Evaluating 3 Phillies Rumored in MLB Trade Market: Brandon Marsh
The trade rumors started swirling almost immediately after the MLB offseason began. Bob Nightengale of USA Today listed Nick Castellanos, Alec Bohm, and Brandon Marsh as potential candidates from the Philadelphia Phillies who could be on the move this winter.
“Simply, scouts say, they’re (the Phillies are) just too easy to pitch to come crunchtime with their big swingers and contact-challenged hitters. If someone needs a slugger like Nick Castellanos, or outfield help in Brandon Marsh, or third baseman Alec Bohm, the Phillies are listening.” -Bob Nightengale
What kind of trade value do the three players have? How should other MLB teams view them? How do Dave Dombrowski and the Phillies evaluate them internally?
- Evaluating 3 Phillies Rumored in MLB Trade Market: Nick Castellanos
- Evaluating 3 Phillies Rumored in MLB Trade Market: Alec Bohm
Brandon Marsh Brings Legitimate Value
Dombrowski acquired a serviceable player ahead of the MLB Trade Deadline in 2022. Marsh contributed in center field through a surprise run to the World Series after a series of trades that sent Mickey Moniak and Logan O’Hoppe to the Los Angeles Angels.
Marsh has become an important part of the clubhouse culture at Citizens Bank Park that’s received praise throughout MLB circles. He’s also brought strengths as an above average outfielder and a good baserunner.
He hasn’t developed into a key contributor at the top of the lineup entering his age 27 season, however.
Dombrowski will have a hard time reshaping the center of a “roster with big swingers and contact-challenged hitters” that Nightengale mentioned. Moving a secondary piece like Marsh might be more realistic in Philadelphia’s offseason strategy.
“Maybe you take one of your cheaper regulars – the Bohm, Marsh, (Bryson) Stott bucket I guess you could say– and pair them with one of your better prospects and try to go get a better young kind of talent that’s been in the big leagues already that has proven to be a big league contributor for another team that fits in your lineup better.” -Matt Gelb on 97.5 The Fanatic
Does A Brandon Marsh Trade Make Sense?
The raw numbers paint a positive picture of Marsh’s trade value.
His .747 OPS in 2024 exceeded the dwindling .711 MLB average in an era when outfield production has become harder to find.
Marsh finished with seven defensive runs saved, according to Fan Graphs, and earned consideration as one of three National League Gold Glove finalists in left field. He also stole 19 bases in 22 tries.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber were the only Phillies last season who finished with higher WAR than Marsh, who racked up 3.1. Nick Castellanos, conversely, finished with only 0.8.
Marsh’s shortcomings made him less than an ideal fit for the Phillies. He finished in the bottom third percentile among qualified MLB hitters with a 32.4% strikeout rate.
Although he showed plate discipline and avoided the chase rate problem that some Phillies hitters faced, he still whiffed too often for a hitter who doesn’t provide game-changing power in a lineup without many grinders who wear down pitchers with tough at-bats.
Marsh didn’t show the ability to hit left-handed pitching enough to demand a full-time role over an underwhelming offensive player like Johan Rojas.
A .192 average against lefties and a .262 average against righties indicates a player better served in a platoon role than his WAR, DRS, and OPS might indicate.
Other MLB teams might rightfully recognize the upside of Brandon Marsh when exploring offseason trade options. He also brings the appeal of inexpensive club control for three remaining years.
Dombrowski added a player for two and a half seasons that helped the Phillies win five postseason series. However, if the future Hall of Fame executive comes across a larger-scale move that requires giving up some valuable trade chips, Marsh could become expendable in the big picture of an organization looking to maximize their World Series window.
Advanced stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, Fan Graphs, and Baseball Savant.
