Trust your own eyes…the Eagles are that good
by John Kincade
Last week we went through people using recency bias to convince themselves that the Giants were actually a competitive challenge to the Eagles. Despite all of the data that was available, including our own exercise where we determined no more than 4 Giants would start for the Eagles, people thought the Giants wildcard weekend win was a statement. It actually was, the statement is trust what we know. The Eagles ARE that good.
The two best teams over the course of the NFL season will square off on Sunday. That sounds daunting and the 49ers are well coached on both sides of the ball. So what should you believe could be the difference? Oh, I’ve got quite a few.
Brock Purdy is just getting started in his NFL career and he’s never faced a challenge like this one. Dallas was a very impressive competitor, but that game saw the score tied at 9 in the 4th quarter. The Dallas defense is solid, but it managed to frustrate and shut down Purdy as a passer consistently. The completion chart shows you everything. Purdy can’t go to his left, or couldn’t vs Dallas, to complete a pass. He was a check down Charlie and completed just a handful of passes over 15 yards. He needs time to let a play develop and Dallas didn’t let him. The Eagles defense is far more menacing and they should be able to make Purdy have to adjust his game to beat them.
This will also be just the 3rd start of his career on the road. Previously he played at Seattle and Las Vegas this season and snuck past the Seahawks and edged the Raiders in overtime. He doesn’t make a lot of mistakes, but also isn’t incredibly mobile. If the Eagles crowd can cause some tension and the defense can pen him in the sacks should pile up.
The 49ers Number One defensive statistics were accumulated by facing a terrible division. In comparison, the Eagles did give up 4 more points per game, but they faced the top division in football that was one Week 17 win by the Commanders away from sending all 4 teams to the playoffs. The 49ers defense plays a lot of zone, the most in the league and had 44 sacks. The Eagles got critiqued for playing “too much zone” and still managed 70 sacks.
Last week nobody wanted to believe the Eagles were ready for the challenge last weekend despite their amazing regular season numbers. The way they stumbled down the stretch caused a lot of people to doubt they were prepared for a post season test. They took the test and scored an A+. Nothing could have been more impressive. They were fired out of a cannon and kept the intensity up for four quarters. They even managed to empty the benches a bit which could prove advantageous this Sunday. The 49ers are good but the Eagles have been great. SF lost at Chicago, Denver and Atlanta already this year. It’s time to not over think this. Don’t doubt the Eagles can deliver.
