Phillies

Phillies

Phillies

The 2024 season began with one goal. The Philadelphia Phillies needed to avenge a disappointing NLCS loss and capitalize on their window of opportunity to win a World Series with a top-tier MLB roster.

The Phillies finished with the second best record in the majors. They’ll host the National League Division Series at Citizens Bank Park with the pressure heightened after two heartbreaking postseason exits in two consecutive years.

Related Content: Why the Phillies Won’t Win the World Series

Phillies Entering 2024 MLB Playoffs

When historic franchises like the New York Yankees and the Los Angeles Dodgers finish toward the top of the MLB standings, the baseball world usually gushes over the storylines.

However, it’s the Philadelphia Phillies getting credit in most conversations as the most complete team entering the MLB Playoffs.

The Phillies trail the two behemoth headline teams in World Series odds according to most popular sportsbooks. However, fans should feel optimistic entering Red October.


  • Zack Wheeler: Best MLB Pitcher?

    Ask yourself the age-old question. Who would you choose to start a Game 7 of the World Series with your pick of any MLB starting pitcher? Zack Wheeler showed the world why the Phillies will pay him $42 million in average salary on his contract extension.

    The 34-year-old finished in the top tier of most major statistical pitching categories in 2024. He finished in consideration for the NL Cy Young, although Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves is the favorite.

    Colin Newby on X (formerly Twitter): "Holding opponents under a .200 batting average for an entire season might be the most impressive of Zack Wheeler's stats in 2024 pic.twitter.com/ShLx54KLVi / X"

    Holding opponents under a .200 batting average for an entire season might be the most impressive of Zack Wheeler's stats in 2024 pic.twitter.com/ShLx54KLVi

    What separates Wheeler from the nasty stuff of a young lefty like Tarik Skubal or a young righty like Paul Skenes? Postseason experience.

    Wheeler has made 10 starts in 11 postseason games with the Phillies. He’s thrown 63 ⅓ innings with a 2.42 ERA.

    Jayson Stark as a guest on The Best Show Ever pointed out his extraordinary splits in Game 1 starts.

    The ace’s 1.04 ERA ranks first among all 49 starting pitchers in the MLB divisional era who have started Game 1 of a playoff series at least four times. He’s kept opponents to a .126 average over 26 innings in his four starts.

    Rob Thomson has the luxury of handing him the ball for Game 1 of the NLDS against an opponent’s fourth starter.

  • Starting Pitching 1-2-3

    Zack Wheeler dominated through the first three playoff rounds in 2022. He ran out of gas, however, and the starting staff thinned out in the World Series.

    The Phillies had a similar problem in 2009 when their starting staff behind Cliff Lee couldn’t bring them to the ultimate goal.

    The Phillies have three starting pitchers poised for a successful postseason run in 2024. Aaron Nola has survived the ups and downs of 10 big league seasons. Some fans are quick to point to his flaws, but an outstanding stat line in potential clinching scenarios provides evidence to the contrary.

    Nola allowed 30 home runs in 33 starts in 2024, but he still provides the calm demeanor of an experienced playoff pitcher that a manager is comfortable turning to. He’s posted a 3.70 ERA in nine postseason starts. Aaron Nola of the Philadelphia Phillies, who are in pursuit of a World Series Cristopher Sanchez broke out as a full-time MLB starter in 2024 with a 3.32 ERA in 31 starts. Key members of the organization have consistently praised his stunning path of development.

    The 27-year-old lefty has thrown significantly better in home starts this season. Rob Thomson could elect to use him in NLDS Game 2 at Citizens Bank Park, pushing the collected veteran Nola to Game 3 on the road.

    The MLB Playoff schedule will force teams to use four starting pitchers on regular rest. Ranger Suarez struggled with a 5.74 ERA in his final seven starts after returning from the IL in late August.

    The Phillies, however, probably won’t ask much of the Venezuelan lefty. He’s pitched relatively short outings in his postseason career, and they’ll ask Wheeler, Nola, and Sanchez for more length.

    Ranger Suarez pitched 3 ⅔ shutout innings in Game 1 of the NLDS last October. Thomson deployed his bullpen smoothly using six relievers to slam the door for a 3-0 victory. Expect a similar formula in Suarez’ starts in Red October.

  • Loaded Bullpen Arms

    The Phillies will use five high-leverage arms in relief during the playoffs. Matt Stahm, Jeff Hoffman, and Orion Kerkering have all reached the peak of their performance in their respective MLB careers.

    Jose Alvarado struggled through stretches of 2024, but his 2.89 ERA in 10 appearances in September after a short leave from the team has restored confidence in him as the best option to face an opponent’s toughest left-handed hitters.

    Carlos Estevez hasn’t owned the closer’s role with dominance since the Phillies traded for him in July. However, the Phillies trust his strong velocity and competitive mentality enough to keep him in a ninth inning role.

    Any Phillies fans skeptical of the relievers should look at the bullpens that helped the Phillies on deep playoff runs the past two Octobers.

