The Blueprint Seems Fail Proof, Eagles Just Need To Make Right Picks

Author Bob Cooney

April 27th, 2023 9:59 AM

It’s understandable that the horrors of draft days past still haunt Eagles fans. One of the most talked about non-sporting sports events takes place tonight as the NFL draft will kick off with round 1. Ghosts of recent first-round failures such as Jalen Reagor, Andre Dillard, Derreck Barnett, Marcus Smith, Danny Watkins, and so on and so forth. But while those thoughts can be overriding others, try not to forget that the opening round of the draft has also brought the team Fletcher Cox and Lane Johnson and DeVonta Smith and, well, OK, maybe more bad than good. 

So that brings us to Thursday night. A year after participating in the title game, the Eagles have not one but two attempts in the first round to improve a team that posted 14 wins a season ago and two playoff wins before falling to Kansas City in the Super Bowl. 

At picks 10 and 30, which many believe may change via trades, I’m here to make a proclamation that the Eagles and Howie Roseman can do no wrong tonight. That’s right. My feeling is that no matter what kind of moves Roseman decides to make and where the team winds up choosing one or two players on draft opening night, it would be really difficult for Howie and company to screw this one up. 

…

There are a few reasons for my gushiness. Much of it has to do with the team that is already assembled. Yes, the defense has some holes to fill, but that. besides the money hocus pocus, is a strength of Roseman. Whether it be a late signing of a vet to fill a spot, a trade, or whatever. The confidence is there it will be done. And with this offense, still fully equipped the way it was a season ago, sans Miles Sanders, and perhaps adding other pieces tonight, outscoring teams just may be the best part of their defense. 

Trade up for a Jalen Carter? Not sure many would have a problem with that, in spite of the off-field red flags. He’s still rated the top player overall in this draft by many. Stay at 10 and take best available? Sure, hard to argue that’s a bad move. Move back from 10, pick up some assets, and maybe take that Bijan guy that has been all the talk? This may be the best-case scenario. 

Short of just taking someone that completely fails at the NFL level, the blueprint of what Howie does seems to be just about fail proof. 

We Simulated the Eagles Draft 1000 Times, Here are the Results

• ESPN- Pick 10

  ESPN debuted its draft tool this year. You can find it here. Let’s see who it has the Eagles taking. Starting with Pick 10.

  Player	Times Picked
  Peter Skoronski- OT- Northwestern	86
  Nolan Smith- Edge- Georgia	44
  Jalen Carter- DT- Georgia	36
  Lukas Van Ness- Edge- Iowa	34
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba- WR- Ohio State	33
  Christian Gonzalez- CB- Oregon	33
  Paris Johnson- OT- Ohio State	23
  Joey Porter Jr- CB- Penn State	20
  Bijan Robinson- RB- Texas	13
  Trenton Simpson- LB- Clemson	6
  Darnell Wright- OT- Tennesee	5

  Well, they certainly know who Howie Roseman is. The top 4 most selected players are all Linemen. With Peter Skoronski coming up most often. The Eagles do not have an immediate need at Tackle. But that has never stopped Howie from drafting an Offensive Lineman in the past. He has a draft philosophy that does not deter him from using a pick on someone even if they won’t play right away. He values future returns far more than he does immediate value. And Skoronski could always play RG for a couple of years.

  Just behind him are Georgia teammates Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter. Who could both satisfy future and present needs. The Eagles D Line is not a dire need, but you could never have too many DTs or edge rushers. Lukas Van Ness, the 4th most drafted player by ESPN for the Eagles, would also fit that bill.

  Some more notable results:

  • The breakdown by position is 114 defensive linemen, 114 Offensive Linemen, 53 Corners, 33 Wrs, 13 RBs, and 6 LBS
  • The talk when it comes to the Eagles going with a skill position, has mostly centered around taking Bijan Robinson at 10. But Jaxon Smith-Njigba coming up 33 times is interesting. With AJ Brown, Devonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, and now Olamide Zaccheaus, there is not much of a need for another pass catcher. Though the thought of adding another elite WR to the room is certainly tempting, it is not likely or practical.
  • An LB in the first round? At pick 10 no less? Maybe I spoke too soon, ESPN doesn’t know Howie at all.

• ESPN- Pick 30

  Now let’s look at who ESPN has the Eagles picking at 30.

