Phillies All-Star Break Check-In: Starting Pitchers
The Philadelphia Phillies enter the MLB All-Star Break with the best record in baseball at 62-34 (.646). They lead the National League East by 8.5 games over the second-place Atlanta Braves.
97.5 The Fanatic will analyze the four key elements of the team at the All-Star Break, the unofficial midway point of the 2024 MLB season, and their chances to win a World Series.
- Phillies All-Star Break Check-In: Position Players
- Phillies All-Star Break Check-In: Bullpen Pitchers
- Phillies All-Star Break Check-In: Bench Players
- Starting Pitchers
Phillies Starting Pitchers
The starting rotation carried the Phillies into a solid NL East lead with an otherworldly effort during the early months of the season. Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Ranger Suarez, and Cristopher Sanchez dominated throughout the first half.
The Phillies reached the break with the best ERA among starting pitchers in the majors at 3.22. They have a solid lead over the second-place Seattle Mariners. The Braves sit eighth, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have battled injuries to stay afloat at 12th.
Each of Philadelphia’s top four starting pitchers rank in the top 30 in fWAR, and the same four rank in the top 34 in bWAR.
Wheeler, Suarez, and Sanchez all posted ERAs under 3.00. All three earned National League All-Star selections.
Nola earned the “Mr. Consistency” label from Rob Thomson after his most recent shutdown performance against the high-powered Dodgers. He’s narrowly outdone Sanchez and Suarez with a 1.02 WHIP, one of the best predictive pitching stats in baseball.
Ricky Bottalico has consistently complimented the Phillies staff for taking an intentional approach to pitching that gets lost in the modern MLB era with extra emphasis on velocity and spin rate.
Wheeler shows off a fastball around 96 miles per hour. Nola and Suarez can fool hitters with nasty breaking pitches. Sanchez has made drastic improvement with his change-up. However, they’ve all mixed pitches, identified ways to attack hitters, and put everything together with the help of Caleb Cotham.
Thomson spoke about his rotation’s collective mentality when they started to catch fire in April.
“I think most teams get that way when their rotation’s going well. They get on a roll. They want to sort of outdo each other. It’s kind of a competition amongst each other, so I think that’s a good thing.” -Rob Thomson
Future Concerns: Health, Depth
Spencer Turnbull stormed out of the gates with a 1.67 ERA in six starts before Taijuan Walker took his place in the rotation. Both depth starters ended up on the injured list by late June, however.
The Phillies leaned too heavily on Michael Mercado, who might not have much of a major league future after two tough outings heading into the All-Star Break.
They hope Tommy Phillips can provide serviceable innings in the fifth spot, but the South Jersey native has made only two big league appearances.
The Phillies don’t have much depth behind their top four, which is an immediate problem because of the health of some of their top guys.
Zack Wheeler left his start against the Dodgers on July 9 with tension in his back. He plans to make his next start on 12 days of rest after updated messaging from the organization classified his issue as back spasms.
Ranger Suarez has also experienced back tightness. He gave up 15 earned runs and 22 hits in only 15 ⅔ innings over his final three starts before the break. His ERA rose nearly a full run from 1.83 to 2.76. He’ll rest a total of 11 days in between starts before taking the hill against the Minnesota Twins on July 23.
Both Phillies aces backed out of the MLB All-Star Game.
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The staff has thrown the second most innings of any MLB rotation. While the performance helped the team start so successfully, the Phillies don’t need to push arguably their two best starters too hard in the dog days of summer. The priority is to have them healthy in October.
Matt Gelb shared on 97.5 The Fanatic that the Phillies could use a six-man starting rotation at some point in August. Rob Thomson later confirmed the likelihood of the strategy.
Look for Thomson and the organization to handle the pitching staff a little differently during the second half of the season with the long-term goal of a World Series in mind now that they achieved the fast start they were shooting for.