Traditional Leadoff Hitter? How Trea Turner Impacts Phillies Lineup
Rob Thomson has raised the eyebrows of frustrated fans criticizing the Philadelphia Phillies for falling short of a World Series ring despite three consecutive playoff appearances.
His willingness to experiment with Trea Turner as a leadoff hitter might satisfy some fans tired of seeing a dangerous power hitter like Kyle Schwarber at the top of the order for a team that’s gone cold at critical times during Red October.
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If Thomson moves Schwarber out of the leadoff spot in 2025, it could alter the complexion of a lineup in ways that have nothing to do with old adages about a slower runner clogging up the basepaths or wasting home runs by putting Schwarber in position for more solo shots.
The effects of a potential shakeup are actually much deeper.
Leading Off for the Phillies
While the Phillies have fallen short of the ultimate goal during Thomson’s three-year tenure, they’ve also broken out to become one of the best teams in baseball. The comfort level of the players has been a major factor in their success.
The Phillies responded to a manager whose strength is communicating with players and earning their trust.
Schwarber has been one of the best run-producers in the majors in his three seasons with the Phillies. The advantage of maximizing his number of plate appearances by using him in the leadoff spot helped the Phillies finish fifth among MLB teams in runs scored and batting average last season.
Thomson has kept a respected clubhouse leader comfortable in the top spot of the order. The decision has required him to ignore seemingly cyclical sports radio topics about Schwarber’s inadequacies as a traditional leadoff hitter as opposed to a teammate like Trea Turner.
The attitude of a team leader and collective attitude of the ballclub has outweighed the statistical advantages of an optimized batting order. The surprising lack of emphasis the Phillies and other MLB teams place on traditional batting order strengths is a statistical reality that Jayson Stark has mentioned as a key piece of sabermetrics in modern baseball.
Schwarber’s polarizing stat line during the 2023 season underscored the transition of modern MLB lineups and the clash with traditionalists. He led MLB hitters with 215 strikeouts on his way to a .197 average and didn’t steal a base the entire season.
A batting average below the Mendoza line certainly isn’t ideal in the leadoff spot or any other position in the lineup. However, the position of that poor batting average in the order simply doesn’t make as much statistical impact as many people think.
Rob Thomson’s Lineup
Thomson has acknowledged that statistical simulations point to minimal impact of optimized batting orders. His point of view suggests that, ultimately, hitters simply need to produce and outweigh the impact of lineup permutations regardless of their spot in the batting order.
How does Thomson construct his batting order then?
“I certainly take the heartbeat of the player into account. I do believe in the numbers. I truly do, but I think you have to keep people comfortable. I think you have to make sure you keep the confidence in players, live with it for a while if they’re struggling because you never know when they’re going to come out of it.” -Rob Thomson on The Phillies Show
Thomson’s confidence in Schwarber helped encourage a better overall plate approach from the veteran lefty in 2024. He raised his batting average drastically and shaved his strikeout total down without sacrificing too much of his power.
| Kyle Schwarber | Batting Average | On-Base Percentage | Slugging Percentage | OPS+ | Home Runs |
| 2023 | .197 | .343 | .474 | 121 | 47 |
| 2024 | .248 | .366 | .485 | 137 | 38 |
Schwarber maintained his signature short stroke and the ability to hit the ball hard as consistently as any current MLB hitter.
Veteran baseball players step into the box and think more about preferences ingrained in the sport for decades than they do about analytics. Crediting Schwarber’s push for improvement to his perception of a traditional leadoff hitter’s role is a major assumption. However, his position at the top of lineup isn’t separate from his spike in batting average and a more conscious approach at the plate.
If the approach worked so well with Kyle Schwarber, why would Thomson and the Phillies change it in 2025? They need Trea Turner to embrace a similar mentality.
Should Trea Turner Be A Leadoff Hitter?
The Phillies will depend mostly on the internal improvement of veteran hitters in 2025 to solve their offensive vulnerabilities. Dave Dombrowski added Max Kepler as the highest impact bat to a lineup that’s underperformed in three consecutive disappointing postseason exits.
Matt Gelb spoke on The Best Show Ever about hitting coach Kevin Long’s intention to be more forceful about correcting some habits of his veteran hitters.
How much adjusting does Turner need after finishing with the best batting average and the third highest on-base percentage on the Phillies in 2024?
He also finished in the 16th percentile of MLB hitters chasing 33.9% of pitches outside StatCast’s estimated strike zone. He’s slipped into the free-swinging approach a little too frequently in his two seasons with the Phillies and his only full season with the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2022.
Turner also pulled the ball at a drastically higher rate than the MLB average and his career average last season.
The changes in approach have reduced his walk numbers significantly, and his overall numbers have dipped since the earlier years of his career with the Washington Nationals.
He could use some of the same medicine that brought Kyle Schwarber’s batting average from .197 to .248 in one season.
“I think that their idea is by putting Turner at the top, it’s going to force him to think a little bit differently.” -Matt Gelb on The Best Show Ever
Cutting down the chase rate and using the opposite field will be offensive priorities for the Phillies this season. Using Trea Turner at the top of the order could similarly help encourage habits of the traditional leadoff hitter with a more patient approach and less concentration on pulling the ball with a power swing.
Health also played a major factor in Schwarber’s improvement in 2024. Knee injuries limited his ability at points during the 2023 season.
A hamstring injury limited Turner in the second half of last season. A healthy return for Philadelphia’s shortstop could similarly contribute to his elevation into the impact player Dombrowski expected after handing out a $300 million contract entering the 2023 season.
| Trea Turner | At-Bats as leadoff hitter | Percentage of total games as leadoff hitter | Overall Batting Average | Overall On-Base Percentage | Overall Strikeout Rate |
| Washington Nationals (2015-2021) | 1787 | 65.9% | .300 | .356 | 18.1% |
| Los Angeles Dodgers (2021-2022) | 216 | 24.5% | .307 | .353 | 17.6% |
| Philadelphia Phillies (2023-2024) | 64 | 5.4% | .266 | .328 | 20.2% |
A potential lineup shuffle would also keep the Phillies’ best hitters toward the top of the order and maximize their plate appearances, which is a bigger focus of analytics than batting order permutations. Moving another hitter like Bryson Stott to the leadoff spot might not keep the goal intact.
Rob Thomson’s priority for alternating right-handed and left-handed hitters in the batting order presents a possible downside, however. Bryce Harper would likely hit in the two-hole behind Turner, but would the new-look order force Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, or J.T. Realmuto to hit third ahead of Schwarber and push back one of Thomson’s best hitters?
Turner led off in his only two Grapefruit League appearances in February. Schwarber and Johan Rojas also hit first in two games each.
The fascinating balance between modern analytics, baseball purists scrutinizing leadoff hitters, and the evolving mindset of major league hitters will play itself out in one of the most discussed storylines of spring training for a World Series contender.
All numbers courtesy of StatCast, Baseball Reference, and FanGraphs