  Player	Times Picked
  Adetomiwa Adebawore-DT- Northwestern	61
  Felix Anudike -Edge- Kansas State	47
  Jahmyr Gibbs- RB- Alabama	31
  Anton Harrison- OT- Oklahoma	30
  Emmanuel Forbes-CB-  Mississippi State	24
  Will McDonald- Edge- Iowa State	22
  Jordan Addison- WR- USC	22
  Keion White- EDGE- Old Dominion	21
  Michael Mayer- TE- Notre Dame	13
  Deonte Banks- CB- Maryland	11
  Quentin Johnston- WR- TCU	9
  Bryan Bresee- DT- Clemson	8
  Mazi Smith- DT- Michigan	7
  Brian Branch- S- Alabama	7
  Zay Flowers- WR- Boston College	6
  Trenton Simpson- LB- Clemson	6
  Kelee Ringo- CB- Georgia	5
  Darnell Washington- TE- Georgia	3

  Pick 30 on all 3 draft sites saw a much wider range of players, some making more sense than others. The common belief is that they will trade out of this pick. But that doesn’t matter all that much to this simulation because all of these players could be there in the 2nd round where they traded back to anyway.

  Adetomiwa Adebawore is a name suddenly being attached to the Eagles a lot. Tony Pauline from The Pro Football Network reported the Eagles are in love with him. The same guy reported the Eagles loved Cam Jurgens last year, and we saw that pan out to be true. So he is definitely a name to watch for.

  More notable results from pick 30:

  • The positional breakdown is 166 Defensive Linemen, 40 Corners, 37 WRS, 31 RBs, 30 Offensive Linemen, 16 TEs, 7 Safeties, and 6 LBs.
  • No clue why they have the Eagles taking Tight Ends at pick 30. Lots of national draft guys have done that too. Notice none of the local guys have done that though. Almost like it makes no sense. And people around the team know that.
  • Again with the LBs in the first round. Eagles fans certainly wouldn’t mind it. But it is not going to happen. Every year there are draft experts who mock guys like Patrick Queen, or Devin Lloyd, etc to the Eagles, but every year it doesn’t happen. Maybe if they trade back into the 2nd round, but we have seen Howie values other positions much more.
  • ESPN by far had the most different players selected at 30. 18 different guys. The next highest was 14.

• Pro Football Network- Pick 10

  Pro Football Network was the one site I used that predicted trades even when the pick is simulated. It did not have the Eagles trading up much from 10. But it did have them trade up from 30, and down a decent amount from 10. I didn’t keep full track of everything they got from those trade-downs, or even exactly how often it happened. But there were a few very interesting trades that I did note that we will get to later. But for now, let’s just look at the poor results of who they picked at pick 10, or with whatever pick they traded down to with it.

  Player	Pick 10
  Jalen Carter- DT- Georgia	156
  Devon Witherspoon- CB- Illinois	58
  Brian Branch- S- Alabama	26
  Cam Smith- CB- South Carolina	18
  Tyree Wilson- Edge- Texas Tech	16
  Joey Porter Jr- CB- Penn State	14
  Christian Gonzalez- CB- Oregon	14
  Will Anderson Jr- Edge- Alabama	13
  Bijan Robinson- RB- Texas	12
  Myle Murphy- DT- Clemson	7

  PFN really liked picking Jalen Carter for the Eagles. They mocked him to them at Pick 10 nearly 100 times more than any other player. He made up 46.7 % of the picks at 10 in the 334 simulations with the PFN tool. Last year, even though Jordan Davis was the most often picked player, he made up only 25% of the selections for the Eagles’ first pick.

  Other notes from these results

  • Defensive Linemen were selected 192 times, CBs 104 times, and the only positions picked were Brian Branch at Safety (26 times), and Bijan Robinson at RB (12 times).
  • There were zero Offensive Linemen, or Wide Receivers, even though those positions were both popular picks on the other sites for the Eagles.
  • Also no linebackers at 10, so Kudos to PFN for knowing that the Eagles would never select a LB in the first round.
  • Will Anderson falling to them at 10 feels very unlikely, but it sure would be nice if he did.
  • As I said, I didn’t keep track of everything they traded for when they did trade down or up. But I will say on average 19 was the farthest they ever traded down to. The Bucs traded up with them a decent amount of times. And often that, for some reason, resulted in the Eagles bringing back Mike Evans along with other picks. That part seems very unlikely. But the idea of the Bucs trading up for a QB at 10, makes sense.
  • There was a time they traded down to 19 with the Bucs, got Mike Evans, then traded down again with the Raiders, and got Josh Jacobs. I did not count that draft in the results. Just seemed way too absurd, and since they traded out of the first round with pick 10, it would have thrown off the results. But felt worth mentioning at least as a weird result.

