Trade Market: Brandon Marsh
- Evaluating 3 Phillies Rumored in MLB Trade Market: Alec Bohm
Nick Castellanos
After the heartbreaking NLCS loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks in 2023, Nick Castellanos became the poster boy for the lineup’s hot/cold tendencies. He had followed up a record-breaking first two rounds of the MLB Playoffs with a cold streak that contributed to the devastating exit.
The organization’s emphasis on chase rate contributed to his involvement in trade rumors leading into the 2024 season. Castellanos also struggled out of the gates in April and May, putting his value to the Phillies in serious question.
His sizable contract and a lack of production across the outfield at Citizens Bank Park left the Phillies very little flexibility. Both sides had to ride it out, and Castellanos improved the situation drastically.
The 12-year veteran outfielder made it his routine during the regular season to show up early to the ballpark and take extra swings in batting practice. Rob Thomson consistently praised his right fielder’s commitment to working with Kevin Long and the hitting staff.
He proved that chase rate doesn’t singular paint a comprehensive picture. While he finished merely in the fifth percentile of qualified MLB hitters in 2024, his aggressive approach actually helped him regain his overall offensive value.
His .817 OPS after June 1 superseded his previous .610 mark. The surge earned him the cleanup spot entering the NLDS against the New York Mets.
He hit .412 (7-17) in the playoffs, including his fifth walk-off hit in 2024.
Nick Castellanos has also quietly stolen 24 bases in 29 tries in three seasons with the Phillies despite less than excellent speed. He shows a concerted baserunning effort that not all major leaguers replicate.
Value on the MLB Trade Market
A flawed hitter who will turn 33 during spring training with two years and $40 million due isn’t going to bring back a significant trade return.
MLB teams will question Castellanos’ glove. His ability in right field exceeds the negative evaluation from Baseball Savant that ranked him with a -14 fielding run value in the bottom percentile of all big league fielders last season.
Castellanos can effectively cover a reasonable but not outstanding amount of ground. He is not a liability in right as the numbers might suggest, but he also doesn’t add much value with outfield assists that sometimes convince teams to live with imperfect defense.
- 2024 Slash Line: .254 BA/ .311 OBP / .431 SLG
- Career Average 2013-2023: .276 BA/ .324 OBP/ .475 SLG
Potential trade suitors will also see his 0.8 WAR (according to Baseball Reference) for the 2024 season. Weston Wilson and Rafael Marchan by comparison finished with 0.7 each while Edmundo Sosa significantly outdid Castellanos with 2.8 WAR.
Will other teams look past the unfavorable numbers? Maybe to some extent, but the considerable value that Castellanos brings to the lineup despite his flaws outweighs the damage that statistics can do to his trade value.
Any deal the Phillies make would likely come in the bigger picture of a high-priced acquisition that requires taking salary off the books elsewhere.
If the Phillies pursue an aggressive hitter like Teoscar Hernandez in free agency, it could enact an outfield shuffle that removes Castellanos from the lineup.
Without a key addition elsewhere, Dave Dombrowski is more likely to keep Nick Castellanos in Philadelphia.
