Why Phillies Fans Should Feel Optimistic About the Aaron Nola Contract
Aaron Nola and the Philadelphia Phillies have agreed on a seven-year, $172 million contract. You’ll unquestionably hear mixed reactions to the decision from Dave Dombrowski and the front office to retain the veteran right-hander.
The Phillies chose the known commodity, and they’re now unlikely to pursue another big name starter like Corbin Burnes or Yoshinobu Yamamoto. The decision won’t spark the excitement fans felt 13 years ago after the Roy Halladay trade. It won’t bring the same national attention as the Bryce Harper signing.
However, there is a lot to like about the decision to bring Nola back.
Aaron Nola Contract: Was it worth it?
Phillies fans have justifiably felt frustration with Nola. He was underwhelming down the stretch in 2019, and he pitched well below expectations in 2021 and 2023 with season ERAs well north of 4.00. The former seventh-overall pick allowed 32 home runs last season, which tied him for the seventh most in the majors.
It’s not what you want to see from a player who will now rank 18th among MLB starting pitchers in average annual salary (until other pitchers sign this offseason).
However, a closer look indicates Nola’s strengths. He ranks second among MLB pitchers in innings pitched over the past seven seasons behind only Gerrit Cole, per Jayson Stark. During the same period, only Max Scherzer, Gerrit Cole, Jacob deGrom, and Justin Verlander accounted for more WAR, considered the most comprehensive advanced statistic in baseball.
Nola’s trend of down seasons in alternating years is concerning and downright bizarre. However, it doesn’t erase the excellent seasons that earned him Cy Young consideration in 2018, 2020, and 2022.
Despite his shortcomings, the former LSU standout is more accomplished than trade candidate Dylan Cease and more durable than free agent Blake Snell. Yamamoto most likely offers a higher upside, but he comes with his fair share of question marks. The organization conversely knows what kind of pitcher Nola is after nine seasons in Philadelphia.
One of the Few Homegrown Phillies
The major market MLB teams spend extravagantly. John Middleton has given Dombrowski the freedom to spend over the luxury tax with big acquisitions like Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner.
The city has embraced a group of Phillies who have brought the franchise back into World Series contention. However, the team doesn’t have many homegrown players with the same career track record that Nola has established.
John Kincade spoke about a conversation he had with an MLB executive. He identified Nola’s preference to stay with the organization that drafted and developed him.
“With 100% certainty, Aaron Nola let other teams know, ‘I want to be a Phillie first and foremost, and if they come with a great deal, then I accept, and I’m going back.’ Now, the numbers people projected him to get were totally way off. $30 million wasn’t happening anywhere, but he did supposedly turn down more money to go elsewhere.” -John Kincade
Ricky Bottalico pointed to the timing of the contract as another indicator of the positivity that Nola and the organization share. Most of the best available free agents don’t sign before Thanksgiving. Nola and Dombrowski clearly didn’t want the negotiations to reach a breaking point.
Nola spoke to 97.5 The Fanatic in May 2023 about his long journey with the Phillies.
“I come up in 2015. We’re kind of in a rebuilding phase. We’re stretching our way to that point up until last year (2022) and getting to the playoffs for the first time in my career. I really appreciate it a lot more, and I’m blessed to go through it the way I went through it from a rebuilding point to where we’re at now. I really appreciate it a lot more. I’m glad it happened that way…just the way the organization has gone, the rise that it’s been, the people around, not just the players, but the whole organization from top to bottom, just great people…I definitely wouldn’t change it for anything.” -Aaron Nola
Both sides wanted this, and fans should feel similarly optimistic about one of the most accomplished starting pitchers in franchise history.
Aaron Nola is here to stay.
— 97.5 The Fanatic (@975TheFanatic) November 19, 2023
Thoughts on the deal?
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Watch The John Kincade Show on the 97.5 The Fanatic YouTube page on weekday mornings from 6am-10am.
Stay or Go- Which Phillies Players Will Be Back Next Season?
Bryce Harper- Stay
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Bryce was disappointing in the final few games of the playoffs. But he is still one of the best hitters in the league and the primary reason the Phillies are competitive again after that long playoff drought. Even if for some reason you wanted to move on you can’t. He is under contract through 2031 and has a no-trade clause. Harper is in it for the long haul.
JT Realmuto - Stay
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There are real reasons to be concerned about JT moving forward. He took a huge step back this season at the plate. Maybe all the years having catching has caught up to him. If so, it is a major problem because they still have him for two years. Even his catching has taken a dip. We saw him struggle badly to protect the bases in the playoffs.
