We Simulated the Eagles Draft 1000 Times, Here are the Results

Last year, out of both boredom and the lack of a thriving social life, I simulated the Eagles draft 1000 times. Turns out that in the past calendar year, not much has changed. I am still a huge draft geek, and I still have way too much time on my hands. So I did it again. Using mock draft simulators, I ran the draft 1000 times, to see who the computer had the Eagles draft.

Last year the results were surprisingly accurate. It could not have predicted they would trade their second first-round pick for AJ Brown. But between the two picks, Jordan Davis was the most common player selected. Davis led all players, getting selected 329 total times. 252 at pick 15, and 76 at pick 18. The Eagles ended up trading up to 13 to take him. Nakobe Dean was selected 195 total times, the 4th most of any player. He ended up falling to the Eagles in the 3rd round.

This year, I changed it up a little and used 3 different draft simulators. Last year I ran all 1000 simulations through Pro Football Focus's mock draft tool. This year I used that again, but also Pro Football Network, and ESPN's new draft tool. Doing 333 on each, and then one extra on Pro Football Network to get an even 1000.

It is important to note these are not my picks. I simulated the first round, letting the computer make each pick. My only part in it was keeping track of the results. Two of the three sites did not simulate trades. Will the simulations be as accurate as they were last year? Let's see what the results were.

ESPN debuted its draft tool this year. You can find it here. Let's see who it has the Eagles taking. Starting with Pick 10.

Well, they certainly know who Howie Roseman is. The top 4 most selected players are all Linemen. With Peter Skoronski coming up most often. The Eagles do not have an immediate need at Tackle. But that has never stopped Howie from drafting an Offensive Lineman in the past. He has a draft philosophy that does not deter him from using a pick on someone even if they won't play right away. He values future returns far more than he does immediate value. And Skoronski could always play RG for a couple of years.

Just behind him are Georgia teammates Nolan Smith and Jalen Carter. Who could both satisfy future and present needs. The Eagles D Line is not a dire need, but you could never have too many DTs or edge rushers. Lukas Van Ness, the 4th most drafted player by ESPN for the Eagles, would also fit that bill.

Now let's look at who ESPN has the Eagles picking at 30.

Pick 30 on all 3 draft sites saw a much wider range of players, some making more sense than others. The common belief is that they will trade out of this pick. But that doesn't matter all that much to this simulation because all of these players could be there in the 2nd round where they traded back to anyway.

Adetomiwa Adebawore is a name suddenly being attached to the Eagles a lot. Tony Pauline from The Pro Football Network reported the Eagles are in love with him. The same guy reported the Eagles loved Cam Jurgens last year, and we saw that pan out to be true. So he is definitely a name to watch for.

Pro Football Network was the one site I used that predicted trades even when the pick is simulated. It did not have the Eagles trading up much from 10. But it did have them trade up from 30, and down a decent amount from 10. I didn't keep full track of everything they got from those trade-downs, or even exactly how often it happened. But there were a few very interesting trades that I did note that we will get to later. But for now, let's just look at the poor results of who they picked at pick 10, or with whatever pick they traded down to with it.

PFN really liked picking Jalen Carter for the Eagles. They mocked him to them at Pick 10 nearly 100 times more than any other player. He made up 46.7 % of the picks at 10 in the 334 simulations with the PFN tool. Last year, even though Jordan Davis was the most often picked player, he made up only 25% of the selections for the Eagles' first pick.

Now let's see who PFN had them picking at 30, or wherever it had them trade up to.

Apart from it being an edge rusher, PFN was far less consistent about what player the Eagles will take at 30. Nolan Smith led the way with 73 selections. But of the 12 players who got picked at least once, 6 were edge rushers. And all of them, except for Zay Flowers who came up just 3 times, are defensive players.

Most mock drafts have Nolan Smith going way before the Eagles are on the clock again. In fact, I can't find any recent mock drafts that have him available when the Eagles pick at 30. A number of those occasions came from the Eagles trading up from pick 30, into the higher 20s range. Still, it seems unlikely they can land Nolan Smith unless they do so with their first pick. The same goes for Lukas Van Ness and Joey Porter Jr.

I am just going to get this out of the way now. The Pro Football Focus results were weird. Apparently, the Eagles have a huge need at WR. Because PFF was obsessed with picking WRS, even picking two on a few occasions. Let's see what the results were at 10.

The first thing that stood out to me is how few players it ever selected. ESPN split 333 selections across 11 guys. PFN 333 across 10 guys. PFF meanwhile, just 8 total guys ever selected at pick 10. And 3 of those 8 guys have never been connected to the Eagles.

As already said, Jaxon Smith-Njigba would certainly be an exciting name, but not one that makes a ton of sense for the Eagles. The same goes for Quentin Johnston, with the added detraction of being a TCU WR. We know Eagles fans aren't big fans of them. Calijah Kancey feels like a reach at 10, with him mostly going in the high teens. And while Tyree Wilson falling to 10 would be amazing, it seems unlikely.

But as for the picks that do make some sense, Peter Skoronski once again came in as the most often selected player. Meaning he was the number 1 selected player on two of the 3 mock draft tools. Like WR, OL is not an immediate need. But Howie has never shied away from drafting an O-Linemen to stash for a year. And Peter Skoronski could play right away at RG and would give Cam Jurgens competition. Are there better uses of pick 10? Sure. But taking an Offensive Lineman at 10 is not something anyone should rule out.

Now let's see what they had the Eagles doing at Pick 30...

PFF's obsession with the Eagles needing a WR continues. There were even times they had the Eagles pick Jaxon Smith-Njogba and Jordan Addison. What is your problem PFF?

The next thing that stands out is them having Bijan Robinson still available at 30 very often. 36 times. The Eagles taking him at 10 would be very unlikely. That is just not Howie's style. But at 30? Maybe. And it's not completely impossible he is there. There are some mock drafts that have him falling that far. And as we have seen, more and more teams are devaluing the position. Just see how little money has been spent on RBs this off-season.  As good as Bijan is, there is a chance no teams value RB enough to spend their one first-round pick on him.

Let's look at the results at pick 10 across all 3 websites

Jalen Carter's name came up 192 times. Something Eagles fans will be very happy to see. A lot of that is because of PFN being obsessed with giving him to the Eagles. But his name also came up a decent amount with the ESPN mock draft tool too. Peter Skoronski also seems like a pick that makes a ton of sense, though Eagles fans would likely be more mixed on that given he may not even play year one with them if that is the case.

Will McDonald's name came up a lot across all 3 sites. He and Zay Flowers are the only names that came up at least once on all 3 websites. But while McDonald had at least 20 selections on each site, Zay Flowers was in single digits on all but one of the websites. He is not a name getting a ton of talk here in Philly, but he would make sense. The Iowa State Edge Rusher put up huge sack numbers in 2021. They came down a bit last year, but he was still productive. The Eagles have some needs at Edge Rusher. So he very well could hear his name called if the Eagles stay at pick 30.

Other Takeaways: