The Phillies Should Have Made That Corbin Burnes Trade
It has been a quiet off-season for the Phillies. As of now, it seems like they will be running back mostly roster. And on the one hand, this is the roster that was a game away from the World Series last year, and most of the same guys who made it there the year before. On the other, they fell short in both those seasons. And they have also seen the Braves get a bit better, and the Dodgers get much better. Meanwhile, the Phillies have done nothing to keep up with them. And recently, they missed a chance to change that with Corbin Burnes.
The former Cy Young was traded to the Orioles on Thursday. They gave up their 6th best prospect in SS Joey Ortiz, relief pitcher D.L Hall, and one of their draft picks. Not an insignificant haul, but they got to hold onto all of their best prospects. Certainly worth it for the caliber of pitcher they got in return.
Were the Phillies ever in on him? Not that we’ve heard of. But should they have been? Absolutely. Come playoff time, the Phillies will have to go against the Dodgers’ crazy lineup they have now added Shohei Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez to. On top of that, their pitching rotation in the playoffs will now be Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Walker Buehler, Tyler Glasnow, and eventually Dustin May. Beating them is not going to be easy. And the Phillies need to bolster their roster if they are going to do it.
The Phillies Lost Their Big Advantage In The Playoffs
The Phillies have had an advantage in the last couple of seasons in the playoffs. They were the only team in the NL with a playoff rotation that went 3 pitchers deep. Wheeler, Nola, Suarez. No one in the NL came close to touching that in the past couple of seasons. That won’t be the case this year. In fact the Dodgers can now 1-up them with a 4 pitcher rotation. It can go Wheeler vs Yamamoto, Nola vs Buehler, Suarez vs Glasnow, and then May vs… Cristopher Sanchez?
The Phillies just lost the primary advantage that kept them so competitive the past couple of seasons. The Phillies lineup is great. But so are the Dodgers and Braves. In fact on paper, you could argue those lineups are better. What has really separated the Phillies from them, and everyone else, is the massive advantage they had in terms of pitching. The Dodgers rotation was a mess last year. The Braves only had 1 reliable starter come playoff time. That could be true again for the Braves. But the Dodgers will likely come into the playoffs with the best rotation on paper. And it will only get worse a year later when they add Ohtani resumes pitching.
Corbin Burnes would have changed that though. If you went Wheeler, Burnes, Nola, and Suarez, it would beat any other rotation in baseball.
What Would a Phillies Trade Have Looked Like?
Joey Ortiz is the 63rd-ranked prospect in baseball as of now. The closest comparison for the Phillies is Aidan Miller, who is ranked two spots higher at 61. He is not as close to the majors as Ortiz is, but probably has a higher ceiling to make up for it. Thats probably who the Phillies would have given up as the main piece in any Burnes deal. Justin Crawford may have also done the trick. He is close to the majors, but ranked below Miller.
So would giving Miller up be worth it for Burnes? As high as his ceiling is, probably. He is 19 years old. At best, he will make it to the Majors in 2026. 2027 is a more realistic goal. 3 years from now. By then Harper will be 34, Turner and Nola 33, and Schwarber and Castellanos will be gone. Wheeler may be gone too, and even if they re-sign him, he will be 36. The point being, the Phillies’ time to win, is now. We don’t know what they will even look like in 2027, or if they will be capable of contending still. But right now, they can win a World Series. And with Burnes, they might stand a better chance than anyone in the NL to go to the World Series.
D.L. Hall is harder to find a comparison for. He is a former top-100 prospect, who has now moved to the bullpen. The Brewers may have asked for a guy like Mick Abel, who is currently a top-100 prospect. But even if that is the case, it still would have been worth it. With Brunes, you stand a better chance to win right now. Abel likely won’t be part of any playoff rotation, even if he does make his debut this season.