But regardless of his issues, he will be here next year. They don’t have any better options at catcher, and no one will trade for a regressing catcher owed over $46 million in the next two seasons. Despite his faults, he is still at worst a decent hitter. Just have to hope he plays better next year.
Aaron Nola- Go
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Nola is a good pitcher. He is just not a trustworthy pitcher. There is way too much inconsistency in his game to give him Ace money. And with the state of the Starting Pitcher market in Free Agency, he is going to get Ace money. It’s great he is so reliable to pitch 200 innings, and that he is never hurt. But if you can’t trust the guy to come up big when it matters, how can you pay him like an Ace?
Bryson Stott- Stay
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Stott fell apart a bit in the playoffs. After being one of their best hitters in the regular season, he struggled for most of the postseason. But he is a Gold Glove Caliber Second Baseman, and clearly a good hitter. He should still be seen as one of the main pieces to build a World Series roster around.
Trea Turner- Stay
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I would not blame anyone for having a little bit of buyer’s remorse for Trea Turner after the first season of his 11-year deal. He was awful in the first half, and awful in the NLCS. In the final two months of the season, and in the Wild Card Round/ NLDS, he was great. But he is a big reason why they lost to the Diamondbacks. Still, he is going to be here. We just have to hope he bounces back.
Nick Castellanos- Go
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Dave Dombrowski said something that stuck out to me. He said Castellanos struggled at the end of the year, and that he tends to do that. It was an odd thing to say about a guy on your team. Not untrue, but odd. I get the sense the Phillies are not entirely happy with Castellanos. Jayson Stark came on the station and said he could be a guy traded away. I could easily see them trading him, putting Harper back in RF, and resigning Rhys Hoskins to a one-year deal.
Zack Wheeler- Stay
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This one is obvious. Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in the league since he came to Philly. We saw that in the playoffs. The bigger question is do they give him an extension? It is the last year of his deal. The Phillies have some promising guys down in the minors, but trusting prospects can be a dangerous game. Giving a guy his age another contract is risky, but letting him leave would also be a major risk with no obvious Ace ready to replace him.
Ranger Suarez- Stay
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The Phillies have two more years with Ranger, and hopefully much more after that. Ranger has been one of the best lefties in baseball since he moved into the rotation. Ranger should be part of both the immediate and future plans. We know he is capable of pitching in the playoffs. Is he an Ace? No. But he is a damn good pitcher.
Alec Bohm- Stay
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When he is on, Bohm looks like a guy who could be a star. But the total product has been underwhelming. 2023 was his best season yet, and he did reach 20 HRs, so it’s a move in the right direction. But outside of that final game, he was a major problem in the postseason. His defense on the other hand has improved greatly. It is still not time to question his future, but we need more good Alec Bohm than bad Alec Bohm moving forward. And there is no reason he should not have more power.
Kyle Schwarber- Stay
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Say what you will about his batting average, he gets on base and has been among the elite power hitters in the game since he got here. Schwarber is not the problem with the Phillies. He wasn’t even a problem in the NLCS. It is a must that he remains at DH and out of the field, but other than that I have no concerns about Schwarber moving forward.
Rhys Hoskins- Stay
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For most of the year, it felt like Rhys Hoskins time here was over. Not because he is not a good hitter. It is just because there was no space for him. But if Castellanos gets moved, and Harper moves back to LF, it opens up a spot for Hoskins again. If he is looking for a one-year prove-it deal off the back of his injury, the Phillies would make a ton of sense, and they could certainly have used his bat in the playoffs.
Johan Rojas- Go
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By go, I don’t mean he won’t be in the system. He just won’t be on the MLB roster to start the season. The playoffs exposed some issues in his swing. Dombrowski said in his exit interview that Rojas could start the year in the minors to work on his swing. And if Dave is putting that out there publicly, it feels like something that is going to happen. At some point, he may be back up. But no matter how great his defense is, if he can’t hit, he can’t play.
Brandon Marsh- Stay
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The question is not if Marsh will be here, but what role he will have. Marsh will be on the 26-man roster next season, but will he be an everyday player? If not, and he is still a platoon player, he could eventually be the odd man out in an Outfield that could become very crowded. Justin Crawford could be here by 2025.
I still really like Marsh, and think he deserves a chance to play every day. Statistically, he was one of their best hitters and was the most consistent guy in the playoffs. We won’t learn if he can hit lefties unless they give him a chance to sink or fall. Throw him into the deep end, and let him sink or swim.
