Phillies NLCS Collapse Is Just The Latest In A Long Line Of Wounds

At some point in early September, I was digging through some of the final things that were in my parents' house before we put it up for sale. And deep inside one cedar chest of drawers that belonged to my late father- underneath family pictures, military and police commendations and other personal items- was a faded strip of tickets to the 1964 World Series that my dad and grandfather purchased for that fateful Phillies autumn.

That year never faded from his memory not just for the joys that came with it -Jim Bunning and Chris Short, Dick Allen and his personal hero, Johnny Callison- but the scar tissue that was everlasting for his generation from losing a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 games to play for the National League pennant. It was deepened by Black Friday in 1977, healed slightly by the World Series win in 1980 but always ever present on the surface when things went bad.

Every generation with this franchise has that moment when unbridled joy runs smack dab into harsh reality. It is part of the reason why those years that end in confetti are so cherished - because the only thing that normally falls around here is the anvil on the head.

The 2023 Phillies are now in that class- joining the ‘64 Phils, the 2010-11 Fightins, the ‘77 Sixers, the 2002-04 Eagles and the Lindros-era Flyers. They were enormously lovable, created a bond with the city- and yet, will ultimately be remembered for its gigantic failure to win something that seemed destined to be theirs.

The steep and sudden collapse of this team to the Arizona Diamondbacks is something that will be picked upon for generations to come. The reason is simple: the lineup dried up in the desert and never was able to recover. For all of the wrong moves that were made in the bullpen in Games 3 and 4- ones that gave Arizona oxygen in their comeback- the fact remains that Philadelphia came home with two chances to head back to the World Series and squandered both at the plate. A lineup loaded with big salaries produced pennies. A style that can boom with the best went bust.

The suspects are plentiful and familiar. Rob Thomson’s managing in the middle of the season and his full steam ahead orders with the same lineup should come under criticism. The bullpen sagged in the biggest moments. Aaron Nola’s potential final act in Philadelphia in Game 6 was like far too many this summer- underwhelming after glimpses of greatness. By the time Alec Bohm got going, it was too late. But most of the ire will fall upon two people. The first is Trea Turner, whose loss of confidence was evident by the failed bunt in the fifth inning that didn’t advance Kyle Schwarber and who spent the final five games of the series flailing at anything thrown down and away.

The other is Nick Castellanos, who homered in his first NLCS at-bat - and didn’t do anything productive after that. Turner is going to be here- that contract from last winter guarantees that. But Castellanos could be part of a strange dynamic that may make him appealing this winter to move - especially if a more reliable “small ball”, less inconsistent lineup ends up being Dave Dombrowski’s next move. Philadelphia has outfield options in the minors and potentially go bring Rhys Hoskins back by moving Bryce Harper back to right field next year.

The hot stove will burn shortly and Nola’s free agency will be the chief drama. But this team has other holes it must fill- starting with the bullpen. If we assume Craig Kimbrel has thrown his final pitch as a Phillie since he’s a free agent, will Dombrowski decide to go for someone like Josh Hader who is turning 30 but could end up costing money that would be needed to fill Nola’s potential gap at the No. 2 starting spot.

One thing worth keeping an eye on is this: It will be fascinating to see if there’s a long term ripple effect between the relationship between this group and the fan base that seem to bathe in all of the October glory. The Phillies became the “it” team and Citizens Bank Park was the cool bar to be seen at during this summer. But we’ve seen this before: from the time the park opened to 2011, it was a party which demanded people to be seen every night in the hot spot.

In that sense, the honeymoon has ended. Yes, the park will be packed. But the summer of regular season mediocrity probably will not be tolerated next year at the same level because the memories of October’s run from 2022 have faded further in the distance, replaced by a forever scare on the city’s psyche.

It is the latest in a long line of wounds in this town. One that goes from generation to generation. A circle that always seems to come back to the same spot- the one right under the cliff where the anvil just dropped from.

