A Ranger Suarez Trade Makes Too Much Sense For The Phillies To Ignore
World Series expectations ended with a whimper for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2024. Disappointment will spur significant change, especially with notoriously active executive Dave Dombrowski calling the shots.
Trade rumors have spread like wildfire. MLB insiders have named Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, and Brandon Marsh most commonly. However, another trade candidate might actually make more sense if Dombrowski and the Phillies are looking for an offseason blockbuster.
Ranger Suarez is no longer an ideal fit in the starting rotation, and too many conversations about the Phillies have ignored indicators about the Venezuelan lefty’s future in Philadelphia.
Ranger Suarez in 2024
A combination of injuries, durability issues, and poor performance pushed Suarez’s numbers off a cliff in the second half of 2024.
He built a legitimate case in the NL Cy Young race at the season’s midway point. His dominant breaking pitches helped him strike out 99 hitters in 98 ⅓ innings and hold opponents under a .200 batting average.
Suarez had reached his peak as a key piece to a loaded Phillies rotation that helped them to the top of the league standings. The only way to go was down.
| Ranger Suarez | Starts | Innings Pitched | ERA | WHIP | Strikeouts/9 | Opponent BA |
| 1st Half of 2024 | 16 | 98 ⅓ | 1.83 | 0.92 | 9.1 | .199 |
| 2nd Half of 2024 | 11 | 52 ⅓ | 6.54 | 1.74 | 7.9 | .315 |
| MLB Average in 2024 | — | — | 4.07 | 1.27 | 8.6 | .243 |
The drastic dip forces questions about his durability. A pace just below 200 innings looked like a heavy workload after the first half of 2024. The Phillies noticed his 155 ⅓ career high and planned accordingly.
However, Suarez didn’t’ even surpass his highest career total. He limped through 31 ⅓ innings in his final seven starts and finished with 150 ⅔ last season.
His unconventional career arc includes midseason adjustments from reliever to starter and an irregular workload in 2022 because of offseason visa issues.
A 29-year-old pitcher missed his biggest opportunity to prove himself as a reliable option in an MLB starting rotation for a 162-game regular season in 2024.
Underdiscussed Trade Indicators
After Suarez had just stormed out of the gates in 2024, the Phillies signed Cristopher Sanchez to a four-year contract worth $22.5 million on June 22.
The investment doesn’t necessarily reflect poorly on Suarez. John Middleton recognizes the need to spend big on multiple starting pitchers to compete for a World Series.
However, a team with lucrative long-term money allocated to Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola at the top of the rotation had three starting pitchers locked up comfortably.
Meanwhile, one of the most dominant starters in the majors during the early months of the season was inching toward his final year under club control in 2025. He hadn’t yet disproved durability questions guaranteed to play a major factor in potential contract talks.
Suarez quickly lost his momentum and landed on the IL just over a month later. Rob Thomson consistently spoke optimistically about the injury timeline, but the cool, calm lefty missed his manager’s unofficial return targets multiple times during the month of August.
The Phillies insisted the extra recovery time would help Suarez stay fresh for the playoffs. However, he failed to surpass his career high 5 ⅓ innings pitched in his only NLDS start. He’s now pitched fewer than five innings in four of his eight career playoff starts, which makes his stellar 1.43 postseason ERA seem less indicative of a Red October ace.
Dombrowski also pursued Garrett Crochet, the crown jewel of pitchers on the market, just around the time Ranger Suarez started to slump ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline.
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An aggressive push for a starting pitcher who reportedly wanted a long-term financial commitment before the postseason doesn’t directly point to the organization’s lack of trust in Ranger Suarez, but it also isn’t the most encouraging indicator.
The Phillies also refused to include Andrew Painter in any potential deal with Chicago White Sox. They intended to acquire Crochet to team up with Wheeler, Nola, and Sanchez while retaining a top pitching prospect they expect to debut in 2025.
Count up the pitchers. There’s only five spots in an MLB starting rotation.
Was this all due to the back injury that kept Suarez off the mound from July 22 until August 24?
Dombrowski could’ve passed off the late-season slump as an injury that’ll work itself out before next season. However, the future Hall of Fame executive carefully avoided sharing information about the front office’s explanation for the downfall after the season ended and instead mentioned the player’s mindset.
“We like Ranger a lot, understandably so, and we like the Ranger the first half of the season better than the second half. There was a lot that was involved in that (the second half slump) from his own perspective, but he’s a good pitcher. We’re all very open minded to having Ranger in the organization for a long time.” -Dave Dombrowski
The Odd Man Out?
The Phillies benefit from one of the biggest budgets of any MLB franchise. Their ownership doesn’t force the front office to move players due for bigger paydays.
However, Dave Dombrowski didn’t bring four franchises to the World Series by waiting for internal issues to solve themselves. He recognizes that subtracting pieces from the current roster might be necessary to maneuver most effectively and achieve bigger picture goals of improving the roster.
Acquiring an up-and-coming starting pitcher like Garrett Crochet looks like a plausible scenario, especially after Philadelphia’s legitimate push ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline.
“This winter, I think that they’re going to go bonkers. I think the Phillies are going to be one of the most aggressive teams. As you know, the White Sox’ priority is to have a position player as the centerpiece of any deal they do for Crochet. The Phillies don’t necessarily match up in a great way there, but I think that they will be the team willing to give the extra 10% to finish a deal.” –Buster Olney
Something has to change. Despite how unlikely a trade might’ve sounded in June 2024, the reliance on Ranger Suarez as a key cog of the starting rotation might be part of that change.
