Phillies 5th Starter Controversy: The Great Debate of 2024
Philadelphia sports fans thrive on controversy. The backup quarterback is the most popular guy in town. Eagles fans have debated Carson Wentz versus Nick Foles, Michael Vick versus Kevin Kolb, and Donovan McNabb versus pretty much anyone behind him.
The fifth starter for the Phillies doesn’t usually draw as much scrutiny. Spencer Turnbull and Taijuan Walker have changed that narrative in 2024.
Taijuan Walker
A slow ramp-up during spring training pushed Walker to the injured list to begin the 2024 season. The Phillies expected him to spend some time in AAA through the month of April regaining his velocity, but the veteran right-hander will make his final minor league start on Sunday.
“I thought my stuff was pretty sharp. Got outs, you know. I mean, I believe that in a different environment — a little more adrenaline — my stuff just plays up a little bit more.” -Taijuan Walker (via The Athletic)
The Phillies signed Walker to a lucrative four-year, $72 million contract entering the 2023 season.
He posted a 4.38 ERA in 172 ⅔ innings in his first season in Philadelphia, but he lost favor down the stretch. Walker did not make an appearance during the postseason, and he directed his frustration unwisely on social media.
While the 31-year-old didn’t finish 2023 on the best terms, he logically warrants a spot in the starting rotation with a sub-4.00 career ERA and 194 MLB starts.
What’s the problem then?
Spencer Turnbull
The Phillies signed Spencer Turnbull on a one-year deal worth $2 million on Feb. 14. They didn’t expect him to begin the season in the starting rotation, but the absence of Taijuan Walker forced the former Detroit Tiger into an expanded role.
Turnbull has sparkled in four starts. He’s allowed just three earned runs in 22 innings pitched. His hot streak reached a new level when he took a no-hitter into the seventh inning against the Chicago White Sox on Friday night.
The right-hander has mixed off-speed pitches well to complement a fastball in the low 90s. He’s posted a 1.23 ERA and a 0.77 WHIP (MLB average in 2023: 1.30).
- April 2 vs. Cincinnati Reds: 5 IP, 1 R (0 ER), 3 H, 7 K
- April 8 vs. St. Louis Cardinals: 6 IP, 0 R, 2 H, 6 K
- April 13 vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: 6 IP, 3 R, 4 H, 3 K
- April 19 vs. Chicago White Sox: 7 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 6 K
Could the hot start from Spencer Turnbull force a fifth starter controversy in Philadelphia? Rob Thomson said after Turnbull’s gem on Friday that the Phillies haven’t made a decision about what will happen when Taijuan Walker returns.
WOOOOOO!
— NBC Sports Philadelphia (@NBCSPhilly) April 20, 2024
Spencer Turnbull gets initiated by the Wet Bandits after his fantastic start 😂 pic.twitter.com/1YA5sQP0gr
The Fifth Starter Debate
As much fun as quarterback controversies are, they don’t translate to the fifth starter role in baseball. Thomson spoke during the offseason about his plan for the Phillies starting rotation in 2024.
“You’re going to need eight or nine starters over the course of the year. Most teams do, anyway. That rotation depth is really important.” -Rob Thomson
MLB starting pitchers also need to conserve their stamina over a 162-game season. Spencer Turnbull hasn’t pitched in a full-time role the past three seasons.
- 2021: 50 innings in nine starts
- 2022: Missed entire season due to injury
- 2023: 31 innings in seven starts
The promising start from Turnbull doesn’t mean he has the durability to supplant Walker and stay in the rotation the rest of the regular season. He could play a role in the bullpen as the longman. He could be a spot starter. The Phillies could even use a six-man rotation.
“We don’t know what the decision is, but again, it’s …an innings limit (for Turnbull). That’s just what it is, and I don’t know what that limit is. Usually, you go up 30 or 40 from the year before, but with our diagnostics and what they can do with the arm now, who knows? But we’re going to not put him in jeopardy.” -Rob Thomson
An Unexpected Possibility
Jayson Stark spoke on The Best Show Ever about the possibility of the Phillies taking two trips through the rotation with six starters. The schedule includes 12 games in 12 days from Turnbull’s last start until the next day off on May 2.
Walker could join the rotation and make it easy for Thomson to use the stopgap solution.
If Stark’s hypothetical scenario plays out, the Phillies would most likely send Turnbull to the bullpen as the longman beginning May 3. He likely would have made six starts and eclipsed his 2023 total of 31 innings at that point.
Stark cited the 54 million remaining reasons why the Phillies would like Taijuan Walker to rejoin the rotation.
“Taijuan is going to get time to build arm strength and show them he is the guy he was in the middle of last season.” -Jayson Stark
The Phillies have plenty of off-days throughout the month of May leading up to their trip to London to face the New York Mets on June 8 and 9.
If they suffer injuries to any starting pitchers during that time span, Thomson’s estimation of using eight or nine starters then starts to look more accurate. MLB teams don’t usually stay fully healthy for long periods of the season.
It’s conceivable that Turnbull spends a few weeks in the bullpen and moves right back into the rotation because of other circumstances.
Both pitchers will have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves in the meantime. Sports radio hosts will also have plenty of opportunities to debate who deserves that fifth starter role for the rest of the season.