  • Despite Peter Skoronski being the most drafted player at 10 by both other websites, PFN selected him zero times for the Eagles.

• Pro Football Network- Pick 30

  Now let’s see who PFN had them picking at 30, or wherever it had them trade up to.

  Player	Pick 30
  Nolan Smith- Edge- Georgia	73
  Will McDonald- Edge- Iowa State	65
  BJ Ojulari- Edge- LSU	39
  Bryan Bresee- DT- Clemson	30
  Trenton Simpson- LB- Clemson	30
  Cam Smith- CB- South Carolina	20
  Isaiah Foskey- Edge- Notre Dame	19
  Joey Porter Jr- CB- Penn State	16
  Calijah Kancey- Edge- Pitt	16
  Kalee Ringo- CB- Georgia	16
  Lukas Van Ness- Edge- Iowa	7
  Zay Flowers- WR- Boston College	3

  Apart from it being an edge rusher, PFN was far less consistent about what player the Eagles will take at 30. Nolan Smith led the way with 73 selections. But of the 12 players who got picked at least once, 6 were edge rushers. And all of them, except for Zay Flowers who came up just 3 times, are defensive players.

  Most mock drafts have Nolan Smith going way before the Eagles are on the clock again. In fact, I can’t find any recent mock drafts that have him available when the Eagles pick at 30. A number of those occasions came from the Eagles trading up from pick 30, into the higher 20s range. Still, it seems unlikely they can land Nolan Smith unless they do so with their first pick. The same goes for Lukas Van Ness and Joey Porter Jr.

  More notes on Pick 30

  • 219 of the 333 selections were edge rushers. Which makes a ton of sense given the need there, and how much Howie values pass rushers.
  • Cornerback was the next most common selection with 62. DT and LB were tied at 30, and WR at 3.
  • No Safties or RBs. Which fair enough. Apart from LB, those seem like the least likely positions Howie would ever spend a 1st on. Maybe at 30? And trading down into the second and taking a Safety or RB is definitely on the table. But Howie doesn’t spend firsts on LBs, Safeties, or RBs.
  • A Georgia player led at both Pick 10 and 30. It’s fun imagining a line with Davis, Carter, Smith, with Nakobe Dean lined up behind them at LB. Kelee Ringo also showed up a bit at pick 30. Could the Eagles continue to become Georgia North?

• Pro Football Focus- Pick 10

  I am just going to get this out of the way now. The Pro Football Focus results were weird. Apparently, the Eagles have a huge need at WR. Because PFF was obsessed with picking WRS, even picking two on a few occasions. Let’s see what the results were at 10.

  Player	Pick 10
  Peter Skoronski- OT- Northwestern	71
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba- WR- Ohio State	59
  Calijah Kancey- EDGE- Pitt	56
  Christian Gonzalez- CB- Oregon	42
  Quentin Johnston- WR- TCU	39
  Tyree Wilson- Edge- Texas Tech	34
  Devon Witherspoon- CB- Illinois	21
  Lukas Van Ness- Edge- Iowa	11

  The first thing that stood out to me is how few players it ever selected. ESPN split 333 selections across 11 guys. PFN 333 across 10 guys. PFF meanwhile, just 8 total guys ever selected at pick 10. And 3 of those 8 guys have never been connected to the Eagles.

  As already said, Jaxon Smith-Njigba would certainly be an exciting name, but not one that makes a ton of sense for the Eagles. The same goes for Quentin Johnston, with the added detraction of being a TCU WR. We know Eagles fans aren’t big fans of them. Calijah Kancey feels like a reach at 10, with him mostly going in the high teens. And while Tyree Wilson falling to 10 would be amazing, it seems unlikely.

  But as for the picks that do make some sense, Peter Skoronski once again came in as the most often selected player. Meaning he was the number 1 selected player on two of the 3 mock draft tools. Like WR, OL is not an immediate need. But Howie has never shied away from drafting an O-Linemen to stash for a year. And Peter Skoronski could play right away at RG and would give Cam Jurgens competition. Are there better uses of pick 10? Sure. But taking an Offensive Lineman at 10 is not something anyone should rule out.

  A few more takeaways

  • The breakdown by position was 101 Edge Rushers, 98 WRs, 71 O-Linemen, and 63 CBs.
  • PFF was the only mock draft tool to mock Quentin Johnson to them, or Calijah Kancey at pick 10 to them.
  • 98 WRs is by far the most any mock draft tool has the Eagles taking at WR at 10
  • PFF selected Jalen Carter 0 times. The only of the 3 sites to never select the Georgia DT. They also never selected Joey Porter Jr or Bijan Robinson at 10.