The 2023 offseason has begun earlier than the Philadelphia Phillies wanted it to. Aaron Nola is anticipating free agency this winter instead of looking forward to a chance to solidify his Philadelphia legacy with a memorable performance in the World Series.

Dave Dombrowski faces key decisions to patch up a roster that came up small in the biggest moments against the Arizona Diamondbacks. He needs to address a crossroad at the top of the starting rotation, a shuffle between power hitters on the current roster, and weaknesses in the bullpen and on the bench.

Bryce Harper began the 2022 season recovering from offseason Tommy John surgery. He not only returned surprisingly earlier than his original timeline suggested, but he also began playing a new position.

The $330 million man showed his natural athleticism and competitive spirit with an excellent transition to 1st base. Will he return to right field? How will his decision affect the future of Rhys Hoskins and Nick Castellanos? 

The plans of the organization will hinge on Harper, their superstar and offensive centerpiece.

All contending teams look to make changes to improve their bullpen and bench. The Phillies brought in Gregory Soto and Craig Kimbel last offseason. They made tweaks to their bench during Spring Training and after the start of the 2023 regular season.

Another starting pitcher threw an additional curveball into the situation after the NLCS. Taijuan Walker didn't appear in a postseason game. He still made his presence known with an unnecessarily strong social media stance against Rob Thomson. Now, Aaron Nola in free agency isn't the only question among the starters.

The Phillies no longer have the aftermath of positively that resulted from a miracle run to the World Series in 2022.

They now face the pressure of a stunning playoff exit and a closing window of opportunity to deliver a championship to Philadelphia. How will they handle it?

Aaron Nola entering free agency will be the biggest and most impactful offseason storyline for the Phillies. A contract extension looked like an obvious decision one year ago.

However, the organization cut off negotiations with Nola’s camp during Spring Training in March 2023 because they couldn’t agree on the veteran righty’s value. Is it reasonable to expect negotiations to go any better after Nola’s underwhelming season in 2023? 

Jayson Stark joined The Best Show Ever to talk about the crucial decision.

Nola represented the climb the Phillies made from a disastrous rebuild under Matt Klentak to a National League pennant in 2022. He was one of the few homegrown players who survived the same stretch that fans had endured. 

He also owns the best opponent batting average (.231) and the fifth-best WHIP (1.13) among all qualified Phillies pitchers throughout the past 140 years. He sits fifth in strikeouts and seventh in starts. The former LSU star finished third in NL Cy Young voting in 2018 and fourth in 2022.

The overall body of work shouldn’t be ignored. The organization saw his value once again in his first three starts of the 2023 playoffs.

However, the Phillies need to make the tough decision on a pitcher at age 30 coming off a poor regular season who will cost serious money over a significant term. 

If the Phillies do let Nola walk away, they must find a starting pitcher to pair with Zack Wheeler at the top of the rotation. Stark mentioned the possibility that Dombrowski could pursue Corbin Burnes on the trade market.

Who could the Phillies send to the Milwaukee Brewers for a pitcher only two years removed from a Cy Young Award? Nick Castellanos surprisingly came up in the conversation as a potential trade chip.

It’s amazing how quickly things can change in professional sports.

Nick Castellanos was a hero in Philadelphia after the NLDS victory against the Atlanta Braves. He became the first player in MLB history with two consecutive multi-home run games in the postseason.

Now, he might be the odd man out in the outfield shuffle that hinges on Harper’s decision.

If the best situation for Harper is to move to 1st base long term, the Phillies would become more likely to let Rhys Hoskins walk away in free agency. If he moves back to right field, how does it affect the lineup? Castellanos had an excellent bounce-back season in 2023, and he is under contract for three more seasons.

He brings power that adds to any major league lineup, but the expensive contract makes him less valuable in trade negotiations. 

Castellanos will turn 32 during Spring Training. It would be a shame to see him and his extremely entertaining son leave town, but it might be a necessary part of the big picture. His future hangs in the balance based on Harper and Nola’s future.

