Will the Eagles Retain Free Agent D’Andre Swift?

D’Andre Swift will now become an unrestricted free agent after shattering his career high in rushing yards in 2023. Howie Roseman and the Philadelphia Eagles haven’t valued running backs in recent seasons. However, the free agent market plays into their hands about as well as possible. Rumors have the the Eagles as a potential landing spot for Saquon Barkley. The speculation is more like a pipe dream.

Will the Eagles retain the most dynamic running back on the roster, or will the market pry Swift away from his hometown?

Adam Schefter made a bold statement during his weekly appearance on The John Kincade Show proclaiming  “the deepest free agent running back class that we’ve ever seen.” 

Saquon Barkley, Josh Jacobs, Derrick Henry, Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Tony Pollard, and Swift highlight the star-studded list. Schefter believes that the incredible supply outweighs the demand in a modern NFL landscape that devalues the running back position.

He estimated that the top backs he mentioned could command about $10 million in average annual value (AAV). Teams looking to sign a running back probably won’t meet the price of big name free agent backs.

Swift carried 239 times for 1083 yards in 17 regular-season and playoff games in 2023. The impressive statistical output might look like a solid credential to earn him a payday from the Eagles. He is contrarily less attractive to the Eagles with additional tread to his tires, however, nearly doubling his previous career high of 121 carries.

The 25-year-old didn’t impact the passing game heavily after chatter spread during training camp about the hopeful new element to the Philadelphia offense. He finished with 214 receiving yards, the lowest output of his four NFL seasons. He averaged 7.2 yards per reception in three seasons with the Detroit Lions, but the number dropped to 5.5 in 2023.

The influence of new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore could change that if Swift returns in 2024, but Jalen Hurts never developed a rhythm with Swift out of the backfield. The prospective opportunity probably won’t play a major factor in Philadelphia’s offseason decisions at running back.

Swift’s calculated market value, according to Spotrac, is about $6.7 million in AAV. He would likely ask for at least two or three years on a new deal. Roseman is one of many NFL GMs shying away from paying running backs. He showed little hesitation to let Miles Sanders walk away after an excellent statistical output in the final season of his rookie contract in 2022.

Chip Kelly spent big money on Ryan Mathews and DeMarco Murray in 2015. The two signings never paid off for the Eagles. Howie Roseman then signed LeGarrette Blount, who earned $1.25 million in his only season with the Eagles in 2017. He acquired Jay Ajayi, who earned about $2.5 million total in two stints in Philadelphia.

The acquisition of Swift at the 2023 NFL Draft mirrored Roseman’s move to acquire Jordan Howard in 2019. Both running backs were entering the final season of their rookie contracts. Howard cost about $2.03 million in 2019, and Swift cost about $2.17 million in 2023.

The Eagles are extremely unlikely to sign D’Andre Swift as a free agent for $6.7 million on a multi-year deal.

Schefter spoke about potential factors that could contribute to Swift returning to his hometown. 

The overwhelming supply of running backs could drive prices down at an even more extreme level than past free agent markets. Could Howie Roseman play the waiting game and allow Swift to figure that out on his own? Schefter summarized the mentality of some NFL free agents. 

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The strategy has helped the Eagles gather great value in the later waves of free agency, especially two years ago with James Bradberry’s initial one-year contract for the 2022 season. If Swift stays in Philadelphia, it’s likely that the deal isn’t done until June or later.

The scenario is still unlikely. The projected $6.7 million number might have to dwindle down about 50%. Roseman and the Eagles are extremely confident in the positional priorities that have worked for them in the past. They’re much more likely to pursue a low-cost trade like they did for Howard and Swift or sign another veteran on a short-term contract with a lower AAV.

The Philadelphia Eagles have seen their fair share of 1st-round picks who turned out to be busts. The fan base has certainly called out Howie Roseman, Andy Reid, and other decision-makers for their shortcomings during their tenures in the front office.

The NFL Draft is wild, random, and predictably unpredictable. The best NFL organizations have their fair share of misses. They also make up for it with solid draft strategies, positional priorities, and careful selection of players they believe can translate their skills to the next level.

One of the best coaches in the history of the NFL controlled personnel decisions for the Eagles for most of his 14 seasons in Philadelphia. The first draft choice of his tenure established the foundation for his long-term success.

Ricky Williams, Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Daunte Culpepper, or Cade McNown would’ve altered Eagles history for the worse if Donovan McNabb never came to Philadelphia in 1999.

