I Hope 2024 Phillies Don’t Flame Out In A Familiar Script
The 2024 Phillies have been one interesting ride. After their Tuesday night victory, they matched their 87 wins from the 2022 season which ended in a National League Championship, and they got to 88 the following night. With 16 games left, it’s clear this will end as one of their most successful seasons ever.
As a refresher course for Phillies fans, here are the win totals from their last NL Championship clubs;
- 2022 – 87 wins
- 2009 – 93 wins
- 2008 – 92 wins
- 1993 – 97 wins
- 1983 – 90 wins
- 1980 – 91 wins
No matter your opinion on how things have gone since their torrid start, the Phillies will finish with one of their best regular season records ever. It’s interesting to note that any season over 97 wins has NOT resulted in a trip to the World Series.
So what is scaring me a bit about the 2024 Phillies?
I see some parallels between the 2023 Eagles and this team. History will determine whether my fears were unfounded. That Eagles team roared out to an impressive 10-1 start, but fizzled out when it mattered most. The gaudy early season record caused many to believe they would eventually figure things out. They didn’t. Will the Phillies? Let’s examine;
The Phillies completed a sweep of the Dodgers on July 11th
They were 29 games above .500 at 61-32 after that series. So in exactly two months they played .500 ball. Whether that means anything or not is up for debate, but in the last two seasons, they have won a total of 5 post-season series. They played considerably better in the second half of both of those years. Much like the Eagles of 2023 your inclination might be to just look at their record and say all is well.
Every other potential playoff opponent has played better since July
Two and a half months is a pretty large sample size. Struggling and seeing injuries mount make the prospect of a long post season run potentially less likely than the last two campaigns. The Mets of 2024 eerily resemble the last two NL Championship clubs. The Phillies and the Diamondbacks both had to scrap and claw their way into the playoffs. They carried that grit and toughness into the October pressure cooker. We kept waiting for the 2023 Eagles to flip that switch and they never did. Will the Phillies? I’m not so sure.
Can you have a better record and be less likely to win?
This one is harder to answer. Having more regular season wins and even winning a division title has not proven to guarantee the Phillies success. Wheeler has been amazing as usual, but Nola remains inconsistent, Suárez is heading in the wrong direction, and Christopher Sanchez just pitches better at home. The offense struggles and has been no hit into the 5th inning 3 times in September! I’m not sure that winning say 97 games is going to convince us that things are looking good.
I’m confused
I can’t decide what I believe, and I blame this Phillies team for it. It’s been a struggle bus for months and we are hoping that injured players can return to form quickly. The Braves won those last two division titles, but that didn’t get them anything come October. Hopefully down the stretch we see more of the Phillies team that we believed were the true 2024 version.