Things haven’t always been the smoothest with Rhys Hoskins in Philadelphia, but the fans showed their appreciation for an ultimately accepted and in some ways beloved player when he threw out the first pitch of the playoff opener at Citizens Bank Park.

He deserves every bit of appreciation he got after missing the entirety of the final season of his contract with a torn ACL.

The long-time Phillies slugger will turn 31 during Spring Training. Harper stepped into a position he’d never played and added value with a significantly higher level of defense than Hoskins.

Kyle Schwarber also figures into the organization’s future as the designated hitter much more significantly.

If the Phillies ultimately move Castellanos or make another splashy offseason shakeup, Hoskins could be a cheap option to sure up the lineup with some pop.

He finished each of his first five seasons in red pinstripes with an OPS over .800 and his sixth in 2022 just a tick lower at .794. It’s reasonable to expect him to approach 30 home runs in a full-time role if he stays healthy.

Speculation that he could’ve returned for the (expected) World Series suggests that he is on track for a full recovery. Since the untimely injury, it’s looked like Hoskins’ run in Philadelphia is over.

The slugger is more likely to walk away, but don’t close the door just yet.

It sounds unusual for a future Hall of Famer who closed the All-Star Game after an excellent first half. Craig Kimbrel almost certainly won’t return to Philadelphia.

He didn’t look as sharp down the stretch despite a statistically successful September when he didn’t allow an earned run in 10 of 12 appearances. He even began the playoffs with four scoreless appearances.

The bottom fell out during the NLCS. He took the loss in Game 3 after allowing a walk-off single to Ketel Marte. His biggest gaffe came in Game 4 when he blew a 5-3 lead in a game that ultimately let the Diamondbacks take momentum in the series.

He was a short-term solution at the back end of the bullpen, but the Phillies should not retain Kimbrel for the 2024 season.

Edmundo Sosa’s time in Philadelphia got off to a good start. He was a reliable bench player during the run to the 2022 World Series, and he looked like he could help patch the hole left by Rhys Hoskins early in the 2023 season. However, he didn’t provide as much value with the glove as the Phillies hoped for.

He is eligible for arbitration during the 2024 offseason, and the Phillies should be able to upgrade a bench that made minimal contributions.

When the Diamondbacks recorded the final out of the 2023 NLCS, Jake Cave breathed a sigh of a broken dream after he couldn’t come up with a way to extend the game.

He’s the prototypical AAAA player who can potentially provide value with some pop off the bench. He showed some of it for the Lehigh Valley IronPigs in 2023, but it didn’t translate enough in 65 games with the Phillies.

They should look to upgrade with a left-handed bat off the bench.

The Phillies should look at retaining Jeff Hoffman as a priority during the offseason. He posted his best ERA and a career-high 52 appearances in his eighth major league season in 2023.

While the top right-handed options in the Philadelphia bullpen faded by the end of the NLCS, Hoffman stood tall. He held opponents scoreless in seven of eight playoff appearances.

He is eligible for arbitration, and he should be relatively affordable with an estimated salary of $3-4 million. Dombrowski must do what he can to bring Hoffman back.

https://twitter.com/tai_walker/status/1717059528296903001?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1717059528296903001%7Ctwgr%5Ed92e4063ff6b61ef609db988644b88162d1f6646%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fthelibertyline.com%2F2023%2F10%2F25%2Ftaijuan-walker-phllies-game-7%2F

Rob Thomson clearly had no faith in Taijuan Walker during the postseason. The former New York Mets righty signed a four-year, $72 million contract entering the 2023 season.

He proved himself unreliable with a 7.15 ERA in the 1st inning in 31 starts.

The Phillies shouldn’t want a player on their roster who reacts to a heartbreaking playoff loss by criticizing his manager on social media. Walker also liked tweets from fans with even more vehement language than he used.

Will he stay with the team? Will anyone take an average (at best) pitcher with that kind of salary off their hands? Probably not.

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