Can We Trust Joel Embiid To Stay Healthy In The NBA Playoffs?

Earlier today on Kincade And Salciunas, an important question was asked: can we trust Joel Embiid to stay healthy as the Philadelphia 76ers draw closer to the NBA playoffs? The reigning MVP’s injury history would show you that this is a fair question. As you can see in the above clip, John Kincade poses the question as a result of Joel Embiid being listed as “questionable” for today’s game. It does seem understandable, though, as Andrew Salciunas points out, that considering Embiid has missed substantial time as he recovered from knee surgery, that he would not be assured of playing in consecutive games.

This is not the only debate surrounding the Sixers’ big man, though. As the conversation continues, the guys begin to debate what level Embiid needs to be functioning at in order for the Sixers to have a chance. In fact, I believe the Sixers are actually closer than both John and Andrew are giving them credit for. Joel Embiid has rarely, if ever, been fully healthy in the postseason, and yet, this year he seems to be fresh, even if a little out of game shape. Cardio will come, though, and with extended time off before his return to play earlier this week, this could be just what the doctor ordered in order to give the Sixers the best chance at keeping Embiid healthy throughout the postseason.

It's a tall task, and maybe an unfair one to ask the organization for considering Embiid’s injury history, but it’s the only way the Sixers will be able to compete. They don’t just need Joel Embiid to be healthy; they need Joel Embiid to be healthy AND playing at the highest level he’s ever played at this time of year. If things break the Sixers’ way, they just might get both.

Joel Embiid is back. After 3 LONG months without the reigning MVP, Embiid is set to make his return this week. Woj reported early Monday morning that the Sixers expected him back at some point this week.

Boy do the Sixers need him. They were the 3 seed in the Eastern Conference when he injured his meniscus. Now they are the 8 seed. If the season ended today, they would be in the Play-In Tournament. With him, they had the 2nd best record in the league, 26-8. Without him, they are 14-27, the 8th-worst record in the league.

No Joel Embiid has meant teams can key in on Tyrese Maxey. Maxey has done his best, but he alone is just not enough, and the guys behind him haven't all carried their weight. Tobias Harris in particular has failed to live up to the moment, and Buddy Hield has struggled to adapt to his new team.

Looking at how well Embiid played when healthy, the struggles make sense. Embiid averaged over a point per minute. Wilt Chamberlain is the only player in NBA history to do that over a full season. 35.3 points per game, despite averaging 34 minutes per game. He dropped 70 on Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs. That type of production is hard to replace.

In just 34 games, he had 9 40-point games. Many of them despite barely playing in the 4th quarter because the Sixers got out to such a massive lead. He was having a truly special season, that was derailed by the unfortunate injury.

But with him finally making his return, let's relive some of his greatness from earlier in the season. From dropping 48 on the Wizard in early November to his 70-point masterpiece in late January. We kept track of all 9 of his 40-point games, so that we can remember how great he was playing before the injury.

His first 40-point game this season came in early November. The Wizards came to Philly, and Embiid bullied them all game long. He played so well, he needed only 31 minutes to score 48 points. 29 came in the 3rd quarter. Which is a franchise record for the most points in a single quarter. He also had 11 rebounds, 6 assists, and only 1 turnover in that game. The Wizards are not exactly an intimidating opponent. But they have played 42 games this season, and not many other plays have dropped 48 on them in 31 minutes.

Exactly one month later, Embiid went off against the same team. But this time he didn't just break 50, he got to 50 points in the game. Not to mention he also racked up 13 rebounds, 7 assists, and shot 65.5% from the field. 11 of those points came in the last 5 minutes of what was a close game. It was 113-106 when Embiid scored the first of those 11 points. And for you haters that want to talk about Free Throws, he would have scored 39 in this game even if you took away every FT.

A week later, he did it again. This time dropping 21 on the Pistons. And like in that first Wizards game, he needed only 31 minutes to do it. He also had 11 rebounds, 6 assists, 2 steals, and only 2 turnovers.

What is more impressive than scoring 40 in 31 minutes? Doing it in 30 minutes. The Sixers destroyed the Hornets that night, like most teams do. The final score was 135-82 and Embiid never saw the floor in the 4th quarter. He shot 78.3% from the field. And while the Hornets are not exactly a tough team, only 4 other players, Karl Anthony Towns,  Tyrese Haliburton, Paul George, and Jayson Tatum, have scored like this on them this season. And all of them needed at least 38 minutes to reach 40. Though Towns actually wound up scoring 62.

The very next game, Embiid did it again, scoring 40 in 37 minutes. But this time it was in a loss. Maxey scored 29 in the game, but the rest of the team combined managed just 35 combined points. The Sixers had just 38 combined FGs in that game, and Embiid either scored or assisted on 21 of them. He also had 14 rebounds. It was not a great night for the Sixers, who lost 108-104. But it was still a very good game for Embiid.

Okay, for those first 5 games, you could argue it was not exactly tough competition. You can't argue that on this night. The Timberwolves have the best defensive rating in the NBA. Rudy Gobert has the 4th best individual rating as a defender. Embiid still dropped 51 on them. He shot 68% from the field on 25 FG attempts. When Embiid also does it against great teams, the cupcake schedule argument kind of falls apart.

Embiid suffered an injury not too long after the Timberwolves game and missed the end of December. And for 2 games after getting back, he only scored 30 points per game and then got hurt again. But in his first game back after that second injury on 1/15, he scored 41 on the Rockets. Once again it took him only 31 minutes, and he sat out in the 4th quarter. Not bad for a guy who had played just 4 games in 24 days before this game.

Okay, so Embiid misses that game, comes back, and has to immediately play a back-to-back. He drops 41 in game 1, and then comes back out the next night and drops another 41. Only this time it was against the reigning champs and the player he has been battling with for the title of Best Player in the league for years now (Nikola Jokic). This is yet another example of how the "soft schedule" narrative is nonsense. Embiid also had 7 rebounds and 10 assists in the game. All on the way to lifting the Sixers to an impressive 126-121 victory over the Nuggets.

Which brings us to the 70-point game. Embiid needed just 37 minutes to score 70. The fewest minutes needed in NBA history to score 70 in a game, and 1 of only 2 players to score 70 despite playing fewer than 40 minutes. And he did it without shooting 3s. Only one of his FGs came from behind the arc. He shot  58.5 from the field. It was a special night, and one of the best performances we have ever seen in Sixers' history. It broke the record Wilt had held previously.