Later first-round decisions didn't turn out as well for Andy Reid. Loudmouth Freddie Mitchell and an infamous firefighter handcuffed his ability to climb the mountain and win the first Super Bowl in franchise history.

Reid’s protegee Howie Roseman has shouldered intense criticism for past questionable draft-day decisions. He’s also made up for misses with steals like Jordan Mailata and value picks like Jalen Mills and Avonte Maddox.

More recent picks like DeVonta Smith and Jalen Carter have a great chance to cement Roseman's legacy. However, the list of 19 picks only includes the track record of players drafted by 2020.

The Eagles have made 1st-round picks based on their positional priority for the franchise quarterback and offensive and defensive linemen. There are hits and misses. Every decision will meet inevitable scrutiny of the highest magnitude from the most passionate fan base in professional sports.

However, the Eagles have advanced to seven NFC Championship Games and three Super Bowls since Jeffrey Lurie hired Reid. The effects of the decision have made the Eagles one of the most successful organizations in the NFL since 1999. 

The pick was a head-scratcher from the start. Andy Reid convinced himself that a 26-year-old with more experience as a firefighter than as a football player was worthy of the 23rd-overall pick. Danny Watkins never showed the passion for football that almost all NFL players have.

His mind was more likely on his passion as a fireman. The 2011 draft class ironically played out well for the Eagles. They selected Watkins, Jaiquawn Jarrett, Curtis Marsh, and Casey Matthews with their first four picks. If they had picked sixth-rounder Jason Kelce with their first-round pick and Watkins in the sixth, you would never hear criticism of the front office for their decisions.

The Eagles entered the 2014 NFL Draft without a good enough plan. They didn’t “Do The Deal” to move up and select Marcus Mariota. When Ha Ha Clinton-Dix came off the board at 21, the Eagles traded back from the 22nd spot to 26. They selected a player nowhere to be found on most first-round draft boards.

Marcus Smith barely got on the field for the Eagles. He finished his third and final season in Philadelphia with just four career sacks.

Justin Jefferson helped determine the perception of Jalen Reagor. The Eagles didn’t see Jefferson as a fit despite an outstanding college career at LSU. They took a Big 12 wide receiver whose supposed speed never truly showed itself at the NFL Combine or during his two seasons in Philadelphia.

Reagor made more blunders than dynamic plays. His attitude toward the fans and media became an issue, and Howie Roseman dealt him to the Minnesota Vikings before the 2022 season for minimal draft compensation.

Andy Reid aggressively pursued Jerome McDougle in the 2003 NFL Draft. A trade from the 30th-overall spot to the 16th got everyone excited for a star pass rusher.

McDougle couldn’t stay on the field. He was involved in an unfortunate incident involving a shooting, and he ultimately played just 37 games in four NFL seasons, three with the Eagles.

When Jason Peters and Lane Johnson looked like they were on the downside of their careers, the Eagles selected Andre Dillard in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. The highly-touted prospect out of Washington St. didn’t develop with the Eagles. He battled injuries, and there were questions about whether his heart was truly focused on football.

Jordan Mailata quickly overtook him on the depth chart. Dillard became just a backup by the end of his tenure in 2022.

The Eagles had the pick of the litter in what turned out to be one of the strongest wide receiver drafts in NFL history. Reggie Wayne, Chad Johnson, and Steve Smith were on the board, but they chose Freddie Mitchell with the 25th-overall pick.

“Fred Ex” had a colorful (if nothing else) personality off the field, but he never produced like a starting-caliber wide receiver. He never caught more than 35 passes in any of his four NFL seasons.

At least fans have the "fourth-and-26 game" to remember.

Derek Barnett broke the sack record previously held by Reggie White at the University of Tennessee. The badge of honor got fans excited after the Eagles picked him in the first round of the 2017 NFL Draft in Philadelphia.

Things started well when Barnett was a rotational contributor for the best positional unit on the 2017 Eagles. He even recovered the game-changing fumble in the fourth quarter of Super Bowl LII.

However, Barnett slipped consistently after earning a Super Bowl ring in his rookie season. He battled injuries and a lack of production in the following seasons. Ultimately, his undisciplined play ruined any chance had to become a reliable full-time pass rusher.

The talk leading up to the 2006 NFL Draft was about how the Eagles would have to trade up in the first round to sure up their defensive front with Brodrick Bunkley. The defensive tackle slipped to the 14th-overall spot, but he didn’t turn into the star the Eagles hoped for. He was a serviceable player for five seasons in Philadelphia.