• Pro Football Focus- Pick 30

  Now let’s see what they had the Eagles doing at Pick 30…

  Player	Times Selected
  Jordan Addison- WR- USC	63
  Mazi Smith- DT- Michigan	42
  Will McDonald- Edge- Iowa State	38
  Bijan Robinson- RB- Texas	36
  Michael Mayer- TE- Notre Dame	26
  Zay Flowers- WR- Boston College	24
  O’Cyrus Torrence- OG- Florida	21
  BJ Ojulari- Edge- LSU	17
  Emmanuel Forbes-CB- Mississippi State	17
  Broderick Jones- OT- Georgia	15
  Felix Anudike -Edge- Kansas State	14
  Anton Harrison- OT-Oklahoma	9
  Darnell Wright- OT- Tennesee	7
  Myle Murphy- DT- Clemson	4

  PFF’s obsession with the Eagles needing a WR continues. There were even times they had the Eagles pick Jaxon Smith-Njogba and Jordan Addison. What is your problem PFF?

  The next thing that stands out is them having Bijan Robinson still available at 30 very often. 36 times. The Eagles taking him at 10 would be very unlikely. That is just not Howie’s style. But at 30? Maybe. And it’s not completely impossible he is there. There are some mock drafts that have him falling that far. And as we have seen, more and more teams are devaluing the position. Just see how little money has been spent on RBs this off-season.  As good as Bijan is, there is a chance no teams value RB enough to spend their one first-round pick on him.

  More takeaways from these results

  • The positional breakdown was 115 Defensive Linemen, 87 WRS, 52 Offensive Linemen, 36 RBs, 26 TEs, and 17 CBs
  • A Defensive Lineman at Pick 30 makes a ton of sense. It may not necessarily be the players they mocked to them in this simulation. But as we all know, Howie loves his linemen, on either side of the ball.
  • Another site mocking a TE to the Eagles. Not gonna happen.

   

• Full Results at Pick 10

  Let’s look at the results at pick 10 across all 3 websites

  Player	Times Selected
  Jalen Carter- DT-Georgia	192
  Peter Skoronski- OT- Northwestern	157
  Jaxon Smith-Njigba- WR- Ohio State	92
  Christian Gonzalez- CB- Oregon	89
  Devon Witherspoon- CB- Illinois	79
  Calijah Kancey- EDGE- Pitt	56
  Tyree Wilson- Edge- Texas Tech	50
  Lukas Van Ness- Edge- Iowa	45
  Nolan Smith- Edge- Georgia	44
  Quentin Johnston- WR- TCU	39
  Joey Porter Jr- CB- Penn State	34
  Brian Branch- S- Alabama	26
  Bijan Robinson- RB- Texas	25
  Paris Johnson- OT- Ohio State	23
  Cam Smith- CB- South Carolina	18
  Will Anderson Jr- Edge- Alabama	13
  Myle Murphy- DT- Clemson	7
  Trenton Simpson- LB- Clemson	6
  Darnell Wright- OT- Tennesee	5

  Jalen Carter’s name came up 192 times. Something Eagles fans will be very happy to see. A lot of that is because of PFN being obsessed with giving him to the Eagles. But his name also came up a decent amount with the ESPN mock draft tool too. Peter Skoronski also seems like a pick that makes a ton of sense, though Eagles fans would likely be more mixed on that given he may not even play year one with them if that is the case.

  More takeaways from the results:

  • The positional breakdown was 407 Defensive Linemen, 220 CBs, 185 Offensive Linemen, 131 WRs, 26 Safeties, 25 RBs, and 6 LBs
  • Short of WRs being over-inflated due to PFF being weird, the actual positional breakdown seems to make a ton of sense. Based on Howies history, and everything we have heard, the Eagles will most likely be taking OL/DL at pick 10. Maybe a corner, but probably not. Definitely not an LB.
  • The idea that idea Will Anderson or Tyree Wilson will fall to the Eagles seems far-fetched. But it happened a few times in these simulations, so maybe the dream could come true.
  • The Eagles are not taking Bijan at Pick 10, and at least it seems even these sites seem to understand that. Why supposed draft experts putting out mock drafts don’t get that, who knows.
  • Christian Gonzalez is the only name that came up at pick 1o across all 3 sites.
  • 19 different players were selected at least once at pick 10, or wherever they traded down to.
  • Of those 19, 9 were selected on at least two of the 3 websites.

