“The Professor” John Clayton Once Taught Me How To Evaluate An NFL Schedule

One of the greatest joys in my time hosting radio shows with ESPN was getting to know the legendary personalities personally. One of the legends was “The Professor” John Clayton. He was an amazing writer and brought his unique insights to ESPN TV and Radio programming.

Over the years John would join me on various programs for some of my favorite and memorable NFL conversations. Like me, he was a bit of a “schedule geek”. He had a unique way of evaluating a schedule as to determine its true difficulty. I’ve used this analysis system ever since. I know that John wouldn’t have an issue with me sharing his evaluation system with you.

Begin the process of evaluation by determining the opponents that have a starting quarterback who has already led a team to a playoff berth in the past.

Dak Prescott - Cowboys (2)

Daniel Jones - Giants (2)

Jordan Love - Packers

Kirk Cousins - Falcons

Matthew Stafford - Rams

Derek Carr - Saints

Baker Mayfield - Buccaneers

Joe Burrow - Bengals

Lamar Jackson - Ravens

Trevor Lawrence - Jaguars

Deshaun Watson - Browns

Russell Wilson - Steelers

That’s 14 different games where the Eagles will be facing a quarterback who has previously led their team into the playoffs. That is a whopping 82% of their schedule.

That puts the Eagles into the top quarter quadrant on the John Clayton difficulty scale. While there are many reasons to be bullish on their chances, this is an indicator that there will be very few easy games on this year's slate.

Only one of the Eagles' eight road games will be against a team that isn’t starting a quarterback that has led a team to the playoffs. The Washington Commanders are the only team without a “danger” quarterback. 88% of the road games are in the top quadrant of danger

Only two of the Eagles' eight home games will be against a team with a “danger” quarterback. The two teams that don’t have one are the Washington Commanders and Carolina Panthers. 75% of the home games are in the top quadrant of danger

The Green Bay Packers are the lone “neutral site” game opponent and Jordan Love led the Packers to the playoffs in 2023. 100% of the neutral site games are in the top quadrant of danger

The Eagles haven’t played a schedule like this one in recent memory. To have all of the measurements appear in the top quadrant of danger means they have the most difficult schedule available. In previous seasons this will mean that the Eagles would fall below their expectations.

I can almost hear his voice. “John, I think your Eagles may be in a little trouble.” Using the John Clayton evaluation I’m now cautious as to how confident I should be regarding the Eagles NFC Championship hopes. They are going to need some very good fortune and health if they hope to reach their full potential. Enjoy the 2024 schedule release!

When new Eagles Defensive Coordinator Vic Fangio was asked at his introductory press conference what his system needs to work, he was very blunt. Fangio said he needs good players.

It is hard to argue with the guy. You can have the best scheme in the world, but if you don't have good players, it won't work. We saw that last year.

The 2023 Eagles roster, on defense, was terrible. They lacked talent at every position except the D-Line. Even there the talent they did have fell off a cliff in the second half of the season. The Coordinators, Sean Desai and Matt Patricia, took a lot of the blame for it. They deserved a lot of it, but in fairness to them, they didn't exactly have a ton to work with.

The 2022 Eagles defense was overflowing with talent. But 5 starters left in free agency. Including both Safeties, both Linebackers and their best Defensive Tackle.

Howie Roseman did a good job replacing Javon Hargrave by drafting Jalen Carter. He really dropped the ball at Safety and Linebacker though. He went for cheap and inexperienced players for the most part, and it blew up in his face.

Even when he tried to right the ship by trading for Kevin Byard, it didn't work. The same goes for bringing in Shaq Leonard. It was clear those two former All-Pros just were not the players they used to be.

Vic Fangio will help stabilize things a bit. He is a proven DC who has had success with multiple teams. But like he said, he can only do so much. If the talent isn't there, the defense will still be bad.

Did Howie Roseman do enough so far to give Fangio the good players he needs? Or will it be another season where they struggle due to a lack of talent?

This position is very hard to judge. They have the talent, but there are so many question marks. They traded away their only sure thing in Haason Reddick. It could work out, but none of the guys they have left have proven they can consistently get after the QB like Reddick does.

Bryce Huff is coming off a career year. But it was his only productive season, and he was a part-time player. Just because someone gets more snaps, does not mean their production goes up. Sometimes it goes the other way. The more you play, the more you get exposed. You also get more worn out. Is Huff a full-time player, or did he benefit from limited playing time and going under the radar on a talented Defensive Line with the Jets?

We saw more snaps hurt Josh Sweat last season. In 2022 he had 356 pass rush snaps and 13 sacks. He had 564 pass-rush snaps in 2023, but his sacks plummeted to only 7. His production waned over the course of the season as he got more and more tired. Can we bank on him to bounce back?

Then there is Nolan Smith who hasn't proven anything at any level. His upside is huge, but even in College he was never productive. Everything about him is a projection. The same goes for rookie Jalyx Hunt. It would be crazy to count on anything out of Hunt during his rookie season. But is it any saner to bank on Smith breaking out when he has yet to show us anything on the field?

