Stop Being Miserable About The Phillies, Embrace Red October
For the 3rd straight year now, we get Red October. After two years of the Phillies settling for a Wild Card, they claimed the 2nd best record in the entire league and got a bye week. It should be a reason for joy, for excitement. But around the city, there is a distinct lack of positivity.
The last 2 years, where the Phillies lost in the World Series, and then in the NLCS, have fans fearing more heartbreak. Before they even take the field, they are feeling the stress and pain that comes with that loss. “The bats will go cold,” they say. “This team isn’t clutch, they can’t hit with RISP,” they also say. A decent chunk of the fanbase, or at least the most vocal section, seems to have already accepted they will lose.
Now I can’t guarantee they win anything. Baseball is weird, and the playoffs are even weirder. The Braves were one of the best teams we ever saw last year, and the Phillies easily dispatched them. All I can do is point out how good this Phillies team is and debunk some of the myths the Debbie Downers are spreading.
Phillies Don’t Struggle With RISP
I already wrote a whole article on this, so I won’t spend too much time on it. But in case you didn’t see that article, I will make the point again here. Many people have convinced themselves the Phillies suck at hitting with Runners In Scoring Position. They have seen it with their own eyes, and they are sure that it is a fact.
As a team, they hit .267 with RISP. You might think that number is bad, but it is the 7th best in baseball. better than the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, Guardians, Tigers, Orioles, and Braves. The only 2 teams that are better than them by more than just a couple of points are the Diamondbacks, not in the playoffs, and the Royals, in the AL.
Even if you only take the 2nd half, they are 10th, ahead of the Yankees, Braves, and O’s, and only a couple points behind the Padres, Brewers, and Mets.
You think they are bad because you watch them and remember the times they failed. But if you watched the other 29 teams every day instead, you would probably think the same about them. Baseball is a sport where you fail the majority of the time. So we are going to see the Phillies fail most of the team when they have RISP. But they fail less in those situations than most teams.
Related: Busting The Myth That The Phillies Struggle With RISP
The Best Pitching Staff In Baseball
Ranger Suarez is a fair concern. He has not looked right since July. So if you want to be worried about him, for enough.
But here is the thing. Take him away, they still have the best pitching staff in the league. Most teams can’t field 3 quality starting pitchers, and Phillies fans are panicked about the 4th guy. You only need that 4th guy to pitch twice. They won’t need to pitch at all in the NLDS, and then they will have 1 start in the NLCS, and 1 in the World Series, provided you get there. It is a luxury, but not a necessity. It is also something almost no team has.
Then you get to the bullpen. Jeff Hoffman, Matt Straham, Orion Kerkering, Carlos Estevez, Jose Alvarado. 5 shutdown guys in 1 pen.
I know I may get some groans when I put Alvarado in that category because for some reason Phillies fans insist he is not very good. But ever since he took a personal break to address some family problems in Venezuela, he has been fantastic.
In September he had a 2.89 ERA over 9.1 innings and a 0.86 WHIP. He held the other team scoreless in 8 out of his 10 outings. He allowed 0 baserunners in 5 out of those 10 outings. He allowed only a single baserunner in 8 out of 10.
Alvarado was their best pitcher out of the pen in 2022. He was their best pitcher out of the pen in 2023. Outside a slump this year, that may have been attached to personal problems that according to him have now been addressed, he has been one of their best this year.
Meanwhile, Hoffman and Strahm have been dominant all year, and Kerkering has allowed a run in just 2 of his last 16 outings. 1 of those was a blowup game where he gave up 3 runs, but every pitcher has those. The more important thing is consistency and Kerkering has only 1 month all year where he allowed a run in 3 outings.
Add on Carlos Estevez, and his 2.45 ERa/ 0.91 WHIp, and you have a pen better than any in baseball. In 2022 they had 2 guys out of the pen. Last year they had 3 guys, and their closer, Kimbrel, was a mess. Now they have 5.
Combine that with 3 great starting pitchers, it is hard to see teams scoring many runs on this team.
It Is Red October, Enjoy It
Stop looking for complaints, and look at what is in front of you. A fantastic team, with an elite pitching staff, and a lineup that goes deeper than almost any team left in the playoffs.
Maybe in a month they give you a real reason to be miserable. But why be miserable before you have to be? This team is fantastic. They have everything a championship team needs. Enjoy it. Get into the holiday spirit. Red October is too much fun to waste away by being scared. If you are scared, get a dog.
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