Whatever the deal wound up being, they probably should have made it. Prospects are great. And you need to have some level of farm system to function. But proven players are better than prospects. We have seen so many prospects come and go. Kyle Drabek was supposed to be an Ace. Domonic Brown was supposed to be a superstar. Scott Kingery and Maikel Franco were once ranked prospects. None of them panned out. But we know who Burnes is. And we know he can help them win right now.
What is next for the Phillies?
Their options to improve this offseason have mostly disappeared. There are still pieces they can add that will round out the roster, but they have missed their chance at making a splash unless there is a player available no one is talking about. They could still add at the trade deadline. And maybe that is Dombrowski’s plan. But as of now, their chances to win it this season are lower than they were to begin the offseason. They needed to shake things up a bit after how the season ended. And just bringing Nola back on a new contract, albiet one that is still team-friendly, is not enough. Not with everything the Dodgers did.
Corbin Burnes was a big chance for the Phillies to make that kind of move. The price the Orioles had to pay was not too unreasonable. They got a proven ace and held onto their best prospects. It is a move the Phillies should have made. Now we have to hope they can make that splash in July.
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History of Philadelphia Phillies World Series Appearances
Ya Gotta' Believe (1980)
The franchise began as the Philadelphia Quakers in 1883, and the first World Series took place 20 years later. However, Phillies fans had to wait until 1980 to celebrate their first World Series.
Mike Schmidt led the team with two home runs and seven RBIs in the series. Tug McGraw struck out Willie Wilson for the final out in Game 6 at Veterans Stadium end the drought.
Macho Row Falls to Joe Carter (1993)
The 1993 Phillies became one of the most beloved teams in Philadelphia sports history because of the “Macho Row” mentality that landed so perfectly with the fan base. A colorful mix of personalities like Curt Schilling, Lenny Dykstra, and John Kruk helped push the Phillies past the Braves in the NLCS.
One of the most infamous moments in franchise history ended the memorable ride. Mitch Williams surrendered a walk-off home run to Joe Carter in the 9th inning of the Game 6 clincher.
Surviving Mother Nature (2008)
The Phillies announced a new era of dominance in 2007 by storming back on the New York Mets for their first playoff appearance in 14 years. However, they left the fan base hungry for more with a quick playoff exit. Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Cole Hamels delivered one year later with an unforgettable playoff run.
Shane Victorino’s grand slam helped the Phillies to a commanding lead in the NLDS. Matt Stairs hit an absolute moonshot at Dodger Stadium. Utley made the best heads-up play in MLB history for the third out of the 7th inning in the clincher.
Mother Nature made them wait two extra days, but Brad Lidge eventually threw the final strike to break a 25-year championship drought for major professional sports teams in Philadelphia. Hamels took home the hardware as the World Series MVP at age 24.
Just Short of Back-to-Back World Series (2009)
The defending NL champions sunk the Dodgers again in the NLCS to advance back to the World Series. Cliff Lee dominated a stacked Yankees lineup in Game 1, but the Phillies ultimately ran out of gas just short of the finish line.
Cole Hamels ended his disappointing 2009 season with a Game 3 loss. Alex Rodriguez, Derek Jeter, and Hideki Matsui overwhelmed a pitching staff that didn’t have enough behind Lee to win consecutive titles.
"Dancing On My Own" To A Miracle Run (2022)
The Phillies backed into the 2022 MLB Playoffs, but their first postseason trip in over a decade made the fan base forget quickly. A 9th inning rally in the postseason opener raised some eyebrows, and the Phillies set themselves up for the triumphant return of Red October at Citizens Bank Park.
The Atlanta Braves didn’t know what hit them in an NLDS stunner, and Bryce Harper capped off the NLCS with the swing of his life against the San Diego Padres.
Only the Houston Astros stood in the way. The Phillies slugged their way to a 2-1 lead in front of a raucous crowd in Philadelphia, but the Astros responded with a combined no-hitter in Game 4 to suck the momentum out of the miracle Red October run. The series ended with another heartbreaker in a Game 6 loss in Houston.
