5 Numbers To Make You Optimistic About the Phillies Chances
The World Series is finally here. After 4 long days in between the Phillies won the NLCS and today we finally have game 1 of the World Series. Phillies vs Astros. David vs Goliath. The team with the best odds to win it all, vs the team who had one of the worst odds to win it all. How can the Phillies beat this team so many called the best in baseball? Here are 5 numbers that should help you be more optimistic, and perhaps even confident, in the Phillies’ chances going into tonight.
7.05
A lot has been made about Justin Verlander’s awful track record in the World Series. And rightfully so. He is 0-6, with a 5.68 ERA across 7 World Series starts. He has been here a lot and has had very little success. Verlander has never gotten past 6 innings, has given up 3 ers or more 5 times, and 4 or more 3 times. But he is not alone in World Series struggles. Because if you add the other 3 Astros starters, the stats actually get worse. As a group, they have a 7.05 ERA and are 1-8. Granted the sample size is much smaller with Christain Javier (12.0 ERA), Framber Valdez (19.29 ERA), and Lance McCullers (3.52 ERA). But apart from McCullers, all of them have struggled in their few chances to pitch at the highest level.
Last year Valdez got jumped by the Braves. He gave up 5 earned runs in less than 3 innings both times he was the starting pitcher. And while Christain Javier did not get a chance to start against the Braves. But he came out of the bullpen three times and gave up 2 runs in two of them. They have all pitched very well this year. But there is a stink from past postseason performances on all of them besides Lance. There is a reason to like the Phillies’ chances vs the Astros’ starters.
.206
The Pitchers are not the only ones who have struggled in the World Series. There are 7 hitters getting at least some at-bats on the Astros that were around last year for the Braves series. And those 7 hit 27 for 131 in that series (.206). They also had just 2 home runs, both from Jose Altuve, and only 8 RBIs. Now granted, they were very good in the two World Series before that. But they struggled badly vs the Braves. Alvarez and Bregman in particular were brutal. They lost two hitters that were successful for them Michael Brantley and Carlos Correa. But they replaced them with Jeremy Pena (ALCS MVP) and Chaz McCormick, who have both been swinging a hot bat.
But it is still worth noting their top guys, came up very small the last time they were in the World Series. As intimidating as the lineup looks, they are capable of going cold. And the Phillies pitching has for the most part been very good.
1.351
Bryce Harper has been on another level in these playoffs. His OPS over the course of these 3 series is 1.351. That is the 6th highest of All-Time for players with at least 40 at-bats in the playoffs. Everyone ahead of him on that list is either a Hall of Famer, is soon to be, or would be one if it wasn’t for steroids. He is just 3 extra-base hits away from tying the record for most extra-base hits in a post-season run, with David Freese and Randy Arozarena holding the current record at 14. He needs 11 hits to tie Arozarena’s record for most hits in a postseason.
This is a historic run for Harper, full of historic moments. He is playing the best baseball of his career on the biggest stage of his career. He will be the best player on the field from either dugout in this series. Any team with a player like him has to like their chances to win.
2.57
Rob Thomson made the somewhat controversial choice to start Aaron Nola in game 1, leaving Zack Wheeler for game 2. Many questioned why he wouldn’t use his best pitcher in game 1. But with this choice, Wheeler will now get to pitch in game 2 with 5 days rest. Wheeler has a 2.57 ERA with 5 days of rest. He is on another level when he gets that extra rest. Oh, and he gets to do it twice in this series. And if you are worried about Nola after his last start, he was dominant in the starts against the Braves and Cardinals. He gave up 0 runs and was nearly untouchable. And the last time he faced this Astros team, he took a perfect game into the 7th.
1.000
The Phillies get to play 3 games at home in this series. They don’t lose at home. Granted the Astros haven’t lost at all, but they haven’t played at Citizen’s Bank Park. If they can win just one of 3 Nola or Wheeler starts in Houston, then they can get by just winning their home games. If they can take 2 of those 3, then even better. This crowd has made home-field advantage a real thing in baseball. And there is reason to like their chances anytime they are playing at home.
