The Phillies Are Who I Thought They Were
Amidst this Phillies recent collapse there have been lots of opinions shared. I’ve run the gamut of emotions but one thing has remained consistent, I believe they will get this train back on the tracks. How they re going to do that should actually be a simple equation. The starting pitching has to stabilize, the lineup has to return to regular expected form and their improved bullpen needs to perform. I’ve come to understand that the Phillies are exactly who I thought they were. I’m also here to tell you that isn’t a bad thing!
I called for a 96-win season and a National League East Championship
A month ago that would have sounded like a crazy prediction for all of the right reasons. At one point if they played just .500 baseball they would have been a 97-win baseball team. Now they will have to win at a 31-23 clip to get to 96 wins. That seems very doable, but it now makes the upcoming West Coast road trip very tricky. They will try to stop the bleeding and rebound. After that trip, the schedule gets far more favorable. They still have a comfortable lead before starting this upcoming challenge.
It’s been two different seasons so far
As our own Colin Newby pointed out yesterday, in the first third of the season the Phillies were 38-16. They played .703 baseball which is a ridiculous clip. In the second third of the season that wrapped up yesterday, the Phillies finished 27-27. It leaves them on pace to be a 98-win baseball team but the recent trending has been less than desirable. Unlike the last two seasons where that stretch occurred in the first half of the seasons, this year that happened in the middle. Here is the proof;
2024
1st 1/3 – (38-16)
2nd 1/3 – (27-27)
2023
1st 1/3 – (25-29)
2nd 1/3 – (33-21)
2022
1st 1/3 – (25-29)
2nd 1/3 – (35-19)
They are only 5 games ahead of last year’s pace
The Braves and Mets are both franchises that have corrected their early struggles, but neither appears to be a 100 win threat. It’s unlikely either could get to that mark. That is why the recent struggles reflect a moment of awareness. This team is looking exactly like they were the previous two seasons.
The Phillies are flawed
The good news is that everyone else in the NL is too! It’s going to be imperative that they get rolling again, but the fact is they are on pace to be better that they have been the past two seasons. Don’t get me wrong, if they blow this divisional lead it will be a huge embarassment. I ask you this.
Will you bet against this team being able to turn it on during Red October? If you say yes you are just being contrary. The Phillies have better recent post season pedigree than the Dodgers and the Braves. If the Phillies stabilize themselves, this bump in the road is going to seem like a distant memory.
Watch Kincade & Salciunas on the 97.5 The Fanatic YouTube page for discussion about the latest breaking sports news in Philadelphia.
MLB All-Star Game: Record 8 Phillies To Represent National League
Bryce Harper
.303/.399/.582
20 home runs, 58 RBI
8th All-Star SelectionBaseball’s greatest showman lands in the headlines constantly. Whether it’s the creative headbands and cleats or the signature celebration slide in the MLB London Series, Bryce Harper is the face of baseball.
Will he compete in the MLB All-Star Game though? The Phillies placed Harper on the 10-day IL on June 28 with no definitive timetable for his return. The league surely wants him at the midsummer classic. He’s an ideal contestant for the Home Run Derby, but Harper and the Phillies also have his long-term health in mind.
Bryce Harper has shown yet another instance of his otherworldly qualities transitioning to a new full-time position at first base. He’s graded as a plus defender already, but he still has room for improvement in the daily fundamentals of a position he hasn’t played very long.
The two-time NL MVP will compete for more hardware if his stint on the IL doesn’t ruin his chances. He ranks seventh in the majors in WAR despite fewer at-bats than the six other top-tier superstars ahead of him.
His .981 OPS ranks fifth in the majors, and he was on pace for a career high 43 home runs before the injury. Harper has hit .391 with runners in scoring position this season, the second best among qualified hitters.
Harper remarkably earned NL Player of the Month honors in May and June. He is the unquestioned superstar and face of the franchise chasing the elusive World Series title in his 13th MLB season.
Photo by Alex Pantling/Getty Images
Alec Bohm
.296/.346/.487
11 home runs, 70 RBI
1st All-Star SelectionThe narrative surrounding Alec Bohm is as interesting as his performance in the middle of Philadelphia’s lineup this season.
The homegrown third baseman didn’t look like he’d stick full time at the position during the infamous “I f—ing hate this place” game in 2022.
He spoke with admirable humility after earning his first All-Star appearance two years later.
“It’s obviously one of those things that kinda just makes you think about all the time and all the games you’ve played. The good ones, the bad ones. It makes it all worth it… You play baseball long enough, it’s not always going to be pretty but a lot of those failures and a lot of that stuff are teaching moments, too. Little ways to make yourself better in the long run. I think all of it’s kinda happened exactly how it should. It’s brought me to where I am today.” -Alec Bohm (via NBC Sports Philadelphia)
The 27-year-old unquestionably deserves the accolades over bigger names like Nolan Arenado or Austin Riley.
Only Aaron Judge, Jose Ramirez, and Marcell Ozuna have driven home more runs than Alec Bohm in 2024. The former third-overall pick leads the majors with 30 doubles.
Development in specific areas of the game has driven his overall value to the Phillies. While he’ll probably never compete for a Gold Glove at third base, his steady improvement has allowed the entire lineup to fall into place defensively for a team that looked like it was made up of DHs only two years ago.
Bohm’s abilities to cover the whole plate with his swing and hit to all fields have always been a key element of his talent as a hitter.
However, he’s improved his power numbers by developing a stronger pull swing that’s helped him rack up the extra-base hits. He’ll also participate in the Home Run Derby.
The All-Star appearance should become one of the proudest moments of Alec Bohm’s career.
Trea Turner
.335/.381/.498
7 home runs, 23 RBI
3rd All-Star SelectionMLB rate stats require 3.1 at-bats to qualify as a league leader. Trea Turner isn’t one of the 11 NL shortstops to make the cut.
Go ahead and debate the merits of the voting process that elected a player who missed 38 games in the first half of the season. However, the fans vote for the players they’d like to see most in an event designed to promote baseball.
Turner has been excellent in the 51 games he’s played for the Phillies, however.
The same star shortstop from late in the 2023 season showed up to begin the 2024 season. Turner hit .343 with an .852 OPS through May 3, when he rounded third to (successfully) steal home and suffered a hamstring injury that kept him out until June 17.
The 2021 NL batting champ picked up where he left off in the two-hole for Rob Thomson. His two-run single capped off an excellent comeback against the Miami Marlins on June 30 two days after Harper and Kyle Schwarber went to the IL. He carried the offense again with the two sluggers out in a series-opening win at Wrigley Field two days later.
Turner has raised his OPS to .879. He’s stolen 11 bases in 12 tries, and his perfect form slide is an x-factor the stats can’t quantify.
While his glove hasn’t impressed consistently, Turner ranks second in batting average behind only Steven Kwan of the Cleveland Guardians among hitters with 170 plate appearances.
Zack Wheeler
9-4, 2.74 ERA, 0.99 WHIP (18 starts)
2nd All-Star SelectionThe ace of the staff went 3-0 with a 1.95 ERA during the 2023 MLB Playoffs. The domination pushed Dave Dombrowski to sign Zack Wheeler to a three-year extension worth over $41 million in average annual value.
Wheeler has shown why he’s worth that kind of money. He is one of only three MLB pitchers with an ERA under 3.00, a WHIP under 1.00, an opponent batting average under .200, and over 100 innings pitched.
He’s struck out at least 10 batters in three different starts in 2024. Wheeler brings the heat with a four-seam fastball that clocks at 96 miles per hour consistently, but he also mixes pitches well to help establish a standard the Phillies staff shoots for.
Philadelphia’s starters attack hitters as well as any MLB starting rotation. Their ace leads by example and gives less experienced pitchers like Ranger Suarez and Cristopher Sanchez someone to emulate.
The 34-year-old right-hander has even drawn comparisons to Roy Halladay because of his competitive demeanor and intense focus. He’s listed as the NL Cy Young favorite by most sportsbooks.
Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images
Ranger Suarez
10-3 , 2.58 ERA, 1.02 WHIP (18 starts)
1st All-Star SelectionRanger Suarez unexpectedly led the major leagues in ERA through the first half of 2024. He pitched 32 consecutive scoreless innings in April, using his off-speed pitches to make opposing hitters look helpless.