• Full results at Pick 30

  Player	Times Selected
  Will McDonald- Edge- Iowa State	125
  Jordan Addison- WR- USC	85
  Nolan Smith- Edge- Georgia	73
  Adetomiwa Adebawore-DT- Northwestern	61
  Felix Anudike -Edge- Kansas State	61
  BJ Ojulari- Edge- LSU	56
  Mazi Smith- DT- Michigan	49
  Emmanuel Forbes-CB- Mississippi State	41
  Anton Harrison- OT- Oklahoma	39
  Michael Mayer- TE- Notre Dame	39
  Bryan Bresee- DT- Clemson	38
  Bijan Robinson- RB- Texas	36
  Trenton Simpson- LB- Clemson	36
  Zay Flowers- WR- Boston College	33
  Jahmyr Gibbs- RB- Alabama	31
  Keion White- EDGE- Old Dominion	21
  Kelee Ringo- CB- Georgia	21
  O’Cyrus Torrence- OG- Florida	21
  Cam Smith- CB- South Carolina	20
  Isaiah Foskey- Edge- Notre Dame	19
  Calijah Kancey- Edge- Pitt	16
  Joey Porter Jr- CB- Penn State	16
  Broderick Jones- OT- Georgia	15
  Deonte Banks- CB- Mayland	11
  Quentin Johnston- WR- TCU	9
  Brian Branch- S- Alabama	7
  Darnell Wright- OT- Tennessee	7
  Lukas Van Ness- Edge- Iowa	7
  Myle Murphy- DT- Clemson	4
  Darnell Washington- TE- Georgia	3

  Will McDonald’s name came up a lot across all 3 sites. He and Zay Flowers are the only names that came up at least once on all 3 websites. But while McDonald had at least 20 selections on each site, Zay Flowers was in single digits on all but one of the websites. He is not a name getting a ton of talk here in Philly, but he would make sense. The Iowa State Edge Rusher put up huge sack numbers in 2021. They came down a bit last year, but he was still productive. The Eagles have some needs at Edge Rusher. So he very well could hear his name called if the Eagles stay at pick 30.

  Other Takeaways:

  • D-Line far and away led all positions at pick 30. A D-Lineman was selected 530 times. All 3 sites had D-Linemen as at least two of the 3 most selected players at pick 30. Which makes sense given on two of the 3 sites Peter Skoronski was the most selected player at 10. So Howie goes O-Line pick 10, D-Line pick 30.
  • The rest of the positional breakdowns are 127 WRs, 109 CBs, 82 O-Linemen, 67 RBs, 42 TEs, 36 LBs, and 7 Safeties.
  • 30 total players were selected at least once at pick 30, or wherever they traded up to
  • Of those 30, only 12 came up at least once on two of the 3 websites.

• Breakdown By Colleges

  Georgia	348
  Northwestern	218
  Iowa State	125
  Ohio State	115
  Clemson	91
  Oregon	89
  USC	85
  Illinois	79
  Alabama	77
  Pitt	72
  Texas	61
  Kansas State	61
  Notre Dame	58
  LSU	56
  Iowa	52
  Texas A&M	50
  Penn State	50
  Michigan	49
  TCU	48
  Mississippi State	41
  Oklahoma	39
  South Carolina	38
  Boston College	33
  Old Dominion	21
  Florida	21
  Tennesee	12
  Maryland	11

  • Im sure Eagles fans will be happy with Georgia being the school with the most selections
  • Georgia is also the school with the most different players selected. Jalen Carter, Nolan Smith, Kelee Ringo, and Darnell Washington.
  • Alabama and Clemson each had3 different players mocked to the Eagles at least once. Bama had Will Anderson, Jahmyr Gibbs, and Brian Branch. Clemson had Myles Murphy, Trenton Simpson, and Bryan Bresee.
  • 3 other schools had 2 different players mocked to the Eagles. Northwestern (Peter Skoronski and Adetomiwa Adebawore), Notre Dame (Michael Mayer and Isaiah Foskey), and Ohio State (Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Paris Johnson)

Sign me up for the 97.5 The Fanatic email newsletter!

Become a Fanatic MVP to get the latest info on the Philly Sports landscape, plus access to exclusive content and member-only contests.

First Name *

Last Name

Email *

Subscribe

By clicking "Subscribe" I agree to the website's terms of Service and Privacy Policy. I understand I can unsubscribe at any time.

Author Bob Cooney

Category:

• 97.5 The Fanatic
• Eagles // NFL

Tags:

NFL Draft,Philadelphia Eagles