Will The Phillies Re-Sign Aaron Nola? Jayson Stark Is Leaning No
The Phillies season is over. We do not get to see another World Series, there will be no parade, and baseball in Philadelphia is on pause until Spring Training. Now the next thing we have to talk about is what the Phillies will do this offseason. And the first, and probably the biggest question we need to figure out, is what to do with Aaron Nola.
Nola is set to become a free agent for the first time in his career. The Phillies signed him to a team-friendly deal before he ever finished his arbitration years. And he more than made up for his value during that time. But it was not always perfect. Yes, you had seasons where he got Cy Young votes, including one where he finished 3rd, but there were also seasons, like this last one, where his ERA ballooned over 4.
Once he got to the playoffs, he was mostly great. Nola shut down the Marlins, shut down the Braves, and at least in game 2, he shut down the Diamondbacks. And it seemed like everyone had gotten back on board with paying him after those first 3 starts. Then game 6 happened, and we saw the Nola we had been seeing all season. He was giving up solo homers and wound up being chased from the game in the 5th inning, eventually taking the loss. And now no one knows what to do with him.
Will the Phillies resign Aaron Nola? Jayson Stark joined The Best Show Ever on Wednesday and seemed to think Nola’s time in Philly was at an end.
“The first question is would they sign Aaron Nola? I think I would lean more towards no, but it’s not impossible. I don’t know a lot about the extension talks back in Spring Training, but I do know they were not close. And in a really bad free-agent market, he could get 7 years, $200 million, $220 million, even $240 million… None of that is out of the question. Because I know how other teams value him. And are the Phillies going to give him that? Obviously in the Spring, they were not thinking that way. But what they will have to consider now is if not him, then who?”
Stark has said the same thing all season long. Aaron Nola is going to get paid. As inconsistent and at times aggravating he is, the overall numbers paint the picture of one of the most reliable starters out there. He is never hurt, and always good to pitch at least 200 innings. While he has seasons with an ERA over 4, he also has many in the low 3s and even the 2s. And if you just like at his overall production, only Cole Hamels has been a better homegrown pitcher for the Phillies than Nola this century.
Teams value all of that. Some value the innings pitched more than anything else. Someone is going to give Aaron Nola a lot of money. Do the Phillies want to pay up for a guy who is so unreliable?
When he is great, he is as good as it gets. But there are far too many of those outings we saw in game 6. Nola did the same thing in his last 3 starts of the 2022 post-season. And do you want to pay someone Ace money if you can’t rely on him to be an Ace when it matters most? Maybe not, but as Stark mentioned, then the question becomes who do you replace him with? The free agent market for starters is slim pickings. A trade may be their only option, and Jayson Stark did throw out one name he could see Dave Dombrowski going after.
“If Nola is not back, does Dave trade for somebody like Corbin Burnes? You have a bunch of Ace-type starters who are a year away from Free Agency this winter. Somebody will get traded in that group. Dave is really good at going to get those guys.”