Aaron Nola Cannot Start A Wild Card Game For The Philadelphia Phillies
Aaron Nola has been a disappointment this season for the Phillies, and that might be drastically understating his struggles. In a contract year, it’s hard to imagine having a tougher time than Nola has so far in 2023, as inconsistencies have once again become the calling card of the 30-year-old hurler. Monday night, Nola took the mound against the San Francisco Giants in game 1 of a series that could be pivotal in the NL Wild Card race, and his start looked ugly early. After a tumultuous first inning, Nola actually settled in and put together a solid line of 7 innings of 2-run ball. Some people heralded him for how he battled to have a good stat line at the end of the night… I am not one of those people. To me, last night was a prime example of why Aaron Nola cannot start a Wild Card game for the Phillies.
I know that we have been begging for a 7-inning, 2-run performance from Nola for what seems like months now, and we got one last night. So, why would that say something negative? Well, it’s because of one component of the game that has been a thorn in Nola’s side all season long: the long ball. Both of the runs surrendered by him in Monday night’s contest were by way of a home run, and that’s nothing new when it comes to the Phillies’ #27. Nola has allowed 29 bombs this year, good for 3rd in all of baseball. It’s an awful mark, and one that will be amplified come playoff time, especially in a short 3 game series.
Sure, against the Giants in August you can get away with 2 homers if you battle through it, but in October? Early struggles in a game and the long ball can be a death sentence. Home runs seem to carry significantly more weight in the postseason, and Nola just can’t seem to avoid them right now. Momentum gets amplified in the heat of a Wild Card series, and homers are the ultimate momentum change in baseball. Not to mention that the Phillies currently hold the top seed in the NL Wild Card standings, meaning that they would play the entire series at Citizens Bank Park. Not exactly a pitcher’s dream. Aaron Nola is a gas can, just waiting to explode with a deep drive in the seats, and I do not want to see that be the reason this team’s season ends.
All runs count the same, but yes, to me, a pitcher who can go out and allow 2 runs on base hits is preferable in the postseason to one that gives up a bunch of home runs. In a longer series of 5 or 7 games, I still think Nola should absolutely get the ball; his upside is too good to not let him go. But in a Wild Card series where losses are deadly, Nola is still too much of a risk. The talent level is still there, somewhere deep down, but the inconsistencies and the penchant for allowing homers make him a danger early on in October. It would take a real turnaround over the next month for me to gain enough faith in Nola to hand him the ball in the first round of the playoffs.