Phillies MLB Trade Deadline Candidates: Kyle Tucker
The Philadelphia Phillies solidified their spot in the top tier of MLB teams with a hot start in 2024. They entered the season with World Series expectations despite a relatively slow offseason.
Dave Dombrowski showed confidence in the current makeup of the group by keeping his core pieces together with no major additions to the starting lineup.
97.5 The Fanatic: Ongoing Series of Phillies MLB Trade Deadline Candidates
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Ryan Pressly
- Tommy Pham
- Randy Arozarena
- Ryan Helsley
- Michael Kopech
- Taylor Ward
What does the relatively slow strategy and the high demands from Philadelphia fans mean for the Phillies ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline?
This is a big market team operating on a hefty budget trying to take advantage of a window for World Series contention. Expect Dombrowski to make some deals.
Kyle Tucker
Jeff Passan of ESPN reported the Phillies’ interest in Kyle Tucker, Luis Robert Jr., and Randy Arozarena.
Tucker is the most attractive of the three outfielders. He’ll also be the most difficult for a contending team to land ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline.
The Houston Astros have built a powerhouse with high draft picks that developed into big league stars. Their core has led them to seven consecutive ALCS appearances and World Series titles in 2017 and 2022.
Tucker joined the loaded group of sluggers with a breakout effort in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season. He’s followed it up with impressive home run totals of 30, 30, and 29 in the past three seasons, respectively.
Phillies fans remember him most for his part in ending their miracle ride to the World Series in 2022. He slugged two home runs in the Fall Classic and squeezed a foul ball off the bat of Nick Castellanos for the final out of the Game 6 clincher.
The 27-year-old has hit a new level in a contract season in 2024. He ranked third in the majors in home runs, fourth in SLG%, and fourth in OPS (through June 9).
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After Tucker finished tied for 18th among all major leaguers in WAR in 2023, the stellar power numbers resulted in a surge up the Baseball Reference leaderboard into the top tier of MLB superstars at seventh.
A stacked Astros roster limped out of the gates in 2024 despite Tucker’s hot start. They face uncertainty with big names like Alex Bregman, Framber Valdez, Justin Verlander, and Ryan Pressly.
Tucker will only earn $12 million in 2024, a salary that doesn’t accommodate his production, and he’s set to enter unrestricted free agency after the season.
Will the Astros be able to retain a superstar due for a lucrative pay raise?
Phillies Looking For Outfielders?
While the Phillies stormed out of the gates, Nick Castellanos struggled to begin the 2024 season. He ranked in the bottom tier of qualified MLB hitters in most categories in late May.
Johan Rojas began the season in the lineup because of his glove. His underwhelming offense won’t pick up the slack if Castellanos can’t maintain a better rhythm at the plate.
Brandon Marsh had provided serviceable offense in somewhat of a platoon role through the first two months of the season. He suffered a hamstring injury on June 2 that made the outfield offense a more immediate concern.
Will the Phillies wait for Castellanos to bust out of his slump? Would they consider moving Marsh back to center field when he’s healthy with the hope of better offense from a replacement in left?
Tucker has played in right field exclusively for the past three seasons. He’s steadily improved his defensive game according to the FanGraphs defensive runs saved metric.
However, he played 41 games in left field in 2020 and only seven in right. He’s produced a net positive performance in left over his career according to the metrics.
Return Package
The expectation for a World Series calls for action. Dombrowski has prospects at his disposal if the Astros decide to sell. Any contending baseball executive should consider moving talented prospects for short-term success, but they must select the right deals.
Houston might ask for Andrew Painter in a potential deal. Would the Phillies let go of their prized young pitcher for Kyle Tucker this season?
Painter underwent Tommy John surgery in July 2023. The Phillies don’t expect him to pitch again until the 2025 season.
Scott Lauber spoke on 97.5 The Fanatic about how the Phillies view their top prospects.
“I think they’d have to get totally bowled over to trade Andrew Painter. I think they’d have to get totally bowled over to trade Aidan Miller. Justin Crawford would be difficult for them to move. I think those are kind of the big three.” –Scott Lauber
He believes Mick Abel is a likelier trade chip outside the untouchable category. However, the Astros will ask for much more in return for a 27-year-old star in a career season.
Deal Or No Deal?
The Phillies have successfully sold high on top pitching prospects like Kyle Drabek (for Roy Halladay) and Sixto Sanchez (for J.T. Realmuto) in the past.
However, Dave Dombrowski will not strike a deal without a plan to retain Kyle Tucker this offseason. He’ll need to ensure that the Phillies can afford another lucrative long-term contract for a superstar under the representation of Scott Boras.
The Los Angeles Dodgers add yet another variable into the equation of a potential trade sending Kyle Tucker to the Phillies. They will also chase the top outfield bat with an expensive big market budget at their disposal.
If you’re counting at home, that’s five things that need to fall into place for Dombrowski to execute the hypothetical trade.
- The Astros must be willing to sell their best hitter this season because of their underwhelming start.
- The Phillies must be willing to trade top prospects they ideally don’t want to part with.
- The Phillies must have a plan to re-sign Tucker at a number he sees fit on a team that he sees fit.
- Tucker must move back to left field after executing a successful transition to right the past three seasons.
- Dombrowski must outbid the Dodgers in search of an outfield bat.
The Phillies won’t leave any stones unturned on the trade market, and it never hurts to dream. However, a trade sending Kyle Tucker to the Phillies at the MLB Trade Deadline seems unlikely.