Aaron Nola Has Philadelphia Phillies Legacy At Stake In Playoffs

When Aaron Nola takes the mound for the Philadelphia Phillies in the playoffs, any start could be his last time in red pinstripes.

The heightened focus on Nola, an impending free agent, will impact the legacy of a pitcher who ranks near the top in many statistical pitching categories in the history of a franchise that’s been around since 1883.

Is the idea of legacy overrated? Do professional athletes really feel the intensity of high-pressure situations that will affect fan perception after they retire? During postseason games at Citizens Bank Park, the weight of the crowd is as real as in any other situation in professional sports.

Red October at Citizens Bank Park creates an incredible and unique atmosphere in a sport that doesn’t heavily prioritize home field advantage.

However, the Philadelphia crowd hasn’t always embraced Nola as one of the most beloved Phillies.

The former seventh-overall draft pick has been the target of heated venom at times during his career in the majors, especially in 2023.

Nola carries himself with the mild-mannered personality of a soft-spoken Southerner. For better or for worse, it doesn’t bring the same type of allure to Philadelphia that a fierce competitor like Roy Halladay did.

His personality aligns with Cole Hamels more than Halladay, but Nola didn’t win the World Series MVP at age 24 to silence any critics of a persona that didn’t match the cliche Philly style.

Despite his track record as a workhorse who's consistently finished toward the top of the league in innings pitched in recent seasons, Phillies fans simply don’t trust him. They’ve seen too many home runs in the 5th inning. They’ve seen many blown leads in games that looked over and done with. It's impossible for them to feel comfortable and confident when he takes the mound. 

Nola experienced major regression in the month of September each season during the early years of his career. He seemed to reverse the trend in September 2022, and his first two career postseason starts suggested that he’d left the late-season struggles behind. However, the problem reared its ugly head.

Regardless of how you feel about Nola, he’s undeniably one of the most productive statistical pitchers in franchise history. After the 2023 regular season, he had he best opponent batting average (.231) and the fifth-best WHIP (1.13) among all qualified Phillies pitchers throughout the past 140 years. He sits fifth in strikeouts and seventh in starts.

The former LSU star finished third in NL Cy Young voting in 2018 and fourth in 2022. 

Some of the dissatisfaction stems from the natural tendency of the Philadelphia fan base to set high expectations for players with a high draft pedigree looked at as a core piece of a team for multiple seasons.

If he enters free agency, his price tag will be high despite posting an ERA well over 4.00 in 2021 and 2023. The organization shut down contract talks with Nola after Spring Training because the sides were too far apart in negotiations.

Would he hold more value in another organization like the St. Louis Cardinals than he does in Philadelphia? He’d leave behind a complicated legacy.

After the stunning story of Trea Turner and the standing ovations at Citizens Bank Park, Phillies fans know the power of their incredible passion. Aaron Nola could use the same positivity during the playoffs.

Just look back at how much the 2022 postseason run meant for his career journey with the Phillies.

Fans celebrated Rhys Hoskins for the emphatic bat spike after a home run off Spencer Strider in the 2022 NLDS. It was a gesture that symbolized the climb from last place to World Series contention for a player who had survived the barren years of the rebuild.

The Phillies don’t have much homegrown talent. Their most popular players signed in free agency while Hoskins and Nola haven’t always gotten the most patience from the fan base.

However, in October 2023, Phillies fans should remember the good times with Aaron Nola. His legacy still isn’t written just yet, and a World Series ring would wash away any and all disappointment built up over the past nine seasons.

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After dropping game 2 in heartbreaking fashion, the NLDS heads back to Philadelphia. And the pressure is put on Aaron Nola to prevent the Phillies from falling behind. It has been a weird season for the longtime Phillies pitcher. At times he looked as good as ever. But those starts were often sandwiched between mediocrity, and he went into the playoffs with a 4.46 ERA. To his credit though, he went into the playoffs on a high note. And pitched one of the best games of his season to clinch the series vs the Marlins in his last start.

The good news is that Aaron Nola has a very good career against the Braves. His ERA across 33 starts is 3.40, with a 15-10 record and 203 strikeouts. In Citizens Bank Park his numbers are even better. The ERA drops to 2.73, and he has an 11-3 record across 17 starts. And he has never pitched fewer than 5 innings against the Braves at home. His one start against the Braves at home this year saw him go 6 innings, and he gave up no runs and just 2 hits.

And even this year, where Nola has been inconsistent, his overall numbers vs the Braves, both at home and away, are still good. He had one bad start back in May where he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings, But since then he has allowed just 2 combined runs in 12 innings.

In Nola’s one playoff start against the Braves last year, he allowed just one unearned run across 6 innings in a 9-1 win.

So can we expect his good play vs the Braves to continue? Let’s take a look at the individual numbers of the Braves hitters against Nola. Are there any hitters he is particularly good at? Do any of them have Nola’s number?

.327/.411/.673/1.084

16 for 49, 4 HRs, 5 2Bs, 9 RBIs, 7 BBs, 12 Ks

.254/.302/.339/.641

15 for 59, 0 HRs, 5 2Bs, 1 3B, 2 RBIs, 4 BBs, 12 Ks

.389/.421/.759/1.180

21 for 54, 5 HRs, 5 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 9 RBIs, 3 BBs, 16 Ks

.227/.370/.455/.825

5 for 22, 1 HR, 2 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 3 RBIs, 4 BBs, 8 Ks

.255/.283/.510/.793

13 for 51, 4 HRs, 1 2B, 0 3B, 8 RBIs, 2 BBs, 18 Ks

.167/.189/.417/.606

6 for 36, 2 HRs, 3 2Bs, 3 RBIs, 1 BB, 9 Ks

.105/.150/.105/.255

2 for 19, 0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 1 RBI, 1 BB, 7 Ks

.200/.190/.550/.740

4 for 20, 2 HRs, 1 2B, 0 3Bs, 5 RBIs, 0 BB, 6 Ks

.095/.095/.143/.238

2 for 21, 0 HRs, 1 2B, 0 3Bs, 2 RBIs, 0 BBs, 9 Ks

.333/.333/.333/.667

3 for 9, 0 HRs, 0 2Bs, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs, 3 Ks

.250/.250/.375/.625

2 for 8, 0 HRs, 1 2B, 0 3Bs, 0 RBIs, 0 BBs. 4 Ks