On 2nd Thought, Give The Phillies The Bye And The 2 Seed
It was a directive that the Phillies players and coaches told us in Clearwater was of monumental importance. Despite winning both a wild card and Divisional series the previous two seasons, the team felt the 13-game path to a World Championship was one that they didn’t want to traverse again. The 2024 Phillies primary stated goal was to finally win an NL East title.
Next, they wanted to insure that they would get some down time before the Divisional series which requires securing one of the top two seeds in the National League. This is what they told us they wanted and I embraced it completely. As we get closer to them potentially achieving that goal, I might want a reset.
Major League Baseball follows the NBA down the post-season stupid street
Major League Baseball somehow manages to play 162 games in order to make teams show exactly where they belong in the hierarchy. Then, while the best teams in each league rest during the wild card series, that theory gets thrown in the dumpster. Instead of having the top seed host the team with the worst record remaining, they use an antiquated bracket system like they are trying to recreate the NCAA Basketball Tournament.
Being the best over 162 doesn’t guarantee you an easier Divisional Series opponent. The top seed faces the winner of the 4 vs 5 seed wildcard series. The 4 seed is the best 2nd place club and the 5 seed is the second best record remaining. The 2 seed enjoys the bye week but faces off against the 3 seed which is the divisional winner with the worst record and the third best wildcard team. Could that be a better option?
Beware The Padres
It took until after the All-Star break for the Padres to dig out of an early season hole. From the time they got their record to 50-50 in July it has been a rocket ship rise to the top of the wildcard standings. In fact, they still could grab the Western Division title. They have gone 36-15 since reaching that .500 mark. They have been the second-best team in the NL to the Mets since that point.
A hot team can be a dangerous team. The Phillies were the 4-seed last year and knocked off the 5-seed Marlins. The 6-seed Diamondbacks who had the worst record upset the 3-seed Brewers in the wildcard series. Instead of the top-seed Braves getting to face an 83-win Arizona team, they got the 90-win Phillies. The 2 seed Dodgers got to play the easier opponent.
The 6 seed has been the NL Champions two seasons in a row
It has proven to be a difficult team to navigate in the NL Playoffs and this year it is trending towards the Mets or Braves being that team. Could they beat the 3 seed in a road wild card series? Absolutely! The Phillies played the oft-injured Braves to a 6-7 mark this season while they lead the Mets 6-3 before playing a 4-game set this weekend. I think I’d take the familiarity and lesser opponent this time around.
Get ready for The Phillies to pop the corks…and rest?
The Phillies should celebrate a long-sought-after NL East Championship later this week. Then the next task will be to secure one of the bye spots in the upcoming playoffs. If that is secured, would it be better to rest up some players before October action or to do everything it takes to make sure that every Game One is played at Citizens Bank Park?
The last two years have shown that even the magic of CBP wears off at some point. Think of the World Series in 2022 and the performances they laid out in Games 4 and 5. Then in 2023 the dud efforts that team dialed up in Games 6 and 7? This team might just need that mental refresh.
What do you think?
I would love to hear from you Phillies fans at [email protected]
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97.5 The Fanatic Phillies Notebook: Concerns About Ranger Suarez
Let's Start With The Injuries (COUGH, COUGH)
The best record in baseball and home field advantage at Citizens Bank Park looks in reach. However, the Phillies must look to get healthy before entering Red October.
Their list of nicks and bruises keeps growing. Rob Thomson provided some injury updates on Wednesday, but the Phillies still have a shorthanded lineup with some AAA regulars.
- Catcher- J.T. Realmuto should return Friday after a week’s absence recovering from a foul ball off his knee in Miami. Rafael Marchan is back in AAA, but his previous injury forced Aramis Garcia to the majors to split time with Garrett Stubbs during Realmuto’s recovery.
- Third Base- Alec Bohm remains on the IL with a left hand strain. He is progressing, but he probably won’t come off the IL when he’s eligible on Sept. 13. Edmundo Sosa could return on Sept. 17, but the Phillies have used Weston Wilson and Kody Clemens at the hot corner temporarily. Wilson has provided some pop off the bench this season, but he hasn’t shown great defensive versatility at third base.
- Austin Hays remains sidelined with a kidney infection. He’ll need to work on physical conditioning, and he’ll miss more time than most of his injured teammates.
- Kyle Schwarber will return on Friday. His absence on Wednesday was precautionary.
Concerns About Ranger Suarez
The Phillies haven’t seen Ranger Suarez in peak form since the first half of the season. The Venezuelan lefty stormed out of the gates in 2024. He appeared to have emerged as a serious Cy Young candidate at the midway point.
Fast forward. The velocity on his four-seam fastball dipped into the 87-88 mile per hour range on September 5 in Miami. Suarez found an uptick in his last start, but he still allowed a career worst 12 hits to an underwhelming Tampa Bay lineup in 5 ⅓ innings on Tuesday.
“The velo was up a little bit from last time, but the command wasn’t as good and he didn’t have his best change-up. He sort of became one-dimensional. When he’s just fastball, curveball and he’s not commanding his pitches as well as he normally does, he can get in some trouble.” -Rob Thomson
Retrace the steps to see how he ended up here. Suarez skipped the MLB All-Star Game and rested significantly between starts on July 12 and July 22. He then took a trip to the IL on July 27.
Rob Thomson initially said he expected his breakout stud to return for the Arizona Diamondbacks series from August 8-11. The absence dragged on nearly two additional weeks.
Meanwhile, Dave Dombrowski made a serious push to acquire 25-year-old starter Garrett Crochet, as reported by Jayson Stark on The Best Show Ever.
Suarez has never pitched a full season in an MLB starting rotation, which was part of the rationale for conserving his innings and extending a cautious timeline.
The aggressive push for the crown jewel of the trade market for an organization that already has long-term money tied to Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, and Cristopher Sanchez certainly didn’t indicate unwavering confidence in Ranger Suarez.
Some combination of back spasms, extra rest, fatigue, dead arm, and natural regression have limited the 29-year-old’s contributions during the second half. Will he regain his rhythm as the dominant stopper from early 2024 by Red October?
Suarez has never pitched more than 5 ⅓ innings in any of his seven career postseason starts. He’s never pitched more than 155 ⅓ innings in a single season.
The unclear explanations for his lack of rhythm with three weeks remaining in the regular season shouldn’t inspire much confidence that he’ll give the Phillies the same length as Wheeler or Nola in the playoffs.
Rob Thomson pulled Ranger Suarez in Game 1 of the NLDS in 2023 after just 3 ⅔ innings and 53 pitches. His bullpen put on a masterclass and crushed the spirits of the Atlanta Braves to set the tone for a series victory.
Don’t be surprised if Thomson maneuvers with his pitching staff similarly to utilize Suarez in shorter outings during Red October.
