This 1 Thing Will Help The Phillies Run The NL East Again
After a collapse to the Mets in the off-season and a relatively quiet off-season, people are a bit down on the Phillies. Watching the Mets add Juan Soto, on top of knowing the Braves will get Ronald Acuna and Spencer Strider back from injury, doesn’t help. But there is one simple reason you should feel good about the Phillies winning the NL East again. Starting Pitching.
The Phillies Still Have The Best Starting Pitching
Zack Wheeler is not only one of the best pitchers in the league, he is one of the most reliable. In his 5 years with the Phillies, he has pitched 829 innings, the 2nd most innings pitched in that time. Mind you that is despite his first season being the Covid season. His ERA was under 3 in 4 of those 5 seasons. He probably should have won 2 Cy Youngs in that time.
Who is the 1 pitcher to pitch more innings in that time than Wheeler? Aaron Nola. HIS ERA has fluctuated up and down. But even with a couple down years, his ERA was still an impressive 3.9, and when he is on there are few pitchers better.
Cristopher Sanchez shocked everyone by pitching to a pristine 3.44 ERA in 2023. He followed it up with a 3.32 ERA last season over 180 innings. The underlying metrics support him keeping that up too. His hard-hit rate, and barrel rate, are both elite. He has a unique ability to generate weak ground balls, getting payers to hit ground balls over 58% of the time.
Ranger Suarez has battled injuries, but he looked like a Cy Young Candidate early on. Things unraveled midway through the year, and he never quite refound his form. But he did deliver a gutsy performance in the playoffs, and he has the 2nd best post-season ERA among active starters.
Then there is the newest addition to the rotation. Their biggest off-season addition, Jesus Luzardo. He is coming off a down year, where he was banged up. But when healthy he has been as good as any lefty in the league. Between 2022 and 2023 he had a 3.48 ERA over 278 innings and struck out 328 hitters. he and Ranger both have to prove they can stay healthy, but the great thing is the Phillies are not relying on them. They have the front-end talent to survive without them if need be.
Finally, there is the true wild card of their rotation, Andrew Painter. He is one of the best pitching prospects in baseball. He missed all of last season after getting Tommy John surgery in 2023.
The last time we saw him he pitched 103 innings across 3 levels in 2022 and had an ERA 2.17. He was so great, he was on track to make the Phillies as a 19-year-old the following season. But the injury killed those plans. It will still limit how many innings he can pitch this season. But he is expected to be called up mid-season, and fans will finally get to see what made him so highly regarded as a prospect.
That is the Phillies rotation. It is one of the best in the league. But the real advantage comes when you compare it to the other rotations in the division.
Mets Have A Serious Problem
The Mets landed the biggest prize of the off-season when they signed Juan Soto. But 1 player can only carry a team so far. And while their lineup sure looks dangerous, their rotation has disaster written all over it.
Sean Manaea and Frankie Montas are starting the year on the IL. Relying on those guys was risky to begin with. Both guys have an ERA over 4 in their career. Manaea seemed to unlock some secret formula late last season, but was that one hot streak, or did a 33-year-old suddenly get much better? Either way, they won’t figure out what either guy has to offer for a while.
After them, they have Kodai Senga, who while talented pitched only 5.1 innings last season. They also have Clay Holmes, who at 31 they are transitioning from the bullpen to the rotation. The most innings he has ever pitched in 1 season is 70.
If you look at David Peterson’s stats, you might think he is a budding star. But that shiny 2.90 ERA was more luck than anything. The underlying metrics were all underwhelming. His barrel rate, xERA, xBA, and the Average Exit Velo off the bat, all suggest a regression to the mean. Batters still hit him hard, they just hit him hard right at his fielders. Odds say many of those hard outs will turn int hits this season.
Rounding out the rotation is Paul Blackburn who has 4.85 career ERA. This is a rotation that can maybe get by in the regular season. But it is not a viable playoff rotation. They may not even have 3 worthy playoff starters come October.
The Braves Biggest Problem Got Bigger
Why did the Braves get embarrassed by the Phillies twice in the playoffs? Starting Pitching. The Phillies had a lot of it, and the Braves had very little. Now they have lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton.
Chris Sale and Reynaldo Lopez both had rare healthy seasons last year. The Braves wasted them. Expecting them both to stay healthy and pitch as many innings as they did last season feels incredibly unlikely given both of their track records. They each pitched more innings last season than they had in the prior 2 seasons combined. In Sale’s case more than his last 3 seasons combined.
Spencer Strider missed almost the entire season in 2024. It was his second catastrophic elbow injury. He has some of the best stuff in the league. But what can they expect from him, and how many innings can they expect, after he threw just 9 in 2 starts last season? He will miss the start of the season, and it is hard to trust him this season even when he gets back.
Speaking of recovering from injury, there is Ian Anderson, who has not pitched since 2022. Anderson looked like the next big thing in 2021. But he struggled in 2022, got injured, and now is one big question mark.
Spencer Schwellenbach rounds out the rotation, and he was solid in his rookie season. But when a guy going into his 2nd season is the surest thing you have, it spells trouble.
Braves have routinely had trouble getting a 4-man, or even a 3-man rotation into the playoffs. They have done nothing to alleviate those question marks. While the Phillies have reliable pitching depth, the Braves have none and would have to turn to the likes of Bryce Elder if any of their question marks at SP don’t pan out this season.
Pitching Makes All The Difference
The Dodgers are another question. The Phillies will need some luck to beat them, but that goes for every team. Not only do they have a great rotation, but they have a great rotation too. It might be the one rotation in the league better than the Phillies.
But when it comes to their other obstacles in the NL, the Phillies have a massive advantage. Starting Pitching. Not only is it a major strength for them, but it has the chance to be a major weakness for both the Braves and The Mets. While the Phillies rely on proven starters, and have depth to spare, the Mets and the Braves both have nothing but question marks.
So if you are looking for a reason for optimism, this is it. The last 3 years may not have ended well, but the Phillies have the pitching to keep up with anyone.
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