Nelson Agholor doesn’t have the most outstanding legacy in Philadelphia. His infamous blunders are hard for Eagles fans to forget. He struggled through two cringeworthy seasons after the Eagles selected him in 2015.

Fans should also consider that he put that terrible stretch behind him for a career season as a legitimate gamebreaker in 2017 who factored into some of the most impactful plays of the season. Agholor earned his Super Bowl ring regardless of the fallout afterwards.

When a team consistently finishes at the top of the NFL, they won’t have the best opportunity to draft premium players. However, the Eagles found good value at the 31st-overall spot in 2005 after a Super Bowl appearance. Mike Patterson was a reliable defensive tackle for eight seasons in Philadelphia.

Fans would’ve had a much different reaction to issues off the field if Shawn Andrews struggled with his mental health in modern times. At the height of his NFL career, he showed the outstanding skill set the Eagles saw before they drafted him with the 16th-overall pick in 2004.

Andy Reid didn’t place a premium on wide receivers during most of his tenure with the Eagles. He finally provided Donovan McNabb with some sustainable firepower when he drafted DeSean Jackson in the second round in 2008 and Jeremy Maclin in 2009.

Maclin caught 343 balls for 4771 yards in five seasons with the Eagles. He was part of one of the most explosive offenses Eagles fans have ever seen with Michael Vick at quarterback in 2010.

Troy Vincent and Bobby Taylor formed one of the best cornerback tandems in the NFL in the early 2000s. Future Hall of Fame safety Brian Dawkins was the team leader and the anchor of an outstanding secondary. However, the Eagles spent their first three picks in 2002 on defensive backs.

Sheppard played a backup role for two seasons, but he made the unorthodox strategy look genius when he stepped in with a first-team All-Pro effort in 2004. He intercepted 18 balls in 93 career games with the Eagles.

Things didn’t end well. Carson Wentz failed to take accountability for a brutal 2020 season, and he forced his way out of Philadelphia. It doesn’t erase his role in leading the Eagles to a 12-2 record to begin 2017. Nick Foles closed a season started by Carson Wentz.

Wentz had extreme highs and lows in five seasons in Philadelphia. However, the Eagles still made the right move jumping to the second-overall spot in the 2016 NFL Draft to find their franchise quarterback.

The Eagles selected Corey Simon out of Florida St. with the sixth-overall pick in 2000. He quickly became a constant in the middle of a defensive line that proved itself as a team strength under defensive coordinator Jim Johnson.

Simon started 78 games in five seasons in Philadelphia, and he earned a Pro Bowl nod after the 2003 season.

Fans will always remember the strip sack of Tom Brady in Super Bowl LII as the highlight of Brandon Graham’s career with the Eagles. However, they might not focus as much on his struggle to gain footing in the NFL at the beginning of his career. Graham had to work his way up from a rotational position to a primary role.

First, he ignored criticism about how the Eagles should’ve taken Jason Pierre-Paul with the 13th-overall pick. He overcame his former division rival only to hear about his shortcomings compared to Earl Thomas in the “Legion of Boom” era. He’s overtaken both of them in his climb up the leaderboards in many major defensive categories in franchise history.

The Eagles selected Fletcher Cox with the 12th-overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft. He has one of the strongest overall track records of any first-round pick in a class that included Luke Kuechly and Stephon Gilmore.

Cox might not gotten the same level of celebration as Eagles fan favorites like Brian Dawkins or Jason Kelce. However, he was the best player at his position on the Super Bowl LII roster.

The first five picks of the 2013 NFL Draft were linemen. Lane Johnson has significantly outperformed a group that included two other offensive tackles. The 6-foot-6 mountain has earned four Pro Bowl nods, but the Eagles might actually know more about his value based on a brutal record when he’s been out of the lineup.

Johnson was one of the anchors of a powerful offensive line that helped push the Eagles to a victory in Super Bowl LII.

Quarterbacks have exponentially more value than any other position in the NFL. Andy Reid began his tenure with Donovan McNabb as his franchise quarterback. The second-overall pick broke into the league as an exhilarating dual threat who played a part in the evolution of the NFL into a new era of running quarterbacks.

McNabb earned six Pro Bowl selections with the Eagles. He played in five NFC Championship Games and Super Bowl XXXIX during a sustained period of success in the top tier of NFL quarterbacks.

His shortcomings might cloud the memories of some fans, but they don’t define his career as the foundation of the Andy Reid era.