Pennsylvania is in for a Warm February – New Forecast
We’ve been through a roller coaster of weather in Pennsylvania this season. December didn’t feel like December at all. It was really warm, and it just didn’t feel like Christmas at all. Not that I’m complaining. I’ll stay away from the cold and ice as much as possible. Then, January brought wacky weather, with some areas of the state getting snow and high winds and other areas getting a lot of rain. Now, Pennsylvania is in for a warm February. So, just how hot will it get?
Looking at the National Weather Service Climate Prediction Center’s forecast going into mid-to-late February, our state is on target to have above-normal temperatures. They give their predictions by using three outcomes: warmer-than-normal, near-normal and colder-than-normal.
From Jan. 31 to Feb. 4, the NOAA predicts above normal temperatures for the entire state. They give us a 40% to 60% chance of above normal temps for those days. Those in the western part of the state are even in for much above normal temps, according to this model. Then, looking ahead from Feb. 3 to Feb. 16, the NOAA predicts above normal temperatures again, but this time with less certainty. They give us a 55% to 60% chance of above normal temps during this period. Finally, the official 30-day forecast for February has Pennsylvania temperatures “leaning above normal.” They have a 33% to 40% certainty here.
So, how much of a warm February will we get? Looking at Weather.com‘s forecast, from now through the end of their forecast, which is on Feb. 10, temperatures are projected to be in the 40s, with it getting to almost 50 on Feb. 9. The average for us for this time of year, according to the model, is in the 40s, so this isn’t far off base. But, if the NOAA forecast is true, these temperature predictions will likely rise. I’m certainly not mad about it. Bring on spring.
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