The Braves Might Already Be Doomed After 7 Games
The first week of the season has been a disaster for the Braves, to the point that the Phillies might already be able to write them off. It is hard to say a season is over after 7 games. But statistically, it already is for the Braves.
The Braves are 0-7. They got swept in a 4 game series to the Padres, then went up to LA and got swept by the Dodgers. But is 0-7 really a season killer? Historically, that is exactly what is.
The Braves are the 30th team in MLB history to start 0-7. Most recently, the Marlins did it last season after being a Wild Card team in 2023. But that Marlins team and the 28 teams that came before them all have 1 thing in common. Not a single one of them made the playoffs that season.
But as one Braves fan angrily pointed out to me, playoffs are expanded now. In the past, there were seasons when only 2 teams made the playoffs. Several different playoff formats later, you now have 6 teams in each conference make it. So surely in this new era, some of those 0-7 teams would have made the playoffs, right?
There was one, only 1 team, that would have qualified for the playoffs even under the new format. In 1983 the Astros, then in the NL, finished 4th in the conference at 85 wins. But that was also when there were only 24 teams. 85 wins very rarely cuts it for the playoffs, even with a 12-team playoff bracket.
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It Gets Worse For The Braves
But it actually gets even grimmer than that. Only 2 of the 29 teams that started 0-7 finished over .500. Only 3 got to 80 wins. Only 7 got to 70 wins. 15 of the 29 teams failed to reach 60 wins.
You might be saying, okay, but it was not always a 162-game season. Well, the average win % for these teams is (.388). Today would be a 63-99 season. 13 of the 29 teams lost 100 games. 21 lost at least 90 games.
Bad News After Bad News
The 0-7 start is not the only thing they have to worry about though. Their one move in free agency, Jurickson Profar, has already been proven worthless this season. He was suspended for 80 games and is indelible for the playoffs.
On top of that, Reynaldo Lopez’s season might already be over. He had a dazzling 1.99 Era over 26 starts last season. but 1 start into this year, he needed arthroscopic shoulder surgery. It will keep him out for at least the 1st half of the season, but it could keep him out all year.
They are also still without Spencer Strider, who is recovering from major surgery last season, and former MVP Ronald Acuna, also recovering from major surgery. Those 2 are expected back in May, but after sitting for an entire calendar year, it is hard to say what they will have to offer.
The People Who Are Available, Are Struggling
A lot of the Braves star power took a step back last season after it seemed like all of them had career years in 2023. Matt Olson saw his OPS drop over .200 points. Austin Riley saw it drop .080 points. Ozzie Albies saw it drop .140 points. And Ronald Acuna, for the 49 games he played, saw it drop nearly .300 points.
They were already coming off a down year hitting-wise for every player except Marcell Ozuna. But the start to this year, albiet a small sample size, is even worse. Ozuna is the only regular with an OPS over .700. None of them have a SLG over .400, and only 3 of their starters have a SLG over .300. Also, none of their regulars have an AV over .200.
But the pitching struggled too now. Again, it is early, but Chris Sale has had 2 bad starts. 10 innings 6 earned runs. As great as he was last year, it was his first complete season in a long time. Before that Cy Young campaign, the last time he pitched at least 20 games and kept his ERA under 4 was back in 2018. Their bullpen has been a disaster too.
This is more than just a bad start. it is a continuance of a terrible 2024. History is now against them. To bounce back from this, they are going to have to do something no other team has ever done. Good luck with that.