REVISITED: The Eagles’ Perfect Playoff Path
*EDIT*: Ah, how great it feels, to not only watch the Eagles punch their ticket to Super Bowl 57, but to be absolutely right once again about the path they would take to get there. Go ahead, take the time to read this post from back on January 10th:
That’s right folks, it’s playoff time in the NFL, and the Philadelphia Eagles sit atop everybody in the NFC as the #1 seed in the conference after their 14-3 regular season. It was about as close to a perfect regular season as we may ever see here in Philly, and now, the birds are perched and waiting to see who will travel into Lincoln Financial Field for a Divisional Round matchup. The Eagles have already guaranteed themselves a week of rest and home field advantage throughout the playoffs by locking up the top seed, but now we have the opportunity to get a little greedy. What is the perfect path for the Philadelphia Eagles as they try to advance to the Super Bowl for the first time since 2018, and how realistic is it that that path actually happens to be the one the birds get to take?
Now let’s not get caught up in all that false bravado of “we’ll take on anybody, no worries”. Sure, the Eagles are the top seed, and that means that in theory they should be favored in any matchup they run into in the playoffs. That doesn’t mean that we shouldn’t root for what would be the easiest path to success. Remember the 2017 run? Sure, it was magical, but the Eagles got a much more preferable set of opponents than what they could’ve run into. The Atlanta Falcons went on the road to Los Angeles and knocked off the Rams, who were a better team, to assure the Eagles wouldn’t have to play them in the Divisional Round. Then, of course, you have the Minneapolis Miracle, which cleared New Orleans out of the way in favor of the Case Keenum-led Vikings. The Saints will tell you that they would’ve beat the Eagles in that NFC Championship, which is inaccurate, but they very well may have put up a better fight than 38-7. I’m not saying the Eagles won the Super Bowl because of things breaking their way opponent-wise, but it certainly didn’t hurt to see some of the tougher teams in the conference go down before facing Philly.
Ok, so now that we’re in agreement that the easier path can make a difference for a team’s championship potential, what is that path this year for the Eagles? And can that be a realistic option? Well, let’s look at the Wild Card round. The Eagles will play the lowest remaining seed, so they only have 4 options of who they could play: Tampa Bay, Dallas, New York, or Seattle. Now let’s eliminate one option for reality’s sake: the Seattle Seahawks ARE NOT going into San Francisco and beating the 49ers. While the Seahawks are probably the weakest team, it’s not realistic to expect Seattle to move on. Out of the other 3, I’d say the most preferable by a mile would be the New York Giants. They have to travel to Minnesota in the Wild Card round, but some people (myself included) see the Vikings as a paper tiger, possibly set for a 1st round exit. The Dallas-Tampa Bay winner is going to have either a better roster in the Cowboys’ case, or the all-time greatest QB and player in NFL history in the Buccaneers’ case. Yeah, I’ll take the Giants over both of those.
Let’s say the Eagles take care of business over the Giants, and it’s NFC Championship time. This next one might sound nonsensical at first, but hear me out. If the options are Tampa, Dallas, or San Francisco, I’m pulling for the 49ers. I know your initial thought: “But they’re the hottest team in the conference and have a ridiculously talented roster!!”. Yes, but they have the least proven QB. I don’t want any piece of Tom Brady in any circumstance, and while Dak Prescott is imploding before our eyes this season, the Cowboys are a team that is familiar with the Eagles, and has the confidence that they can score on this defense. The 49ers are a new opponent, and they’re playing with Brock Purdy under center. In the modern NFL, QBs win playoff games, and Purdy is the least proven of the options. So the ideal path is NYG, SF, and then whoever comes out of the AFC. That will most likely be either Kansas City or Buffalo, and flip a coin there. I’ll lean KC because Buffalo seems like a team of destiny this season, but that’s not really based in logical thinking. There you have it, though. In my mind, that’s your ideal (realistic) path to the Super Bowl for the 2022-23 Philadelphia Eagles.
*EDIT*: From the desk of author of this article, Connor B. Thomas: “Told ya.”
