Conflicting Views About Unpredictable Nature of MLB Playoffs
A disappointing loss in the National League Division Series has the Philadelphia Phillies searching for answers. They’ve entered their last two series in the MLB Playoffs as heavy favorites.
The Arizona Diamondbacks finished the 2023 season with an 84-78 record, but they stunned the red hot Phillies to win the National League pennant.
Related Content: Dave Dombrowski Haunted by Familiar Enemy in NLDS
The New York Mets needed a torrid pace and a lackadaisical second half from the Phillies to even land within six games of the division crown. However, they rode their momentum to an NLDS upset.
Some credible voices within baseball circles believe the microscopic sample size of a series in the MLB Playoffs creates so much unpredictability that playoff games require minimal analysis beyond a random outcome in the big picture.
Others will scrutinize every detail of a playoff exit with the undying passion that characterizes professional sports.
How much should the Phillies consider random, unpredictable outcomes in the MLB Playoffs for their disappointment?
Dave Dombrowski on the MLB Playoffs
Dave Dombrowski doesn’t buy the idea of a “crapshoot” where the best MLB teams have essentially the same odds as lesser opponents in the postseason. He addressed the conversation with John Clark during spring training.
“I don’t think it’s a crapshoot. I also think that there’s a way that clubs can excel for the long season and maybe aren’t quite as good for the playoffs and vice versa… Sometimes you give during the regular season to know that you’re going to be more prepared for the postseason.” –Dave Dombrowski
Instead of just crossing their fingers, the Phillies attempted to find the most precise way to manage the 162-game schedule to optimize their postseason chances with as many advantages as they could identify.
The future Hall of Fame executive pointed to starting pitching as a key ingredient to teams built for playoff runs. A rotation with Zack Wheeler, Cristopher Sanchez, Aaron Nola, and Ranger Suarez looked stronger than any of the other 11 playoff teams.
The Phillies emphasized the priority of a strong start to the regular season in 2024. They jumped out to a commanding lead in the NL East by Memorial Day and made decisions with long-term health in mind.
J.T. Realmuto missed 31 games with a midseason knee surgery. The ability for a key contributor to elect for the procedure during the regular season was related to the organization’s confidence level in earning a postseason berth.
The Phillies also handled a midseason IL stint for Ranger Suarez, one of the best pitchers in baseball during the first half, with extreme caution. Rob Thomson publicly insisted the extended timeline was intended to make sure Suarez would be fresh for the playoffs.
Thomson also emphasized the first-round playoff bye and extra rest as a more important factor than home field advantage when addressing playoff seeding scenarios.
The New York Mets did not check the boxes that Dombrowski talked about.
They finished a stretch of eight games in seven days to win Game 3 of the NL Wild Card Series. They rested their pitching for only one day before traveling to Citizens Bank Park for NLDS Game 1.
Carlos Mendoza faced serious fatigue questions with his high-leverage arms throughout the series. Somehow, the Mets controlled the momentum of the series substantially and won three of four.
A Missing Thought the Phillies Must Consider
The emphasis and execution of the fast start helped the Phillies win their first NL East since 2011. It allowed Realmuto, Suarez, and other injured players to handle their health cautiously.
Earning a bye eliminated the risk of a fluky wild card round exit and provided the luxury of aligning a stud pitching rotation.
The Phillies accomplished their spring training goals to use the first 162 games to optimize for a playoff run. Why didn’t it work? Consider another theory about the MLB Playoffs.
The Los Angeles Dodgers won 111 games in 2022 and 100 more in 2023. They won one game combined in their two postseason trips that resulted from the dominant regular seasons.
Matt Gelb spoke about a feeling within the Dodgers organization that “cruising to these divisions the last few years has really hurt them in the postseason.”
The Atlanta Braves could draw similar conclusions after losing to the Phillies in the NLDS in consecutive postseasons. Some teams playing without the pressure of a playoff race by September don’t ramp up with playoff intensity before the bye week.
The Phillies reached the All-Star Break in 2024 at 62-34 with a comfortable 8 ½ game lead in the division. Their 33-33 record to finish caused minimal stress in the standings. The lowest depths of their second half malaise dropped them from the best record in baseball, but they always had the comfort of a solid NL East lead.
The Mets, meanwhile, lived on the edge past the final scheduled day of the regular season and clinched a wild card berth with a win in a makeup doubleheader.
They managed the rigors of the schedule and kept their momentum going into Citizens Bank Park. No analysis of potentially unpredictable outcomes will change that for the Phillies.
Dave Dombrowski will instead head back to the drawing board to evaluate the failed strategy of handling 162 games in the best manner to create advantages in the MLB Playoffs.
