Phillies MLB Offseason Targets: Teoscar Hernandez
A disappointing loss in the National League Division Series turned up the heat. Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies feel the pressure to alter their roster during a window of World Series contention.
Juan Soto has already signed with the division rival New York Mets. How will the Phillies counter?
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Their outfield didn’t contribute enough offense to a 95-win team hoping for the ultimate prize. Dombrowski then sat on his couch watching Teoscar Hernandez come up with timely hits that helped the Los Angeles Dodgers win the World Series.
Could the 32-year free agent move east to Citizens Bank Park during the MLB offseason?
Teoscar Hernandez
Hernandez set career highs with 33 home runs and 4.3 WAR in his first season with the Dodgers in 2024.
His .501 slugging percentage and .840 OPS were his highest since the peak of his tenure with the Toronto Blue Jays in 2020 and 2021.
| Teoscar Hernandez | Batting Average | On-Base Percentage | Slugging Percentage | Home Runs (per 162 games) | OPS+ | WAR (per 162 games) |
| 2018-2023 | .262 | .317 | .484 | 32 | 119 | 2.6 |
| 2024 | .272 | .339 | .501 | 33 | 137 | 4.3 |
The nine-year MLB veteran drove up his price tag with an excellent postseason performance. His home run in Game 5 of the NLDS helped the Dodgers avoid an upset at the hands of the red hot San Diego Padres.
He hit the eventual game-winning home run in Game 3 of the World Series, and he wasn’t done tormenting the New York Yankees. His two-run double erased the lead in the fifth inning of Game 5 in the most back-breaking sequence the Bronx Bombers have ever seen.
FanGraphs projects a three-year deal worth $69 million in free agency. Soto’s astonishing number could drive up the price for secondary free agents and push Hernandez’s value toward $75 million.
The reigning Home Run Derby champ spent about two thirds of his time in left field last season. He won’t bring an excellent glove to outfield in Philadelphia. However, the Phillies have demonstrated they’re comfortable with a strong center fielder like Johan Rojas or Brandon Marsh compensating for corner outfielders on the roster more for their offense.
Hernandez stole 12 bases in 15 tries in 2024, and his sprint speed ranked in the 83rd percentile of MLB players. While his baserunning might bring an occasional spark, the object of signing a player his age isn’t for the sake of speed.
Phillies Searching For Plate Discipline
The Phillies went down with a whimper in the NLDS. They must alter a flawed lineup that’s failed to deliver on their World Series expectations.
“It just doesn’t seem to work. I remember being around some Phillies people maybe August of this past year, early September. I said ‘What do you think of your chances (to win the World Series)?’ They said, ‘We don’t think we have good chances because we’re way too easy to pitch to.’ So I think that’s where they have to shake (up) that lineup so the opposing pitchers don’t settle in. They’ve been dominated two straight postseasons now.” –Bob Nightengale on 97.5 The Fanatic
The Phillies finished 25th in the majors last season chasing pitches outside the unofficial strike zone 30.3% of the time.
Dombrowski and Rob Thomson have also emphasized the need for their hitters to hit for power to the opposite field. The approach could eliminate the lineup’s weakness against low breaking pitches, especially on the outer half of the zone and off the plate.
Teoscar Hernandez ranked near the league median last season in his percentage of balls hit to the opposite field and with a 28.7% chase rate. He spread his extra-base hits to all fields at a much higher rate than Phillies lineup staples like Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto, and Kyle Schwarber.
While he won’t individually offset the lineup’s fatal tendencies, Hernandez would provide a better high-profile acquisition than a free swinger like Anthony Santander or a pull-happy hitter like Alex Bregman.
Dombrowski must consider one additional wrinkle when analyzing Hernandez’s plate discipline. He chased over 30% of pitches outside the unofficial strike zone in each of his two Silver Slugger seasons with the Blue Jays, a change of pace from a more conservative approach in the early seasons of his career.
Hernandez matured with improved plate discipline for the Dodgers in 2024, his only other season with a Silver Slugger Award, which could help convince the Phillies to invest in an older player who helps them immediately.
The MLB Hot Stove
A 68-year-old President of Baseball Operations with a long history of aggressive moves won’t stand pat after one acquisition like Jordan Romano.
Urgency spurs action in a major market like Philadelphia with an executive like Dombrowski calling the shots, a hungry owner like John Middleton willing to open his checkbook, and high-profile stars like Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola best fit to earn their first ring sooner rather than later.
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Signing Teoscar Hernandez would help maximize the odds of a World Series in 2025 while filling a need in the outfield with a better lineup fit than other lucrative free agents like Bregman or Santander.
The Phillies should aggressively lure Hernandez to Citizens Bank Park with an impressive offseason splash.
All advanced numbers according of StatCast (unless otherwise noted)
