If It Helps The Phillies Win This Year, They Should Part With Prospects
For the longest time, The Phillies had very few prospects to look forward to. The dark ages from about 2010 to 2020, saw very few high level players come through the Phillies system. There were hits here and there, like Aaron Nola and Rhys Hoskins, but those were few and far between.
For the most part, we were treated to busts like Dom Brown and Spencer Howard. Even guys they traded away didn’t amount to much. In fact, in the last 10 years, Aaron Nola and Chase Utley are the only Phillies prospects who made an All-Star game.
But things might be changing. For the 1st time in awhile, the Phillies actually have a booming farm system. They have 5 prospects ranked in the top 100, including 2 in the top 50. Andrew Painter and Aidan Miller are the prized pieces, but Justin Crawford, Starlyn Caba, and Mick Abel are also highly ranked.
The problem is those guys are not going to help them win a World Series this year, or even next year. These next two years may be their best chance to win something. So is it worth sacrificing the farm, to get players who win now?
I think so, and here is why.
The Phillies Can Win This Year
Everyone wants a dynasty. Building a team that is good for the next decade would be great. It is not a realistic goal though. Most teams win once. As great as the Phillies were from 2007-2011, they only won once. Go back to the 80s, and the Sixers had one of the best teams ever assembled, they only won once. As did the Phillies from that era
This Phillies team needs to win once before we think anything more than that. This is a year they can do that, it is maybe the best chance they will have.
Harper and Turner are here long-term. The decline isn’t coming anytime soon, but they are both 30, and it will eventually come. Harper might not be the same guy by the time someone like Aidan Miller is ready to be a star. The same goes with Turner. By then they will also have had to either pay, or move on from rising stars like Alec Bohm and Ranger Suarez.
You could argue all of that is more reason to want a fresh crop of young guys to come up 3 years from now. But it is also an argument for maximizing their chance to win right now.
Justin Crawford won’t help them in October this year. Luis Robert will. Kyle Tucker will.
We all assumed the Eagles would be competitive for forever when they won in 2017. Turns out that was that teams last real chance. This might be the best chance the Phillies get this year. They need to take advantage of it.
Prospects Don’t Always Pan Out
Sixto Sanchez was a can’t miss prospect. There were people who couldn’t believe they traded him for JT Realmuto. Sixto has yet to contribute consistently at this level. Kyle Drabek was a can’t miss prospect. What did he ever do? Dom Brown was can’t miss. He lasted 6 seasons. Spencer Howard was can’t miss. Where is he now?
Prospects are nice. Obviously there are lots of prospects who did pan out in the MLB. But even with top 50 prospects, it can be a crap shoot.
I will take proven players every time. You don’t trade these prospects for other lottery tickets. It needs to be already established stars. But if you can get a impact bat in the outfield, you do it.
Related: Phillies MLB Trade Deadline Candidates: Kyle Tucker
That Doesn’t Mean Trade Prospects For The Sake Of It
I am not saying to trade a prospect just for the sake of it. It obviously has to be the right trade. I still doubt Kyle Tucker is moved, but if he is, you give up the prospects to get him. Luis Robert is a harder sell, just because of his injury history. But the talent level is enough to make me consider it.
This team is special, but not perfect. There is a glaring hole in terms of outfield bats. They can change that. they can get another impact bat in the outfield. If the price of that is weakening their farm system, it is worth the cost.
Aidan Miller is the one guy that gives me pause. he is a few years a way, and his path is currently blocked, but it sounds like he can be special. It would have to be a very big splash to make me move Miller. Otherwise, you trade the prospect to win now.