His two most recent starts have dropped his stats out of the top tier of MLB starters. However, his 1.02 WHIP, one of the predictive stats for pitchers, still ranks 11th in the majors.
Phillies fans have known the cool, confident demeanor of Ranger Suarez from his MLB debut in 2018 to his breakout season in 2021 to his spot as a key piece of a World Series hopeful team in 2024. They’ve come to expect business as usual when he takes the mound every fifth game.
The Venezuelan southpaw has finally drawn national attention this season. He’s a legitimate candidate for NL Cy Young past the midway point.
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
Matt Strahm
36 games , 1.59 ERA, 0.82 WHIP
1st All-Star SelectionThe Phillies locked up Matt Strahm to a two-year extension just before the 2024 season began. The 32-year-old journeyman has made Dave Dombrowski look like a genius for his foresight.
Strahm allowed two earned runs in ⅓ of an inning on Opening Day against the Atlanta Braves. He went on an absolute tear as Rob Thomson’s “Swiss army knife” out of the bullpen.
The Phillies have utilized the veteran lefty in high-leverage spots throughout the season.
“I trust him as much as anybody really. He’s throwing the baseball really well right now, as good as I’ve seen him to tell you the truth… His fastball is really getting on people. His secondary pitches are good. He has no heartbeat. He really lives for those moments.” -Rob Thomson
Strahm told Andrew Salciunas during spring training that he allowed a big hit to Carson Wentz in his last high school game when the two future professionals faced each other in North Dakota.
Perhaps he’s trying to make it up to the city of Philadelphia.
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
Jeff Hoffman
38 games , 1.21 ERA, 0.88 WHIP (38 games)
1st All-Star SelectionThe Phillies didn’t expect Jeff Hoffman to play a key bullpen role in 2023. They certainly didn’t expect him to overtake Seranthony Dominguez as the top right-hander during the postseason.
They probably didn’t expect him to match his career-best season in 2024. He’s somehow exceeded that statistical output.
Hoffman has developed into a power pitcher whose 6-foot-5 reach and high 90s fastball intimidates opposing hitters. He has earned his role as Thomson’s preferred righty at the back end of one of the best major league bullpens.
While he doesn’t boast the profile of a shutdown closer, Hoffman has been as good as any MLB reliever in 2024.
“We have a lot of talent, whether it’s the young kid Orion (Kerkering) or Alvy (Jose Alvarado), or Ser (Seranthony Dominguez) or (Gregory) Soto, we have so many guys with closing experience, so many guys with experience pitching at the back end. I think that’s going to be a really, really big strength for us not having to necessarily dictate ‘This guy is our 9th inning guy. This guy is our 8th inning guy.’ I think we have so many different weapons that we can use in those situations.” –Jeff Hoffman on 97.5 The Fanatic
Photo by Tim Nwachukwu/Getty Images
BONUS: Cristopher Sanchez
7-4, 2.96 ERA, 1.23 WHIP (18 starts)
1st All-Star SelectionEvery veteran starting pitcher on the market came up in MLB hot stove conversations involving the Phillies. Dave Dombrowski showed confidence in an internal option instead.
Cristopher Sanchez has blossomed into an MLB All-Star at age 27. The best starting rotation in the majors consists of pitchers who feed off each other’s success. Sanchez has benefitted as much as anyone from the presence of Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and other veterans in the clubhouse.
Dombrowski rewarded Sanchez’s outstanding development in June with a four-year contract extension.
The Dominican southpaw outperformed all reasonable expectations with a 1.83 ERA in 10 starts in May and June.
He capped off his NL Pitcher of the Month effort in June with a complete game shutout against the Miami Marlins on June 28. Rob Thomson echoed Dombrowski’s vote of confidence after the dominant performance.
“I’m so proud of this kid because he’s come so far. He’s a dominant pitcher really in Major League Baseball. You saw him a couple years ago. I didn’t think he’d be able to do it, but he’s worked hard. He’s trusted his coaches in the minor leagues, his coaches here, and it’s phenomenal.” -Rob Thomson
The original NL All-Star roster included Chris Sale of the Atlanta Braves,. However, the resurgent veteran lefty will start on Sunday, July 14 just two days before the game.
The Phillies extended a franchise record when they received their eighth invitation.
Photo by Rich Schultz/Getty Images
