Phillies MLB Offseason Targets: Alex Bregman
A disappointing loss in the National League Division Series turned up the heat. Dave Dombrowski and the Philadelphia Phillies feel the pressure to alter their roster during a window of World Series contention.
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Juan Soto has already signed with the division rival New York Mets. Could Alex Bregman, arguably the second-best position player on the free agent market, come to Citizens Bank Park two years after helping to crush the hearts of Phillies fans with the Houston Astros in the 2022 World Series?
Fit With The Phillies
Continuous reports suggest the Phillies have shopped Alec Bohm as one of their top trade chips. Dealing the embattled 28-year-old could bring back Garrett Crochet or other pitching reinforcements.
The simple and logical way to fill the void Bohm would leave is by utilizing the advantage of a major market payroll to sign the top available third baseman.
The right-handed Bregman could bring good plate discipline and a defensive upgrade at the hot corner. A free agent acquisition would also please his former LSU roommate Aaron Nola.
It would legitimize Dombrowski’s place in the MLB offseason arms race and help the Phillies keep up with the high-profile acquisitions of the Mets and the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Bregman could slide into Rob Thomson’s lineup to replace Bohm almost too simply.
FanGraphs estimates that the 30-year-old will sign a free agent deal for six years worth $162 million ($27 million in average annual value). A Scott Boras client will inevitably ask for even more.
The Phillies have spent big on Bryce Harper and Trea Turner in recent offseasons. They will evaluate whether a third long-term contract to an infielder over 30 makes sense with Bohm and Bryson Stott still on the roster and star prospect Aidan Miller rising through the minors.
Alex Bregman
The two-time World Series champion’s best seasons came from 2017-2019 toward the beginning of his career.
Bregman finished fifth in AL MVP voting in 2018 and second in 2019. He was blossoming with outstanding offensive numbers at age 25 before most MLB players typically reach their peaks.
While he’s still remained toward the top offensive tier of MLB third basemen the past five seasons, his numbers have slipped. The Astros got caught stealing signs from opposing dugouts after the 2019 season, although it’s impossible to attribute the full impact of the (now) missing advantage.
Bregman’s baserunning is an element that has faded from his all-around value. He stole 17 bases in 2017 but only eight in the past four seasons combined.
He’s improved defensively enough to win his first career Gold Glove last season.
Plate discipline has become a hot topic surrounding the Phillies after the past two disappointing playoff exits. Their aggressive lineup is susceptible to cold spells against teams that follow the book on how to shut them down, especially with low breaking pitches.
Bregman’s raw numbers might catch the eye of the Phillies. He’s consistently graded well in advanced plate discipline metrics throughout his career.
The Astros slugger ranked in the 82nd percentile of qualified MLB hitters in chase rate at 23.6%, the 98th percentile with a 12.8% whiff rate, and the 94th percentile with a 13.6% strikeout rate.
The Phillies by comparison ranked 25th in the majors in chase rate at 30.3%, 19th in whiff rate at 25.9%, and 15th in total strikeouts with 1370.
Think Beyond Chase Rate
Dombrowski shifted the focus beyond raw chase rate statistics in his end-of-season media availability.
“I really would like us to use the whole field a little bit more at times. We become a pull-oriented club at times too much for me. In the postseason when you look at it, a lot of our hits didn’t come the opposite way. That’s something we’ve already talked about ourselves. Now the hitters have to buy into that, too.” -Dave Dombrowski
Rob Thomson regularly talks about how sluggers like Harper, J.T. Realmuto, and Nick Castellanos are at their best when they hit with power to all fields.
He echoed Dombrowski with an emphasis on avoiding too much focus on pulling pitches for extra-base hits.
“I think you just have to get them to slow the game down at times and stay in that approach (using the whole field and) be cognizant that the pitchers are going to try and get you to chase because that’s what the numbers say. If you stay with that approach, I think you cut down on chase. I think you get more base hits.” -Rob Thomson
Bregman has not typically used all fields throughout his nine-year MLB career. He hit the ball to the opposite field on 20.9% of his contact last season, a rate fairly consistent with his career averages.
He pulled the ball toward left field on all but one of his 26 home runs.
Alec Bohm conversely hit the other way 29.5% of the time. Bregman’s rate falls below the Phillies’ team average from last season and below the 25.2% MLB average.
MLB Hot Stove
Dombrowski looks poised to strike with a secondary move that follows the Juan Soto signing.
However, a future Hall of Fame executive doesn’t win pennants with four different franchises making moves for the sake of pleasing fans and analysts.
He must properly evaluate the overall fit Bregman brings to the lineup.
If the Phillies decided to trade Alec Bohm and sign Alex Bregman, they’d add significant payroll in favor of an older player who comes with a long-term commitment that affects Aidan Miller’s path to the majors in the coming seasons.
Replacing Bohm with Bregman would require the Phillies to allocate resources for (more than likely) their biggest offseason move while also removing Bohm’s favorable plate approach that Dombrowski and Thomson emphasized on the record.
The decision extends well beyond simple chase rate statistics, and it would only be plausible if the Phillies had an additional way to reshape the flaws of their lineup.
Dave Dombrowski has the creativity and the resources to shuffle the roster with a more complex series of moves.
All advanced numbers according of StatCast (unless otherwise noted)