Michael Lorenzen- Go
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Lorenzen went from looking like an Ace in his first two starts here to being unusable. There is no reason to bring him back. Doing so would be a desperate move because they couldn’t go out and acquire another top-end pitcher. Unless it is a super cheap long relief option, let Lorenzen go somewhere else.
Taijuan Walker- Stay
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Is Walker great? No. But you need guys who eat innings in the regular season, and Walker can do that. They have him under contract for a few more seasons, and there are times when he looks great. They can’t bank on him being a main guy, but he makes for a decent 4th or 5th starter.
Cristopher Sanchez
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Not only will Sanchez be back, he should be one of the 5 starters. Dombrowski seemed confident he is capable of it. Will he be a top-of-the-rotation guy? No. Should they be planning on featuring him in the playoffs? Maybe not. But if he is your 4th or 5th starter, I feel great about that. Sanchez was perhaps their most consistent pitcher after joining the rotation mid-season.
Craig Kimbrel- Go
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Kimbrel is not the guy he used to be. He pitched great to open the season but faded badly down the stretch, and is a big reason why the Phillies were not in the World Series. They can’t go back to him. Let some other team deal with him next year. Dombrowksi’s priority this offseason is finding more bullpen arms, ones we can actually trust.
Jose Alvarado- Stay
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Jose Alvarado will be one of their top guys again next year. Despite the many injuries, he continued to be a star out of the bullpen last season. He has live stuff, and now that he has more control. He is a perfect candidate to be the go-to guy in tough innings. But they definitely need another great Bullpen arm to go with him.
Jake Cave- Go
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We learned in the playoffs that the Phillies need a good pinch hitter. They hoped that would be Jake Cave, but Cave is not a good hitter at this level. He may kill the ball in AAA, but we have seen more than enough to know he is not going to be a dangerous hitter at this level. They can do better than Cave as their big bat off the bench.
Seranthony Dominguez- Stay
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After a great 2022, Seranthony took a step back. Bullpen arms can be like that. Very few guys are great year to year. But Seranthony has good stuff, and I could easily see next year being a bounce-back. The Phillies have 2 more years of team control. If by then, he has not found consistency, it may be time to move on. But for now, there is no reason not to give him another chance next year.
Gregory Soto- Stay
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I can’t say I trust Soto moving forward. If this was based solely on performance, he would be a go. But he is not a free agent until 2026 and is a relatively cheap option out of the bullpen for the next couple of seasons. He may not have as big of a role next season after disappointing last season, but there is no good reason to move on yet.
Jeff Hoffman- Stay
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Hoffman was a great find. Maybe he shouldn’t be the guy they bring in with runners on anymore. But he should have some role in the bullpen. He became one of their most reliable guys last year. This is his final year of arbitration. After that, it may be a question if they want him long-term. But they don’t have to make that choice yet.
Matt Strahm- Stay
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Strahm is going into the last year of the 2-year deal he signed with the Phillies last year. Is he a top-line bullpen arm? Not really. But he was fairly consistent for them. There is no reason at all to move on. He can’t be one of their main guys, but if you have Strahm as a middle-inning guy again I will feel good about it.
Garrett Stubbs- Go
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We all love Stubbs. But our love for him has nothing to do with his play. He was awful at the plate this year, and his defense is not good enough to make up for it. A backup catcher needs to be good at one of those things and he isnt good at either. They can do better. I’m not sure who that would be, but given JT’s struggles, it may be time to give him more days off to keep him fresh. And if that is the case, you need a backup catcher you feel comfortable playing. Stubbs is not that guy.
Edmundo Sosa- Stay
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Sosa is not a free agent until 2027. He can play anywhere in the infield, and in terms of bench bats, he is decent. Sosa is one of the few bench guys you don’t mind seeing in the lineup occasionally, so there is no reason to move on from him.
Orion Kerkering- Stay
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Kerekering’s playoffs did not go smoothly. Partly because for some odd reason they avoided his fastball. But the kid has the stuff to pitch at this level, they just need to let him use it and stop forcing the Slider. He is not ready to step into a big role like we maybe hoped, but he can be a middle-inning guy to start, and maybe expand his role if he succeeds there.
Christian Pache- Stay
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Is Pache a good player? No. Is he acceptable as a 4th outfielder? Probably. Pache isn’t a free agent until 2028, is cheap, and despite his issues at the plate is great in the Outfield. Pache is not part of their future, and should not be in the starting lineup very often. But as a backup, I am fine with him staying. if they can find a replacement, go for it. But that is not at the top of the priority list.