    Colin Newby on X (formerly Twitter): "𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭-𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐫, 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭: 𝑊ℎ𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑃ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑂𝑅 𝑊𝑜𝑛'𝑡 𝑊𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠https://t.co/Blnr3Xf7Pq pic.twitter.com/ORgSJcUJyl / X"

    𝐅𝐢𝐫𝐬𝐭-𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐂𝐚𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐫, 𝐋𝐨𝐧𝐠-𝐓𝐢𝐦𝐞 𝐄𝐱𝐩𝐞𝐫𝐭: 𝑊ℎ𝑦 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑃ℎ𝑖𝑙𝑙𝑖𝑒𝑠 𝑊𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝑂𝑅 𝑊𝑜𝑛'𝑡 𝑊𝑖𝑛 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑊𝑜𝑟𝑙𝑑 𝑆𝑒𝑟𝑖𝑒𝑠https://t.co/Blnr3Xf7Pq pic.twitter.com/ORgSJcUJyl

    Connor Brogdon, Brad Hand, and Nick Nelson all made World Series appearances in 2022. The Phillies slipped Zach Eflin into the closer’s role late in the 2022 regular season and stuck with it by default at points during the playoffs.

    Strahm, Hoffman, and Kerkering are pitching in significantly better rhythm than they were in 2023.

    The Phillies have a deeper corps of high-leverage arms than most of their opponents, especially the World Series favorite Yankees, who still haven’t defined bullpen roles confidently.

  • Offensive Stars

    Phillies fans have criticized the offense with regularity in 2024. The wounds of the NLCS slump and the undying passion of Philadelphia fandom, however, have clouded the perception.

    Sluggers like Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani power the Dodgers while Aaron Judge and Juan Soto form a terrifying 1-2 punch in the Bronx.

    However, the Phillies still have a top-tier MLB offense with plenty of firepower capable of carrying them to 11 playoff wins. They finished the 2024 regular season fifth in runs scored, fifth in batting average, tied for fourth in OPS, and seventh in home runs.

    Fans concerned about their NLCS slump should also consider that the Phillies averaged 5.17 runs per game through the first two rounds of last year’s postseason.

     

    Their chase rate ranked 25th in the majors in 2024. They also finished 16th in strikeouts, and a contact slump in September fueled some panic.

    However, the boom or bust potential exists with every MLB offense. Is it possible that the Phillies hit another devastating short-term skid the ruins their World Series hopes? Yes. It might even be more likely than certain opponents, but it doesn’t mean that Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, and Nick Castellanos don’t provide enough firepower to compete with capable opposing pitchers.

    Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto also provide above average offensive production for their positions.

    The Phillies boast lineup depth with seven quality hitters. The left field and center field positions didn’t shake out the way Dave Dombrowski might’ve planned, hoewever.

    Brandon Marsh and Johan Rojas will most likely start the majority of playoff games. Thomson counted on them less for offense late in the season and asked them to improve with situational hitting and sacrifice bunts.

  • Improved Bench

    Thomson couldn’t praise his minor league staff enough this season. Seemingly every bench player took advantage of a call-up to make solid short-term contributions.

    The players who stuck at the MLB level form a better bench than the Phillies used in 2022 or 2023.

    Thomson openly admitted when the Arizona Diamondbacks visited Citizens Bank Park in June that he regrets not pinch hitting for Johan Rojas in the early innings of Game 7 in the NLCS last fall.

    Expect a more aggressive approach with capable bench bats like Kody Clemens and Weston Wilson available.

    The third-year skipper might also trust Edmundo Sosa to rotate with Bryson Stott against left-handed pitching.

    Jake Cave made the final out of the playoffs last season. The 2024 roster will feature at least three bench bats bringing more of an offensive threat.

    Kody Clemens #2 of the Philadelphia Phillies reacts with teammates after hitting a walk-off single to defeat the Tampa Bay Rays at Citizens Bank Park on September 09, 2024 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.

  • Commitment to Messaging

    The Phillies entered 2024 expecting a World Series. They set a clear goal to start the season faster than they did in 2022 or 2023.

    Their early lead in the NL East played a major part in their comfortable spot entering the postseason in relatively good health with the advantage of a bye week to align their pitching.

    Dombrowski spearheaded the offseason messaging and entered the season with trust in his group to recreate the momentum of 2022 and 2023 without major additions.

    When he saw lackadaisical play in July and August, he didn’t sit on his hands.

    “Dave talked to Rob Thomson about this. Rob talked to the big guys in his clubhouse about this. You’ve seen how much more of a sense of purpose they’ve played with… Dave said in no uncertain terms, ‘You’re not going to win in October if you play like this, if you play with the approach this team played with for a couple of months.’ If he told me that, can you even imagine what he told people inside that team?” -Jayson Stark on The Best Show Ever

    The Phillies have regained focus and continuity entering one of the most impactful months in franchise history.

    Dave Dombrowski, Philadelphia Phillies

  • Red October at Citizens Bank Park

    The forced (but harmless) trend of professional sports organizations pandering to fans often includes compliments about the intensity of home field advantage.

    Comments coming from opponents mean a little bit more.

    Colin Newby on X (formerly Twitter): "The Red October crowd at Citizens Bank Park has built a reputation as the best home field advantage in baseball pic.twitter.com/1KB2JolHCl / X"

    The Red October crowd at Citizens Bank Park has built a reputation as the best home field advantage in baseball pic.twitter.com/1KB2JolHCl

    The Red October crowd creates a unique advantage that’s usually more relevant in football. The rally towels will wave in full force when the Phillies take the field looking for their third World Series in franchise history.

    “I never was an advocate of home field advantage being important in baseball, but I think it’s a little bit different when you come here. It’s a little intimidating, and if you don’t get things going well for you right away, the wheels can spin off, and before you know it, the game’s over.” -Larry Bowa on 97.5 The Fanatic

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