Get Used To It Folks, This Is The Aaron Nola You Are Going To See For The Rest Of The Season
I’m not naive enough to have one outing by a pitcher sway me into how I believe they will perform for the rest of the season. Especially now for the Phillies with 68 games yet to play. But I stated Tuesday morning on the John Kincade Show that my anxiousness for that night’s start by Aaron Nola was precipitated by the fact that I believed his outing was going to be a window into what the rest of his season is going to look like.
The thought came to me because of many reasons, mostly because it was Nola’s first start after the All-Star Break so he had some days of rest behind him. I also think, as the thinking pitcher that he is, it was a good time for him to reflect on the way the first half of his season went, with a sprinkling of good outings and bad and a frustrating penchant for giving up the long ball.
Tuesday, Nola pitched into the eighth inning and wound up with the win after giving up just two earned runs, not allowing a walk while striking out six. He also did not give up a home run, a rare instance for him this season. But most importantly, Nola didn’t make the game-changing mistakes that have hindered his outings much of this season. As John Kruk pointed out, his misses- whether purposely or accidentally – weren’t left out over the plate where opposing hitters could back-foot and get set to launch a moon shot into the night.
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When he isn’t on his game, Nola is around the strike zone way too much, which means hitters can settle in, hope to guess correctly on what type of pitch their getting – curve, slider, sinker – and look to crush it because it would be in their zone. Tuesday, Nola was not only all over the strike zone but also everywhere outside of it. Nola went up and in when he had two strikes on a hitter. He threw it low and outside when he had batters confused. He was good Aaron Nola on Tuesday.
And for no rhyme or reason, I believe that is going to be the norm for the rest of this season. Nola will get around 13 more starts this season, barring injury. So here is my prediction on that: I say the Phillies will win 9 or 10 of those games. I believe Nola will have an ERA below 3.85 and will restore the faith that many of us had in him during the playoff run last season. If the Phillies hope to make the playoffs and have any success there, Nola will have to be that.
It’s not wishful thinking on my part. Sometimes in sports you just get that feeling about something. This is mine now and I’m sticking to it. We’ll see how it plays out.
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