Brandon Graham is 36. Can we count on him to be productive? This is the hardest position on the defense to judge this year. There are far too many unknowns, and they are banking on unproven players with massive upside. I can't confidently say they are going to be great though. No one can.

At DT, they are in a somewhat similar spot. They are relying on a lot of younger, inexperienced players. Fletcher Cox was their best, and the only consistent, DT last season. Well, he is gone. Behind him, there is a ton of talent, but also a lot of question marks.

I still think Jalen Carter is an amazing player, but we can't deny he vanished in the 2nd half. Maybe that was just a rookie wall. But because of it, and because it was only 1 season, we still can sit here and confidently say he is a Star player. He still has a lot to prove.

The same goes for Jordan Davis. Davis played like a star in the first half. He will never be an elite pass rusher like can be. But he was the main reason the Eagles were the best run defense over the first 11 games. Up through the Bills game, Davis was arguably the best-run stuffer in the league. Then he vanished. Conditioning remains a major issue for him. Some of that was on Desai overusing both of them and getting away from having a rotation. But both of those guys also just need to be better. Davis needs to be in shape for the season.

Behind them, I actually like guys like Milton Williams and Marlon Tuipulotu. Are they stars? No. But they are solid rotational guys. The plan should be to use them more, to keep Carter and Davis fresh. After them there is nothing of note right now. Ojomo was a 6th round pick last year and never saw the field. Hall is a UDFA with upside, but I don't know if there will be a place for him. They still might need more depth here. But the top 4 guys are set in stone.

I am more confident in this group than I am in the edge group. There are still question marks though. Not having the veteran leadership of Cox in that room anymore is also concerning. maybe new D-Line Coach Clint Hurtt can get more out of the young guys though. 

This is by far the position with the most question marks. I like the upside of a lot of these players. But no one has ever done it at the NFL level, short of one good year by Devin White.

I like Nakobe Dean, but he didn't play his rookie year and was injured all of last year. We have not seen him do it in the NFL. He had knocks on him coming out of College due to his small size. Until we see him do it in the NFL, I can't just assume he will.

Devin White was a great talent coming out of College. Its why he went 5th overall. But there is a reason he was available for cheap. He has yet to be an impact player at this level.

The other guys, I have no clue. I like Jeremiah Trotter Jr, but like Dean, there is a reason he fell in the draft. He is small for a linebacker. I can't bank on a day 3 LB stepping up year 1. Nor can I bank on a UDFA in his 2nd season like VanSumeren.

Zack Baun Fangio seemed high on. So we will see. So maybe he can be something, but I am not going into the season confident in this squad. Are they better than last year's LB room? Yes. That is a low bar though.

Obviously, there are a lot of names here right now. Many of these guys will be cut. but Slay, Mitchell, DeJean, Ringo, Ricks, Maddox, and maybe Rodgers, are the guys to know.

Their corners were terrible last year. But they went out and added two high-end players in Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean. You will also see guys like Ringo and Ricks look more comfortable, and then there is the wildcard of Isaiah Rodgers.

I can't say I am 100% comfortable with them. Again, you are relying on a lot of youth and inexperience here. But Mitchell seems like a special player. So does DeJean. Those two, at the very least, will be upgrades from last year. Slay is getting older, but I still feel comfortable with him as a starter.

Cornerback shouldn't be an issue again this year.

CJ Gardner Johnson brings much-needed stability to the Safety room. He is a proven starter and a playmaker. He alone makes the room better.

I am concerned about what comes after him though. Reed Blankenship was not good last year. He has his skillset, but there were a lot of problems. In fairness, a lot of players struggled last year. Even proven veteran guys. So it is tough to judge him off one season. I still can't say I trust him as one of the starters though.

Sydney Brown is promising, but he also still has a lot to prove. Plus he will miss the start of the season with injury. And after those 3 I have no clue what you have.

The one Wild Card is Cooper DeJean. we don't fully know what role he will play. But he can play Safety. If that is where you use him, suddenly I feel much better with him as the 2nd starter. and Blankenship/Brown as the backups.

It is a better room than last year. You at least have one guy who is a proven top end Safety. Whether it is good enough, we don't know.

This defensive roster is definitely better than last year. They at least added talent and upside. That said, they are relying on a lot of youth and inexperience. That is not a bad thing persay. If it works, then you have a young defense on the rise.

They still have to prove it though. I feel good about the Cornerback room and the DT room stepping up. I can see real elite talent like Jalen Carter and Quinyon Mitchell in those groups. Linebacker? Safety? Those are up in the air though. And the Edge rusher room has a lot to prove after the Eagles traded Haason Reddick.

Still, it is a huge improvement from last year. At the very least, they got more athletic on defense. Will they reach the heights they did in 2022? I don't know. But I have a hard time seeing them being as bad as they were last year.